Predictions SW WA Storm Front (Tropical Cyclone Mangga) 24-25 May 2020

Discussion in 'Systems & Events' started by trappers, May 20, 2020 at 11:43 PM.

  1. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Potentially pretty nasty. Both EC and ACCESS predicting sub 975 hPa low crossing around Perth overnight Sunday.

    Could be an absolute doozy of a system if what is predicted comes off. At +120 hr, it is looking pretty good.
    [​IMG][​IMG]
     
  2. gareth_oau

    gareth_oau Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    nasty is good!
     
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  3. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking like it could be ripper, particularly on top of the last system, which impacted further south more significantly than the metro area. Much bigger potential impact area this one, some crazy things going on with good rainfall possible from south to north.

    Like the intent of this tropical system - blasting straight in out of the northwest, no dilly dallying, turbocharge the incoming frontal system & bang, let's get all wild.

    Still running flat out getting on top of damage from that system more than two week ago. Certainly been a 'stimulus' package....
     
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  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The preceding windfield ahead of the transitioning TD looks particularly nasty for the Geraldton Coastline, but to some degree they’re lucky the wind is not out of the West - the prevailing nature meaning more exposure to coastal gusting.


    The unlucky part is it’ll be out of the NE, which is not prevailing, making it damaging for some vegetation and structures.
    Doozy is the only ya to explain it. Anomalous Synoptics for this time of year.
     
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  5. Michael Hauber

    Michael Hauber One of Us

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    EC Sunday 7pm 850hp.



    Showing winds above 100kt, and northerly, although the wind field weakens somewhat in the next few hours as it heads south through Perth. How unusual are winds of this strength this for SW WA? Being a Qld resident I'm not so familiar with the weather in that part of Australia, but do know they get some strong winter low pressure systems.
     
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  6. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    962 over the Capes will get some shit going on!!

    Was planning a quick dash out to Lake King & back Sunday, might hold off, to much windfall exposure in a 12 hour transect.
     
  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Given it's a transitioning TD to Cold Cor Low it's very unusual. It looks to have an ECL 'feel' about it.
     
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  8. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Given I am up in the hills at about 935 hPa (975 sea level), 100kt winds (180k/h) would be ... unusual ... to say the least! Find it hard to believe that will come off though!
     
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  9. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  10. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  11. Homer

    Homer One of Us

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    That low looks nuts for west Oz on the latest BOM 4 dayer ….

    [​IMG]
     
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  12. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Invest 27S is expected to become a cat 1 tropical cyclone possibly impacting cocos islands before heading towards SW WA and interacting with a strong cold front and low.
     
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  13. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Is that low movement normal?? It looks likes it's coming in from the North West!
     
  14. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Its a modeled low from the tropics that goes extra-tropical. mjo
     
  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC peddling support of an upgrade this AM.
    Looking big, as it has it crossing the coast around Jurien Bay with CP of 980hPa.
     
  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Given the lack of moisture over the Gascoyne/Central West, you can expect raised dust and dust storms to be a problem on Sunday IMO.
     
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  17. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    @ that latitude winds at that strength. Just no. But none the less a interesting feature for this time of year climatology wise.
     
  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    ICON going for a newly named WCL. ;)
     
  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Tropical Cyclone Mangga has been named in the IO. Should be shortlived as it glances and winks at the Cocos Isle.
    [​IMG]

     
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  21. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Looking @ the ec model posted above. Coastal inundation maybe likely with this feature. Extra-tropical cyclones can ramp up big swells over vast area's of ocean.
     
  22. Michael Hauber

    Michael Hauber One of Us

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    EC 1pm Sunday surface winds



    Western island may cop some pretty fierce winds but google maps shows its a national park. Denham is a small town with 41 kts forecast on that map, but could get higher depending on movement of the small satellite low to the west, which has disappeared by the next frame. Perhaps also a storm surge at the south end of those bays if the winds turn a bit more northerly?
     
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  23. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Thinking when @ around 26s it will be a fully frontal asymmetrical extratropical system.
     
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  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah those parts of the world (Steep Point etc) are no strangers to Cyclonic forces.
     
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  25. Darb

    Darb Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    The NE'ly direction is often the pain here ... house is fairly setup for the normal S/SW'ers we get, but whenever a ballsy Northerly or Easterly kicks up, things tend to rattle and blow around.
     
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  26. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep, non-prevailing will be headache for many
     
  27. gareth_oau

    gareth_oau Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    being described as "unprecedented"

    Be interesting to see the TC and the cold front intercept
     
  28. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    ATM big spread between the two ens. Not forgetting here how dismal the EPS was during the official aussie season.
     
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  29. iagreewithhim

    iagreewithhim One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    It's called Dirk Hartog Island. Only the site of the first European contact with Australia. Sheesh.
     
  30. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    As a tropical entity it looks like sheared rubbish.
     
  31. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like it might be a bit of a fizzer. Low passing well west of the capes.
     
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  32. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Although EC looks better
     
  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Increased chance of coastal erosion with that sort of set up.
    Gascoyne and Central West coastlines looking anywhere for 5-7m swells.
     
  34. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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  35. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    The remnants of the TL tracking north along the coast look interesting, precip wise.

    Have people in full panic mode about hazardous trees above horrible mansions, warned years ago about some issues, now want me & my crew to undertake extreme risk removal hours before weather event.

    Not to secretly, hope 30 tonnes of marri lays right on the roof Sunday night.
     
  36. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Don't think that's the low from nth. Thinking that's a embedded low just behind the polar cold front that bombs out.


    arrow pointing to spot I'm thinking the lower pressure will under go the cyclogeniss
    When nearing SW WA.
     
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  37. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    7-9m swell forecasted by BoM WA for Cape Naturaliste on Monday.
     
  38. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like we're going to cop the most severe band of winds as well. Going to be a fairly noisy night & morning I think.

    Thoughts on chances of beating the 128km/h gust from the earlier May system? That pressure drop tomorrow afternoon is something else.

    That system caught people unawares, quite a few people I spoke to today think we've got a Category 8 cyclone coming this time....
     
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  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Should be a shoe-in, but at the other end of the Cape.
    EC suggesting +120km/h gusts Tomorrow night 23:00-04:00 hours.
     
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  40. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC progging 32mb drop in pressure in 24 hours... SES will be flat stick Monday IMO.
    Bombing Low inbound.


     
  41. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Am closer to Cape Leeuwin than Cape Nat.

    Have warned my guys to rest up, will be a solid week. Was a lot of firewood caching going on today.

    Think the damage, at least to large trees, will be reduced by the amount of 'cleaning' done by two week ago, although that said, have been looking at many with partial uplift from previous.

    What is interesting is we've had basically no fronts for all of May, apart from these two belters at either end of the month.
     
  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS this morning goes for 27mb drop in central pressure, in 12 hours!
    Double bomb cyclone territory.
     
  43. Darb

    Darb Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like it’s going to slide past? Wind and rainfall predictions have backed off (moreso for Monday) ?
     
  44. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Kaaaahhhhh BOOM


    Looks like it will slide past to the west but will still be windy and wet. starting later this afternoon.
     
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  45. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Just asking who is Evan tan in the twitter meteorological world.
     
  46. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nice Energy Budget exchange this arvo.
     
  47. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Pretty much matches THE current satpics.


    ..............................................................................................................................................................

    Over on the east coast here's a current wind sample of what a upper-level cyclone looks like. Extra tropical cyclones have the same scat samples.



    Note i edited this with the final eastcoast plot after the like.
     
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  48. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Dunno? A Malaysian born student called Sean who studied Econmics at UWA instead of Meteoroglogy? You perhaps? LOL
     
  49. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Gusting to 43 kt here in the hills! ( this is Bickley obs, abotu 40k south of me but the only really representative place close by at the same elevation.)
    [​IMG]
     
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  50. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Too funny maybe you.


    JoeWest
    @_JoeWest_ is me on twitter. And i know what a occluded- front is. Do you.