Day to Day Tasmania and the deep south weather

spent 10 years in Hobart and many many times would drive Norf and see Ben Lomand covered in snow but I never went out of my way to check it out

 

Fun fact, there is a road up on Cradle Mountain named after my Grandfather.

 

Pretty cool:

 

Calling snow down to 800m.
Feels like it.

 

Headed down to SOuthport and beyond today.
Hoping to do some short treks further SOuth again but I observe has been showers /raining all night in Huon Valley.
sounds so good on the metal roof , but not so good for us tourist types.

 

I observe pissing down and getting blawsted here at Nth Hobart right now.
The system has arrived !
Flight Sth now bounced further till Saturday morning at the earliest.

 

The -ve SAM flow on from the SSW event in Sept.
Discussed in other thread.

 

https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/late-spring-chill-in-southeastern-australia/530468

 

pix from Great Lake Hotel this morning.

 

SWW is up. no suprise.

 

So models are looking good for more tassie snow ...

 

Snow as low as 500m tomorrow IMO.
Not great for Hobart as it remains quite dry in the lee of Kunanyi.

Plenty more over the next week too (Wed/Fri and into the weekend).

 

Hmmm, in my experience the lower the snow in Tas, the worse the fire threat is at home.

 

BoM has almost fallen into line dropping snow level from 900 to 600m in the PM update.

 

Ripped from the Intranet. fwiw
Haven't caught up with the met crew yet, early days.

 

Dat Antarctic dial-up...

 

Though I did see these elsewhere (Think they are okay to post).

 

Cover looks good on the Ben for this time of year....

 

Today was a very hot day in Tasmania. Hobart got to 40.8C. The hottest place in the state appears to have been Friendly Beaches with 41.9C.

 

Check out the temp spike ! 24.7c at 1.30pm and 41.9 at 3.00pm ! Bloody hell !

 

Why the hell people would want to live in Hobart has me beat!

 

Hottest December day in Hobart since records began, I believe?

 

Even more remarkable, that was a historical record from 1897 which was surpassed by 0.2° C.

 

Historically in 1896 and 1897 there were a only a very few random obese citizens back then.
Today there’s a trend of obesity throughout the general population with associated health and economic consequences.

 

Skull road ?

 

I'm not surprised. There was a bit of hail about. Thankfully I managed to find a cosy little pub selling cheeky brews by the beach at Kingston and settled in with a nice book. A fine way to spend the afternoon.

 

Wait, so you went to the pub, on your own, to drink beer and read a book? Live-wire.

 

I had two hours to fill in while my daughter earned a living. Figured I'd spend some of her inheritance and indulged myself.

 

Mid Feb report for Launceston. Avge Max so far: 25.4 long term avge 24.6. Rainfall this Feb 9.8 mm long term avge 31.2 mm

 

EC & GFS not impartial to a little cold snap next week.
Snow to higher elevations, highly possible, as it stands.


GFS LWT says strong Neg AAO singal to boot with a SW'ly polar feed for Tas.


Also coinciding with a humble RWT influence:

 

It does look half decent, even though GFS has been periodically considering snowfall in Tassie every few runs or so for the last month.

What interests me is that the AAO hasn’t found a consistent state as of yet this year.

You can call it a neutral state if you want. But it hasn’t found any real mojo since the deep -AAO periods in Nov and Dec.

It’s weird that we had very strong negatives, and now the NH is feeling the global climatic base state and the AO is in record positive territory. Perhaps something to consider now that winter is starting to approach. The big question is what is it’s next move.

Anyways it looks pretty widespread on EC, particularly for this time of year:

Certainly gives it more credibility.

 

AAO has less tendency to variability and impact in summer months for us as we're typically dominated by MJO & tropical circulations.
That said, Tas has faired 'ok' climatically in the last quarter.


Feat or famine scenarios in regards to rainfall anoms.

 

February has probably changed things up quite a bit. Change in climatic influences, so we probably won't see the same effect as we saw last spring with the IOD and the SSW.

 

EC, CMC and GFS all look like they are on the same page, just some differences with the details. But of course it’s primarily about the big picture at this point.





CMC peaking a smidge more than EC, and GFS peaking a bit earlier than both of them.

 

Big feature there is that SO block pattern at 60S (SW of WA), correlates nicely with the RRWT chart posted a few days ago.

 

Some stacked temps signaled for Wednesday midday, for Tas. Snow down to 1000m at times for SW National Park IMO.
With snowfalls above 1200m right through until Wednesday evening.
~10cm above 1200m is not out the question IMO.

Strong polar deviation over Tas (and a very anomalous trough in Eastern IO, off WA coast):

 

Some depth in the DGZ tomorrow for Southern Coast of Tas. It's a shame it dries out a bit.
Good chance of anomalous snow down to 800/900m at times, late arvo tomorrow IMO.

 

Cradle Mountain region looks like it’s set to get 5-10cm as well:


In amongst some rainfall as well, with the best snowfall in the morning. The temperatures are likely to be better for Southern Tasmania throughout the day.

 

Summer Snow at Mount Mawson this AM.
15mm and 6ºC at Scotts Peak AWS (~500m).