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Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations & General Weather Banter

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by ice_man, Nov 6, 2009.

  1. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Im sure your dog said the weather was weird too. [​IMG]

    Im not complaining about milder days during Jan, im hoping there is another rain event at the beginning of feb, just to keep the ground a bit wetter and the grass green which should hopefully stop any major fires.
     
    #401 Vermillion, Jan 19, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  2. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Weatherzone long range forecast and GFS have been hinting at just that for a few days now. Fingers crossed.
     
    #402 ice_man, Jan 19, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  3. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Very clever Kelpie or Dillusional owner.
    ^ Iceman- mmm, Inland trough and a front. No real moisture showing for those dates yet -however take that with a grain of salt atm
     
    #403 The Plowking, Jan 20, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  4. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Im seeing that too, the moisture could well pick up, it's sort of disappearing into nothing at the moment. Could be a good pre-cursor for some storms too.

    For now im just enjoying the sunshine, not often you say that in Jan but it's been a few days of cool, cloudy rubbish for this time of year.
     
  5. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Weather. Not much in Victoria. Groundhog week
     
  6. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Tropical low is progged to shift down south over the week/weekend and produce some good inland totals. Im not sure if i really believe some of the totals that have been forecast though, seems excessive.

    Should be another nice weekend in Melbourne though, for the tennis finals or something.
     
  7. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    #407 Undies, Jan 27, 2010
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  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    EC and GFS show the moisture mostly being confined to western NSW, that's got to be good for the Murray / Darling system.
    Mind you picking what Ex TC Olga will really do is still black magic.
    [​IMG]
     
    #408 Claude Cat, Jan 27, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  9. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    #409 The Plowking, Jan 28, 2010
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  10. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    EC looking interesting for Sunday through to mid week.
     
  11. socold

    socold A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    #411 socold, Jan 28, 2010
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  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Nice -where abouts?
     
  13. socold

    socold A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Port Stephens, North East of Newcastle
     
  14. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Something looks to be brewing around the 5th now.
     
  15. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Yeh, EC seems to agree. I still think it's very hard to make a call on next week while the ex TC (perhaps soon be a TC again) wanders around the gulf.
     
  16. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    GFS now showing the moisture from Olga reaching Victoria on the 3rd and bringing reasonable falls through to the 5th.
    Still looks great for western NSW and the Darling system
    [​IMG]
     
    #416 Claude Cat, Jan 30, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  17. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    havent seen maps like the last few months charts for a long time......
     
  18. Mr Bean

    Mr Bean One of Us

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Certainly a different pattern compared to the past few years. Not that I'm complaining [​IMG]
     
    #418 Mr Bean, Jan 30, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  19. ben4386

    ben4386 Hard Yards

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    some storms starting to develop west of melbourne, looks like at least 10mm of rain in some of the storm cells.

    should be an interesting arvo
     
  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Thunderstorm warning is out and the rain appears to be just reaching the outskirts of Melbourne.
     
  21. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Poor performance but better than a kick in the nuts. Got 3mm here, came down quick so i filled the tanks up a little bit.
     
  22. h2oskier

    h2oskier One of Us

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Spent an hour driving through very solid rain north and west of bendigo yesterday evening. Some farms will have got more than the 10-15mm the bom is saying this morning in the area. [​IMG]
     
    #422 h2oskier, Feb 1, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  23. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Yeah i heard up to 20mm in isolated areas.

    Looks ok for rain around 10mm over a pretty wide area of VIC later on this week into the weekend, then clearing quickly. The remnants of olga.
     
  24. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Yeh, we only got 1 or 2mm. But better than nothing.
    A little bit of rain Thursday / Friday this week.
     
    #424 Claude Cat, Feb 1, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  25. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Didn't get a drop here last night. I watched as the approaching shower band literaly died out right in front of us.

    Thursday/Friday... BoM has been suggesting for some days now that we could see over 20mm in some areas. GFS not agreeing with it though.
     
  26. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    GFS is showing about 10mm for that period. It's hard to tell how far that ex TC Olga's moisture will get.
    Still looks great for QLD and NW NSW.
     
  27. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Yeah it's going to be hit and miss risky to forecast stuff. BOM are putting a bob each way at the moment (not the models, their forecasts).
     
  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    GFS now showing around 50mm for 3rd to 5th around Melbourne.
    The forecast period is very volatile.
     
  29. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Recent obs from southern queensland indicating 30-100mm+ fell across the Darling Downs over the past 36 hours. SHould make for some good runoff into the system which is already runnig a banker (downstream of bourke anyway).
     
  30. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    GFS on board now for thurs/fri.
     
  31. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    woah im late on the scene.
     
    #431 Vermillion, Feb 1, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  32. h2oskier

    h2oskier One of Us

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Its awesome reading flood warnings with comments like.. 'expected to peak in mid feb'... and that was before this latest system!
     
  33. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    More water in Lake Eyre leading into winter? [​IMG]
     
    #433 ice_man, Feb 1, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  34. Dacer

    Dacer Hard Yards

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    According to the lake eyre yachting club, the water won't reach the lake. But I reckon we'll see about that.....
     
  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    9pm GFS looks even better for eastern states.

    [​IMG]
     
    #435 Claude Cat, Feb 2, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  36. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Could be very widespread.
     
  37. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Absolutely bucketing in Sydney city at the moment
     
  38. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Both GFS and GASP all showing VERY good total for all over VIC for Thurs-Saturday

    Hmm the tanks do need a top-up they are 1/2 empty
     
  39. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Yeah im just over half at the moment, could be a good opportunity to water hard on Thursday just before the rain then let them fill fully up.
     
  40. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    30mm for me = 3000 litres back in the tanks.

    Not gonna do that much for me, but I can turn the sprinklers for the grass off for 5 or so days at least.
     
  41. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    From someone in the office:

     
    #441 Rush, Feb 3, 2010
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  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Well GFS is showing good rainfall, but only a very small part is showing 100mm+.
    This is for the next 8 days. If we get 25mm I will be happy.

    [​IMG]

    BTW pretty much all that rain is in the next 4 or so days.
    Long range GFS shows some possible rain Friday week, but that's a long way off and I wouldn't be putting any money on that yet.
     
    #442 Claude Cat, Feb 3, 2010
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  43. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Yeah im with you CC, 30mm would be fine with me for this time of year.

    BTW i had just over average rainfall for Jan, even though most of it was in the first half of the month. Bit of a contrast to Melb city which had about half.
     
  44. agentBM

    agentBM Part of the Furniture

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    #444 agentBM, Feb 3, 2010
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  45. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    BoM models believe the western half of Vic will get the best rain. GFS believes the eastern half will get the most.

    [​IMG] Wish I could say ALL of Vic will get over 25mm. However I'm thinking South Gippsland (my area) will miss a lot of it.
     
    #445 ice_man, Feb 3, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  46. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    #446 Claude Cat, Feb 3, 2010
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  47. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Weird setups for the next 10 days.
     
  48. h2oskier

    h2oskier One of Us

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    nice little moisture upgrade this morning for central vic on GFS for today! [​IMG]

    lets see if it comes off...
     
    #448 h2oskier, Feb 4, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  49. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Yeah it looks like it's 'centered' in the middle of VIC.

    Cue Dragon...rain coming...
     
  50. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Yes, but how often do you see those 100mm GFS predictions come off for Victoria? If we get a 1/3 of that, I will be very happy.