Day to Day Sunday 10th - Friday 15th October 2021 Troughs and Fronts Eastern Seaboard

AshestoAshes

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 3, 2019
482
1,149
263
21
Voyager Point NSW
Hey Everyone,

I thought i'd put up a thread for this week's event. It's looking like a week-long event with a decent storm set up especially tomorrow.

Tomorrow will see the most activity for Sydney Siders the trough brings through a southerly which is likely to collide with this warm tropical airmass moving in.
Screen Shot 2021-10-09 at 7.50.51 pm.png


The focus then moves north as a low moves in from the inland bringing rain and storms to Northern NSW and Southern Queensland. For my neck of the woods, tomorrow seems like one of the better storm set ups in past years.

Screen Shot 2021-10-09 at 7.53.16 pm.png
 

Wavey

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 3, 2019
840
1,653
263
Wollongong, NSW
Hey Everyone,

I thought i'd put up a thread for this week's event. It's looking like a week-long event with a decent storm set up especially tomorrow.

Tomorrow will see the most activity for Sydney Siders the trough brings through a southerly which is likely to collide with this warm tropical airmass moving in.
Screen Shot 2021-10-09 at 7.50.51 pm.png


The focus then moves north as a low moves in from the inland bringing rain and storms to Northern NSW and Southern Queensland. For my neck of the woods, tomorrow seems like one of the better storm set ups in past years.

Screen Shot 2021-10-09 at 7.53.16 pm.png
I'm honestly not seeing a whole lot of storm potential for Sydney at all. Lifted index is only around -1 for 10am tomorrow before getting back above zero later as that southerly stabilises the atmosphere. There's definitely been better storm set-ups in Sydney even in the last few weeks than what I'm seeing for tomorrow tbh. If anywhere in the Basin is to fire up into proper thunderstorm development, it'll be far NW Sydney IMO. But otherwise I reckon it'll be a Hunter and mid north coast special for tomorrow.
Thanks for the thread start too.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Joshua Randazzo

Joshua Randazzo

Hard Yards
Jan 1, 2021
259
233
63
near sydney CBD.
I'm honestly not seeing a whole lot of storm potential for Sydney at all. Lifted index is only around -1 for 10am tomorrow before getting back above zero later as that southerly stabilises the atmosphere. There's definitely been better storm set-ups in Sydney even in the last few weeks than what I'm seeing for tomorrow tbh. If anywhere in the Basin is to fire up into proper thunderstorm development, it'll be far NW Sydney IMO. But otherwise I reckon it'll be a Hunter and mid north coast special for tomorrow.
Thanks for the thread start too.
Im sure we will see at least something
 

AshestoAshes

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 3, 2019
482
1,149
263
21
Voyager Point NSW
I'm honestly not seeing a whole lot of storm potential for Sydney at all. Lifted index is only around -1 for 10am tomorrow before getting back above zero later as that southerly stabilises the atmosphere. There's definitely been better storm set-ups in Sydney even in the last few weeks than what I'm seeing for tomorrow tbh. If anywhere in the Basin is to fire up into proper thunderstorm development, it'll be far NW Sydney IMO. But otherwise I reckon it'll be a Hunter and mid north coast special for tomorrow.
Thanks for the thread start too.
Yh lol, i'm probs a bit excited with reopening and EC has biased me a bit. Hoping for a good dose of convection tomorrow to get the show on the road, if we get to about 26-28 degrees with sun we should have good time.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Wavey

Wavey

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 3, 2019
840
1,653
263
Wollongong, NSW
I reckon I could be wrong in my prediction last night. On paper it still doesn't look great for storm activity but the skies here are looking pretty interesting. Also I notice a few storms firing up down around Nowra with that southerly change.
And those storms last night too. That one that passed just north of Goulburn made it all the way to Huskisson and then out to sea.
 
Remove ads with a
Ski Pass

Billy Bob

One of Us
Nov 23, 2020
171
411
163
Bungendore
I didn't even know there were storms about last night; it was clear here with just some wispy high cloud on sunset, certainly no sign of convection.
 

Wavey

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 3, 2019
840
1,653
263
Wollongong, NSW
Sunny to the west of Wollongong.

Can see some towers.
Starting to look pretty ripe and just hearing first rumble of thunder as I'm typing. It does look like a storm day. Some of them are forming right on the coastline which is pretty unusual. I see Hill 60 (Port Kembla) just got a brief cell.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Jac0b and Homer

Jac0b

Hard Yards
Jul 5, 2019
59
150
83
Western Sydney
It's now 27.6°C at Olympic Park and 27.4°C in Richmond and over 30°C at Gosford under humid E/NE winds. It feels very very muggy here in Western Sydney.

Hopefully the southerly triggers something.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Homer and Wavey

Donza

Dogs body...
Platinum
Apr 21, 2004
130,114
89,083
3,563
woonona
Southerly has reached the Airport. It’s totally overcast here. While there’s a clearing edge near Penrith, the cloud is backbuilding over Sydney as it streams Eastwards.

EDIT: Storm cells are forming on the Illawarra coast and moving quickly out to sea.
Yup. They were popping up.

Sunny now and howling southerly.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Wavey and Homer

Billy Bob

One of Us
Nov 23, 2020
171
411
163
Bungendore
Yes. The surface southerly is only part of the picture; temperatures remain warm for several hours just above the southerly (and just inland) and this allows storms to form and even intensify with a bit of moisture from the coastal change.

A classic warm wedge of 925/850 temps over the Blue Mountains and parts of the Southern Tablelands today which will support these storms if they form. That storm near Nowra is a classic example: it has exploded on the escarpment.
 

Steve777

One of Us
Ski Pass
Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
1,355
3,975
363
Artarmon, Sydney North Shore
There's quite a difference across the Sydney region. Just 19 degrees at the Airport under a gusty SE'er up to 31 degrees at Richmond under light Northerlies. The Southerly is taking its time working its way through. The Sun's come back out here.

It's 29-32 degrees in the Central Coast and Hunter and probably fairly sunny. A little envious.
 

Wavey

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 3, 2019
840
1,653
263
Wollongong, NSW
Yes. The surface southerly is only part of the picture; temperatures remain warm for several hours just above the southerly (and just inland) and this allows storms to form and even intensify with a bit of moisture from the coastal change.

A classic warm wedge of 925/850 temps over the Blue Mountains and parts of the Southern Tablelands today which will support these storms if they form. That storm near Nowra is a classic example: it has exploded on the escarpment.
A surface southerly with warm air above is generally not good news but the steering winds are that swift that it won't matter.
 

Billy Bob

One of Us
Nov 23, 2020
171
411
163
Bungendore
A cloud fest here at the moment and the cool air has seemingly arrived earlier than forecast; a stiff easterly. ACCESS-C and Meteoblue etc. had warm air until late afternoon but EC's forecast seems to be correct.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Perfect Storm

AshestoAshes

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 3, 2019
482
1,149
263
21
Voyager Point NSW
Line of precipitation forming to our west, sun's out temps rising again with a nice little kick to the dewpoint. Keen to see what's going to happen in the next hour. Although Meteye has got most storms arriving at about 8pm tonight so interesting times.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Homer

Donza

Dogs body...
Platinum
Apr 21, 2004
130,114
89,083
3,563
woonona
Southerly ripping the guts out of the storms as they get close to the coast.
 

AshestoAshes

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 3, 2019
482
1,149
263
21
Voyager Point NSW
Black core dropped about 3kms west of me let's see what it brings as it moves over me, just some flangs and heavy rain so far. Nice little bonus before tonight's rain.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Homer
Remove ads with a
Ski Pass

Log in

or Log in using
Remove ads with a
Ski Pass