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TC Yasi, Queensland Cyclone Feb 02 onwards

Discussion in 'The Tropics & Cyclones' started by smitty484, Jan 26, 2011.

  1. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS short range (for those without weatherzone silver):
    http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/?lt=wzcountry&lc=aus&mt=gfs&mc=mslp&mso=0&mh=168&focus=mh

    GFS long range (for those with weatherzone silver):
    http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/?lt=wzcountry&lc=aus&mt=mrf&mc=mslp&mso=0&mh=216&focus=mh

    GFS has been forecasting a cyclone now for a few days. Could potentially hit anywhere between Cairns and Coolangatta, but it looks like a ripper on the charts at the moment. While I am OS as well, so I hope I have a house to come back to.

    Could be quite devastating, especially considering our dams are already full capacity and we have just had one major flood.
     
    #1 smitty484, Jan 26, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  2. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Queensland Cyclone Feb 02 onwards

    EC a little later.

    [​IMG]

    GFS has it further out & south.
    [​IMG]
     
    #2 Claude Cat, Jan 26, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  3. captain

    captain Hard Yards

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    Re: Queensland Cyclone Feb 02 onwards

    no, we don't need that shit!
     
  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Queensland Cyclone Feb 02 onwards

    This morning's GFS & EC.

    Take these with a massive grain of salt as I don't think these models are great at predicting where potential cyclones can go.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
    #4 Claude Cat, Jan 27, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 19, 2013
  5. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Queensland Cyclone Feb 02 onwards

    You are correct GFS is not brilliant at large meso scale phenomena, it is more designed for synoptic scales stuff and cyclones kind of fall in the gap ... this is the JTWC prediction, which is typically an ensemble of specialist cyclone models, so is much more reliable. No indications of intensity at this stage, but still worthy of watching
    [​IMG]
     
    #5 trappers, Jan 27, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  6. Nowada

    Nowada Addicted

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    Re: Queensland Cyclone Feb 02 onwards

    How likely is this to happen? What is the time frame?
    Queensland has had enough storms, and looking at it selfishly I am in Cairns!, for 2 days before flying to Japan on the 7th of Feb
     
  7. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Queensland Cyclone Feb 02 onwards

    GFS has 2 seperate cyclones making landfall within a few days- but what Trappers said anyway
     
  8. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Queensland Cyclone Feb 02 onwards

    Regardless of whether the cyclones actually make landfall or not, I think its fairly safe to say that Queensland is going to get very wet next week.

    I don't take an EC deterministic forecast at +96 hours with much salt at all.

    Gulp.
     
  9. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    TC Yasi

    No this is not Anthony, this is Anthony's much bigger daddy coming behind to mop up his mess.

    This will be a very big cyclone if the predictions are right.

    All the ingredients are there ... low shear, high SSTs momentum and moisture. JTWC currently have it at sustained winds of 190km/h(110kts) at impact with gusts to 250km/h (135kts), which makes it a solid category 4 and very close to a category 5.

    Land fall is currently predicted at Cairns, but it could vary a little considering how far out it is.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    It is an absolute monster, dwarfing Anthony in size. Yasi was named by the Fijian BoM, and is the fijian name of a sandalwood tree.

    Stay safe QLD people, keep an eye on this one.
     
    #9 trappers, Jan 30, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  10. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: TC Yasi

    Still fairly disorganised, but bloody massive and down to 993hPa already. Yasi is already creating her own low shear environment, but could be affected slightly as it passes over the islands near Vanuatu. Once it has cleared them it should intensify fairly rapidly if it maintains its own low shear environemnt.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Most of the dynamical models have it crossing further south than the JTWC map.

    I've been watching cyclones for a long time, and I havent seen one this size in the southern hemisphere for a long time (I am struggling to remember one larger!). Admittedly it is still a baby and is poorly organised so it may consolidate in the next day or two to be more compact.
     
    #10 trappers, Jan 30, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  11. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: TC Yasi

    Meanwhile, Anthony has reached the coast. The Mackay radar looks quite interesting at the moment.
     
  12. parkmonkey

    parkmonkey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: TC Yasi

    Big north east swell on the way [​IMG]
     
    #12 parkmonkey, Jan 30, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: TC Yasi

    [​IMG]

    Anthony & Yasi
    Anthony is puny compared to Yasi.
     
    #13 Claude Cat, Jan 30, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  14. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    #14 smitty484, Jan 30, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  15. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: TC Yasi

    Good 'ol McIDAS.
     
  16. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Queensland Cyclone Feb 02 onwards

    actually the GFS 336 was surprisingly accurate for this weeks events
    If this comes off get ready for another flood levy

    [​IMG]
     
    #16 MisterMxyzptlk, Jan 30, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  17. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Queensland Cyclone Feb 02 onwards

    Yep indeed incoming and all models agree something big and nasty brewing .
     
  18. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Queensland Cyclone Feb 02 onwards

    It got lucky last time. It predicted cyclone Anthony forming, but at 336hrs it got the intensity completely wrong. I still wouldnt hold a huge amount of faith in the 336hr forecast.

    That said, SSTs are still warm and if the shear environment remains low, then conditions are ripe for TC formation in the coral sea. We may just get one after another after another, and any model in the world can predict that! [​IMG] [​IMG]

    Latest JTWC track map has pushed the crossing further south in line with the dynamical models.
    [​IMG]

    And the latest microwave shots show a much more organised storm with a well defined LLCC and eye forming.
    [​IMG]
     
    #18 trappers, Jan 31, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  19. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Queensland Cyclone Feb 02 onwards

    if that comes off i won't be going to Japan
     
    #19 Donza, Jan 31, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  20. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Queensland Cyclone Feb 02 onwards

    How did that two-week old +384 hour prediction of a devastating Brisbane cyclone turn out?
     
  21. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Queensland Cyclone Feb 02 onwards

    this one?
    posted on 23/1/11?
    looks pretty good to me..that's Yani hitting @ 5th and another building behind it

    [​IMG]
     
    #21 MisterMxyzptlk, Jan 31, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  22. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Queensland Cyclone Feb 02 onwards

    Thanks S-P

    for making me feel great
     
  23. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Queensland Cyclone Feb 02 onwards

    Remember PG is banning all computer generated models outside 48 hours...so in future you can just reside in sweet oblivion.
    Then you can turn up at Coolangatta looking perplexed as the runway is inundated by the Bilinga swamp
     
  24. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Queensland Cyclone Feb 02 onwards

    No, I'm talking about the one posted in the middle of the Queensland flood which predicted Brisbane would be struck by a devastating cyclone in the next week.
     
    #24 Rush, Jan 31, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  25. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: TC Yasi

    Guys can you take the discussion of the relative worth of the models out of this thread (I am guilty of it too). This should remain about TC Yasi.

    I still dont understand why the TC Yasi thread was merged with this one?! What is wrong with having a thread about a specific system?!

    Anyway. TC Yasi is likely to enter the Brisbane Area of Responsibility (AOR) today or tomorrow.
     
  26. benchives

    benchives Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: TC Yasi

    Issues with moderation should be taken off forum.

    [​IMG]
     
    #26 benchives, Jan 31, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  27. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: TC Yasi

    [​IMG] [​IMG] Touche [​IMG]
     
    #27 trappers, Jan 31, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: TC Yasi

    I merged both Yasi and the original QLD cyclone threads because they were both discussing Yasi (and Anthony) so rather than looking at two threads ...
    If you want I can change the title of the thread to be more relevant, by all means suggest away.

    And please keep discussion to the event rather than computer models.
     
  29. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: TC Yasi

    Jesus! Not often you see a single storm take up an ENTIRE single frame MODIS shot!!!

    Below is the raw 2km resolution MODIS image from Terra at 23:18Z 30/1/2011 (about 4hrs ago). Click on this image for the full 250m resolution MODIS shot (VERY large).

    [​IMG]
    I believe Brisbane's AOR is at 160°E so that means she should enter Australian "metspace" later today.

    The satellite data is predicting an area of reasonably high shear over the next 10hrs or so, which will probably limit growth. I'd love to see a technical forecast or does the RSMC Fiji not issue them?
     
    #29 trappers, Jan 31, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  30. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: TC Yasi

    Finally a decent MW shot
    [​IMG]
    Much tighter ... still has quite a bit of consolidation to do, with a small fairly thin eyewall. Lovely CDO with covered eye.

    Next decent MW shot will be from F16 at 7:51Z, but that is a lot of convection in the East quadrant which will wrap around the eye.
     
    #30 trappers, Jan 31, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  31. captain

    captain Hard Yards

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    Re: TC Yasi

    We are going to cop a king hit from this ;-(
     
  32. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: TC Yasi

    Just before it sets for the night ... check out the size of Yasi in comparison to Australia
    [​IMG]

    Wow ...
     
    #32 trappers, Jan 31, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  33. mjmmjm

    mjmmjm First Runs

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    Re: TC Yasi

    Sooo like... I am flying from Bris to Cairns on the 9th then onwards to Japan. Am I le' fooked because that thing looks huge, and I aint never seen anything like that near brisbane in my 21 years.
     
  34. captain

    captain Hard Yards

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    Re: TC Yasi

    Its the Katrina for QLD that thing is, if it hits cat 4 before landfall, Yeppoon to Cairnes is fooked.
     
  35. rabble

    rabble First Runs

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    Re: TC Yasi

    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/environm...0131-1aahx.html
    Wow...
     
    #35 rabble, Jan 31, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 25, 2013
  36. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: TC Yasi

    Weatherzone forums are going nuts with some 3500 people viewing!
    The storm surge may be worse than the winds and will be over a huge area. Some people starting to get very worried which is understandable
     
  37. captain

    captain Hard Yards

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    Re: TC Yasi

    friends up north just got the evac call due to the storm surge, night night nth qld, you are fooked.
     
    #37 captain, Feb 1, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  38. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: TC Yasi

    [​IMG]

    FWIW this scan does not show any clear eye structure like the previous ones. It may be because the scan was at a lower resolution for some reason but I dont recall the SSMI-S sensor on F18 to be any different to that on F17 so ??? I guess the eyewall has just vanished, perhaps an ERC, but hard to tell since the CDO has always covered the eye (see IR shot below)
    [​IMG]

    I'm hoping to see an eye by the morning. An ERC at this point in Yasi's development would not be surprising.
     
    #38 trappers, Feb 1, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  39. Spiceman

    Spiceman Part of the Furniture

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    Re: TC Yasi

    Cat 4 by tomorrow arvo and it will move quite quick. Actually that is the only thing that may help, but I fear it is so big, that the speed of it won't really matter. It will get a bit of sheer shortly but then the wind sheer will be really favourable for intensification, and it could be a high 4 on Landfall. the BOM has it hitting between Innisfail and Townsville and if I was in Cardwell or Ingham I''d be pretty worried right now. I think the devastation from this will be massive. We might be paying $12 a kg for bananas again very soon. What amazes me is the spread of destructive winds and even very destructive winds. I reckon between 105-115knts at landfall... not too shabby and the gusts will be higher.
     
  40. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: TC Yasi

    JTWC have updated their map with sustained winds of 220 km/h at landfall and gust of 260+ km/h that is bloody close to a cat 5. I follow cyclones very closely (a silly hobby) and the is an absolute MONSTER storm and people (especially those to the south of the crossing zone) should have every reason to be worried. If this was coming towards me, I would be packing up tonight. I dont think anyone can understate the risks this will bring with it. Those near the coast will see a huge storm surge associated with a massive fetch, phenomenal seas and very low pressure. This will be especially true to those south of the eye. [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #40 trappers, Feb 1, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  41. mossdonkey

    mossdonkey First Runs

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    Re: TC Yasi

    Epic - storm surge needs an Aussie passport! I stay outta the tech stuff but even to a noob, latest charts are EPIC! Pressures are so down and dirty!!!!!
     
  42. chunky

    chunky Old n' Crusty

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    Re: TC Yasi

    That looks enormous. I have family arriving from Innisfail to help with the rebuild down here. I hope they don't suffer losses while they are down here.
     
  43. Red Mtn

    Red Mtn One of Us

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    Re: TC Yasi

    From the Cairns Post this morning. That is huge!

    [​IMG]
     
    #43 Red Mtn, Feb 1, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  44. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: TC Yasi

    This is going to be absolutely massive.
     
  45. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: TC Yasi

    My youngest brother has built himself a very nice first house on the outskirts of Cairns. As a Master 4 skipper in quasi government employ he is currently busy securing some fairly large assets. They have battened down and await the Yasi occasion. he sounded his usual chirpy self on the phone last night. This is his 7th regional cyclone and he reckons it is pretty "awesome". [​IMG]
     
    #45 dawooduck, Feb 1, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  46. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: TC Yasi

    An eye seems to be redeveloping in the multi from about 2.5 hours ago but the CDO is still covering it. Some very stron convection appears near the eye on the vis sat shot

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Latest BoM Track Map
    [​IMG]

    IDQ20018
    TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
    Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
    at: 1905 UTC 31/01/2011
    Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi
    Identifier: 14U
    Data At: 1800 UTC
    Latitude: 13.6S
    Longitude: 158.4E
    Location Accuracy: within 35 nm [65 km]
    Movement Towards: west [265 deg]
    Speed of Movement: 22 knots [40 km/h]
    Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 85 knots [155 km/h]
    Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 120 knots [220 km/h]
    Central Pressure: 960 hPa
    Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 140 nm [260 km]
    Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 180 nm [335 km]
    Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 180 nm [335 km]
    Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
    Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
    Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
    Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
    Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
    Radius of 64-knot winds:
    Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
    Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS
    Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
    Radius of outermost closed isobar: 210 nm [390 km]
    Storm Depth: Deep
    FORECAST DATA
    Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
    [UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
    +12: 01/0600: 14.3S 154.9E: 065 [120]: 095 [175]: 949
    +24: 01/1800: 15.4S 151.5E: 095 [175]: 100 [185]: 944
    +36: 02/0600: 16.4S 148.1E: 130 [235]: 105 [195]: 939
    +48: 02/1800: 17.5S 145.2E: 160 [295]: 065 [120]: 976
    +60: 03/0600: 18.9S 142.1E: 210 [385]: 035 [065]: 992
    +72: 03/1800: 19.8S 139.6E: 255 [470]: 030 [055]: 998
    REMARKS:
    Centre embedded within White to give DT 5.0. MET 5.0 with PAT 5.0. FT based on
    DT. Improved organisation with rapid development during last 6 to 12 hours.
    Expect system to continue intensifying within favourable environment of low
    shear and good upper outflow.

    Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
    ==
    The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 01/0100 UTC by Brisbane
    TCWC.
     
    #46 trappers, Feb 1, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  47. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    #47 Sandy, Feb 1, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  48. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: TC Yasi

    It's nuts. Over 500km diameter of greater than 34 knot sustained winds. Fark. Add wind gusts into the equation and it's vicious.
     
  49. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: TC Yasi

    No diving up in Milne Bay today. I wonder what the edges of the storm are like on a few of the islands up there at the moment?
     
  50. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: TC Yasi

    Good morning Yasi.

    [​IMG]

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    #50 Rush, Feb 1, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013