Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations & General Weather Banter

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by ice_man, Nov 6, 2009.

  1. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    The high is not particularly strong, though i do agree with you ice man. Could be a bit from column a, and a bit from column b for this one. But GFS has been holding strong on this for the past 3 days now. It definately shows the difference in data inputs between the models here.
     
  2. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    LAPS only shows a little moisture (<5mm for most of Victoria) , but a strong southerly change.
    GFS has the 540 line in to Victoria on Sunday night. I just can't see the GFS moisture levels coming off.
    EC is more in line with LAPS. EC is showing the cool unstable weather should continue right through to next weekend.
    I think we'll get a few showers Sunday / Monday, but nothing too much. Not a great day to go on the water on Sunday though.
     
  3. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Yes a big difference in the models, as Verm said, it has been holding strong on the GFS charts for at least 3 days now.

    Need a bit more rain as I have taken a fair bit out of the water tanks after the few hot days [​IMG]
     
    #353 skiflat, Jan 15, 2010
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  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    We going on EC you should get dribs and drabs through to Sunday week and there should no need to water over that period (assuming you're in Melbourne).
     
    #354 Claude Cat, Jan 15, 2010
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  5. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    GFS is just refusing to let this one go. BoM has downgraded it again, only 5mm at best anywhere in Vic. I'm hoping for the scenario GFS is predicting, but I'm seeing the high mowing it down before anything significant happens in Vic.
     
  6. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Sounds about right to me too Iceman
     
    #356 The Plowking, Jan 16, 2010
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  7. BenLomond Iceman

    BenLomond Iceman One of Us

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    BOM is forcasting a sharp cold change for tassie on sunday arvo with snow on the higher peaks. Snow-forcast is predicting 6cm for the Ben on sunday arvo/night. A bit optomistic i think though it will be cold enough for snow above 1400m for sure. !
     
  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    GFS has given up on this one too, at least for Victoria. Might see a shower or two between tonight and Monday.
    540 line up to Bass Straight on Sunday, so Tasmania should see snow showers in the mountains.
     
  9. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Slight upgrade from BoM this morning. GFS still maintaining reasonable rain for southern Vic.

    Showers on the radar already, will probably increase later.
     
  10. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    First Coral Sea /Queensland tropical low/cyclone has been showing up on the 7-14 day models for next week
     
  11. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    When i go and have a look at GFS's LWT charts it's a bit well, umm on drugs, a loop!? I wish i could post the chart to explain, but cant from here.
     
  12. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    LAPS has gone mad with the predictions for the current system. I'm believing it though, we've had 8mm today and looks set to continue through the night. GFS' crazy predictions actually look within the realms of possibility now.
     
  13. ratherb@thesnow

    ratherb@thesnow Hard Yards

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Same here (mornington) got about 8 or 9 mm since about 6pm tonight, coming thru in waves now with some pretty heavy rain, fingers crossed.
     
  14. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Baw Baw AWS crashed again at the worst possible time. If my 10 degree rule is correct atm, it is snowing up there now.

    Mount Hotham is coldest atm (1.0C), but nothing's falling [​IMG]

    Buller not far behind with 1.6C, and they are getting light showers, 1.4mm since midday.
     
    #364 ice_man, Jan 17, 2010
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  15. snowpyro

    snowpyro Hard Yards

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    0.2C @ Buller... Australian Summer [​IMG]
     
    #365 snowpyro, Jan 18, 2010
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  16. ahronshapiro

    ahronshapiro Hard Yards

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    And precip is currently falling... I'd have to believe there will be a dusting at the summit at dawn.

    I believe that it is snowing tonight on Baw Baw but I have nothing but my gut feeling to back it up. If it is snowing there, I reckon there'd be more than a dusting in the morning.
     
    #366 ahronshapiro, Jan 18, 2010
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  17. wangster

    wangster A Local

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Confirmed snow up at Perisher. Check the Mt P cam
     
  18. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    pretty.
     
  19. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    15mm here, still going, tanks filled up overnight, in the middle of January wtf!? Crazy storm on the way to work, wellington road was a river, it was crazy i reckon it would have dropped 10mm in 10mins.
     
  20. socold

    socold A Local

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    best cover so far this year
    [​IMG]
     
    #370 socold, Jan 18, 2010
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  21. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Correct. A couple of cm's, going by the cams.

    We've had 23mm since yesterday morning... and still going! Radar image looks brilliant atm.
     
    #371 ice_man, Jan 18, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 26, 2013
  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Absolutely soaked riding the bike to work this morning. The heaviest rain I've ridden in for a long time.
     
  23. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Woke up about 8am, heard the rain and went back to sleep til just before 9am. So nice to wake up to rain on the roof.

    Only 10mm here, but 27mm at Coldstream

    Heater on in the house as well now [​IMG]
     
    #373 skiflat, Jan 18, 2010
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  24. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Yeah i had the heater on at work this morning, wtf?

    Had a few heavy showers come through, looks good out towards gippsland.
     
  25. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    The main Melbourne radar (Laverton) has been down for about 10-14 days now and the backup one at Melbourne Airport is in use again...

    The next 7 days is looking nice for Melbourne, no silly hot days, Mid 20's to 30, if there was another day or two of rain in the mix it would be perfect!

    I have emailed the BOM for an timeframe for it to be fixed.

    Also, it appears that GFS was correct for this "rain event" ?
     
  26. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    10am lake mountain cam showing some snow (as is Baw Baw).
     
  27. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    So this is summer in Australia... [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
    #377 ice_man, Jan 18, 2010
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  28. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    You should have told them to fix the Baw Baw AWS too... [​IMG]

    And yes I believe GFS got the moisture levels correct, despite EC and BoM both going against it. Here, anyway. How much rain has everyone else had?
     
    #378 ice_man, Jan 18, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  29. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Yeah, i had faith in GFS and it came off, to be honest it was holding strong for quite a few days.
     
  30. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Same! Thankfully I had on full wet gear so I was dry ... except for my shoes.
     
    #380 Rush, Jan 18, 2010
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  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Wet from the waist down. All good fun.
     
    #381 Claude Cat, Jan 18, 2010
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  32. rangerider

    rangerider A Local

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    [​IMG] I made it by 1 minute. [​IMG]
     
    #382 rangerider, Jan 18, 2010
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  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    It depends upon where you were. Everything east of Melbourne did ok, but Melbourne itself, for example got only 5mm. Other western suburbs did even worse.
    I think the results were somewhere between what GFS and EC suggested. Certainly GFS had 50 to 100mm for Melbourne early last week. By the end of the week it was down to 10 to 20mm.
     
    #383 Claude Cat, Jan 18, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  34. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Fairly typical of a southerly system, around the bottom of a high. Gippsland has not had many of late. Last year everything came from the W-NW.
    If i had a dollar for every one I overheard saying "what weird weather" yesterday......
    [​IMG]
     
    #384 The Plowking, Jan 19, 2010
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  35. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Talking to your plants again PK? [​IMG]
     
    #385 Vermillion, Jan 19, 2010
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  36. Mr Bean

    Mr Bean One of Us

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    It was a welcome drop. St Andrews had 23mm in total yesterday. Up the hill at Kinglake they had around 30+mm.
     
  37. agentBM

    agentBM Part of the Furniture

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    #387 agentBM, Jan 19, 2010
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  38. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    I'm surprised its only happened 8 times in 40 years. My feeling is that it happens in Victoria more often.

    What that story also shows is how short the record keeping is for some Alpine areas for weather data. E.g. when Charlotte's pass recorded a record low April or May temperature last year (proof of global cooling etc.) no-one mentioned that records only existed since the 1970's.
     
    #388 Rush, Jan 19, 2010
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  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    BOM say (for what it's worth) the next three months will be cooler (both maximums and minimums) that normal in the SE.
    Looks hot for SE QLD and northern NSW though
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    Rainfall is expected to be average (55% chance of exceeding median for much of Victoria and SA).
     
    #389 Claude Cat, Jan 19, 2010
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  40. Mr Bean

    Mr Bean One of Us

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Yeah, just read that CC. My instincts tell me that we are in for a cold, wet winter, along the lines of 1990 or 1991. No scientific mumbo-jumbo to back it up, just a feeling [​IMG]
     
    #390 Mr Bean, Jan 19, 2010
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  41. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Well rainfall is average this month, it's a start at least.
     
  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Summer in general has felt a little cooler than usual.
     
  43. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    [​IMG]

    Data disagrees. December looks about average. January was running about 5 degrees above Average in Melbourne but this week should pull it back to average by the month's end.
     
    #393 Rush, Jan 19, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  44. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Above average temp-wise though, but only just. I think it's because to date we've only had 1 stretch of 40+ weather. This time last year we'd had 2.2mm of rain, in 2010 we're up to 50mm at my place. The rain just the other day has also reduced the risk of a serious bushfire, at least until Feb i reckon.
     
  45. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Might be due to the fact we've had more very cold and very hot days. Havent seen a week-long stretch of 28C+ for a while.
     
    #395 Vermillion, Jan 19, 2010
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  46. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Yeah I've noticed that too. Most of the Highs and Lows have been moving along at a fairly decent rate..no big high pressure system has sat over Australia for a week or so pushing the lows down to the south.
     
  47. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    It happens up high a few times every summer but thredbo is 1350m and cooma around 800m ASL. Pretty rare for it to fall there in summer. The systems had good timing with coldest air hitting at the coldest part of the day (early morning). That let the temperatures fall enough to let snow fall down low. Meanwhile when the sun came up temps were pretty marginal at 1900m. If the same cold burst had hit in the middle of the day i'm guessing snow above 1800m only.
     
    #397 Snow Blowey, Jan 19, 2010
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  48. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    We're up to 40mm here. Below average historically for January, but better than every year since (and including) 2007. Month isn't over yet though...
     
    #398 ice_man, Jan 19, 2010
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  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    The charts don't show anything significant for the next 10 days or so.
     
  50. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    !! Nah down the shops,at the dog park, at the checkout......ok and some plants
     
    #400 The Plowking, Jan 19, 2010
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