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TC Yasi, Queensland Cyclone Feb 02 onwards

Discussion in 'Weather' started by smitty484, Jan 26, 2011.

  1. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    The aftermath of Cyclone Larry in 2006 around Innisfail on banana production would suggest otherwise. And from the ABC today link

    And from The Australian

     
    #401 Rush, Feb 3, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 25, 2013
  2. Ian D

    Ian D Pool Room Staff Member Administrator Moderator

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    You said all PG, I was simply pointing out that there are a range of areas, not on the % distribution of production of each of those areas.

    The majority are grown in FNQ because of a combination of the best climate and infrastructure for that particular crop. This is the driving force for growing any crop - best combination of climate for that crop and infrastructure to support the production.
     
  3. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Gee the peeps over on WZ forums have got their knickers in a knot about their forums going down..

    I bet some of them had been waiting ages to discuss something like this...

    oh well
     
  4. Podlet

    Podlet Part of the Furniture

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    Interesting that one guy that fool Stephen Jacobs was interviewing this morning said that most banana farmers will cut the tops off their own trees so the whole crop isn't damaged. From that I take it that the trees will regenerate from the stump left, where as if the tops were left upright they'd stand more chance of being uprooted and totally lost.

    So some of the "devastation" is actually done by the farmers [​IMG]

    not to take away from the cyclone at all
     
    #404 Podlet, Feb 3, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  5. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes that pre-emptive method is described in the ABC article.

    Perhaps its time to build some more infrastructure so that we don't put all our bananas in the one basket.
     
  6. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Interestingly I heard an interview from Cardwell this morning where a gentleman was saying that most of the older houses had been totally destroyed but the newer houses (<25 years old in his words) were reasonably structurally sound, unless something fell on them.

    Building codes have improved significantly. What category cyclone do the building codes require buildings in that area to be built to?
     
  7. VSG

    VSG Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    PG: these Doctors of Philly stuff [​IMG] miss the mathematical nuances... while you may have widely distributed banana growing areas, the Innisfail has the greatest number of plantations and trees (stools).. it would seem.

    PG.. run up a distribution chart for us... [​IMG]
     
    #407 VSG, Feb 3, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 25, 2013
  8. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Im doing my bit to accelerate climate change to allow for more areas where bananas can be grown. Are you?
     
    #408 Vermillion, Feb 3, 2011
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  9. VSG

    VSG Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Oops. My bad. [​IMG] Took my time in posting. Doctor Philly is on to it. [​IMG]

     
    #409 VSG, Feb 3, 2011
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  10. mjmmjm

    mjmmjm First Runs

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    Honestly have not eaten a single banana in my life (although I have my fair share of banana smoothies) so the banana supply does not affect me.
     
  11. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Fantastic for you brother.
     
    #411 Vermillion, Feb 3, 2011
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  12. mjmmjm

    mjmmjm First Runs

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    Thankyou.
     
  13. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wow, they were very lucky!!

    FYI for those who may not know, HAT = Highest Astronomical Tide. It is the highest possible tide just from astronomical influences (the sun and the moon). In my line of work we design to HAT and LAT (Lowest Astronomical Tide) regullarly and add an allowance for storm surge depending on the area, and the area we are currently working in that margin is about 4m. In this case the storm surge (the residual in this plot) is effectively 5m ... so worst case = HAT + 5m ... wow 5m = the height of a 2 story building.
     
    #413 trappers, Feb 3, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  14. D-eye

    D-eye Photographer and skier Moderator

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    Although the cropping area in a lot of those places has been replaced by houses, same with sugar cane.
     
    #414 D-eye, Feb 3, 2011
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  15. Ian D

    Ian D Pool Room Staff Member Administrator Moderator

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    Yep, back in the 60's Coffs had about 80% of the Aussie market (AND the big banana [​IMG] )
     
    #415 Ian D, Feb 3, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  16. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Getting slightly off topic here, but do different areas produce bananas at different times?
    I think Carnarvon in WA is different to QLD; and bear in mind Carnarvon crops were badly affected due to the floods in the Gascoyne river not all that long ago.
     
  17. Spiceman

    Spiceman Part of the Furniture

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    I was about to say, why the hell is Coffs called the Big Banana.... we need to stop protecting this industry that makes us pay insane prices when there is a big storm.. In NZ you can by south american and Phillipino bananas for cheaper than we buy our own from here... Time to make some changes..
     
  18. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Yeah um good luck with that...

    I'm in two minds about buying foreign bananas...
    big bad agribusiness raping and pillaging.

    but their bananas taste oh so good.
     
    #418 Donza, Feb 3, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  19. teckel

    teckel Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bananas:

    [​IMG]

    Nice to hear from all the experts who previously thought that bananas came out of a suprmarket
     
    #419 teckel, Feb 3, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  20. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    I get mine from the grocer
     
  21. Doonks

    Doonks Let's cook! Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    they do come out of a supermarket. Go into any supermarket and you'll find bananas
     
  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic.
     
  23. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    PG or any other weather guru - any thoughts were all the moisture from Yasi will end up after it becomes a low?
    Because I fear that after another 100mm of rain in Victoria this weekend (from Anthony) we're going to see a fair bit of it come down here later next week, and that's not going to be good.
     
  24. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    ACCESS suggests flooding in Alice Springs and central Australia at the moment.

    So do the rest of the models.
     
  25. warrie

    warrie Hard Yards

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    Getting away from bananas, have a look at BoM inland Qld rain since 9am. Or rather the lack thereof. Mostly pale blue and dark blue dots along the cylones track. Yes it's only 7 hours worth but it's hardly more than a good thunderstorm. Perhaps the orographic effect of the coastal ranges has bled the system relatively dry........W
     
  26. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Unfortunately radar coverage is non existant where Yasi is, however the sat shots give a good idea where it is.

    Tracking dead towards Mount Isa at the moment with a suprisingly good structure still

    This is the weak MW range image from TRMM about 3hrs ago (3:38Z)

    [​IMG]

    and the visible image shows just how much structure Yasi has maintained

    [​IMG]


    Worthwhile monitoring Mt Isa over the next 12hrs. Yasi is still moving WSW at about 22km/h acording to the satellite map which puts it about 10hrs or so out of Mt Isa ... Given the LLCC is still 220km away from Mt Isa, it is still generating some pretty windy conditions!

    This will update
    [​IMG]
     
    #426 trappers, Feb 3, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  27. gareth_oau

    gareth_oau Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I was looking at the BoM rain radar last night and it did surprise me that yasi seemed a relatively "dry" cyclone
     
  28. chunky

    chunky Old n' Crusty

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    OMG Ch 9 = Overkill with the coverage. It's a cyclone. They happen every year.
     
  29. Podlet

    Podlet Part of the Furniture

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    not to mention the disease risk they pose to other crops here if bugs come in with them and aren't detected.

    if "we" stop supporting the banana industry then it short be across the board so that no industry is propped up, but then we'd have no industry in australia at all. I'd rather support the aussie growers than bad practices in the phillipines or elsewhere. By that I mean ripping down forest that supports other animals because our banana industry has gone to through the floor and puts things like cute furry monkeys or something in danger of extinction.
     
    #429 Podlet, Feb 3, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  30. Spiceman

    Spiceman Part of the Furniture

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    The scene that amazes me the most is how the complete foreshore of Cardwell is just like gone, into the ocean and the ocean now is almost at the main street, that's gonna take some fixing:

    [​IMG]

    Now that is just insane!!!!!!
     
    #430 Spiceman, Feb 3, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  31. Spiceman

    Spiceman Part of the Furniture

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    On my trip around Oz, we stopped here for lunch, I've gotta tell you some of those trees down by the beach were massive, there was a forshore walking path beside the road and also a grass area maybe extending two to three metres out in parts with seats to sit down on. if you want to see what it was like before, go here: http://maps.google.com.au/maps?q=cardwel...ved=0CCkQ8gEwAA

    Just zoom in pretty close and then drop the little man for a street view of it.. and notice how massive the trees are along the foreshore, they are simply gone now.... and the beach has come up to the road.
     
    #431 Spiceman, Feb 3, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  32. Podlet

    Podlet Part of the Furniture

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    dramatic for sure Spicey, but fairly cosmetic apart from the damage to the road.
     
  33. D-eye

    D-eye Photographer and skier Moderator

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    I remember thinking when I drove through there that it was awfully close to the water and not very high. Same with Mission beach. If I was to live in a town like them I would be looking at higher ground.
     
    #433 D-eye, Feb 3, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  34. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    My boss today said the track of Yasi was easy to forecast due to a ridge along the equator which meant it really only had one way to go. So in some ways, it gave the numerical models an easy ride.
     
  35. parkmonkey

    parkmonkey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Port Hinchinbrook has had 500mm of rain in the last 24hrs, and its still raining heavily [​IMG]
     
    #435 parkmonkey, Feb 4, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  36. SNJ

    SNJ One of Us

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    Not to mention the white house in the middle top of the picture has a massive section missing when you look at it on g.maps.
     
    #436 SNJ, Feb 4, 2011
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  37. Yardsale

    Yardsale Part of the Furniture Moderator

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    On the subject of trees coming down, if you look at the photos of the root systems that are torn , you see the root ball of the trees if fairly narrow. It is actually the root system that has failed, not the tree itself.

    Trees that get shoved in the pavement like that are not very strong - a normal tree would have roots that roughly go out to the boundary of its foliage.

    When they replant, I think they need to reconsider this a bit and provide some way for the ground to get water further out under the street. It is not only cyclone areas that have this problem, it is pretty much everywhere you see this kind of thing.
     
  38. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sounds like you've found the root cause of the failure....
     
    #438 Sandy, Feb 4, 2011
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  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    [​IMG]
     
    #439 Claude Cat, Feb 4, 2011
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  40. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yardy is spot on and tree health in urban areas is difficult. Ye olde streets with cobbles and bluestone kerbing are much more flexible under pressure and better for tree growth as there is much imrpved water penetration and little nodes for root incursion. There is in fact a technique called 'strcutural soils' for urban areas, but typically Structural/Civil Engineers and trees have a fairly mutually exclusive arrangement.
     
  41. Spiceman

    Spiceman Part of the Furniture

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    yep, that's certainly getting to the root of the problem...
     
  42. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    with the trenching and services in a typical retail street shown, surrounded by compacted crushed rock, and impervious surfaces above, is it any wonder they fail when it really blows?

    [​IMG]
     
    #442 mr, Feb 4, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  43. Yardsale

    Yardsale Part of the Furniture Moderator

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    What's with Hitler on the balcony? [​IMG]
     
    #443 Yardsale, Feb 4, 2011
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  44. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    we always sneak in a hitler
     
  45. tbnext

    tbnext One of Us

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    Well I do think they dodged a bullet. Most amazing images if you can call them that are the boats tossed like toys on the ? Cardwell marina and the poor banana's. I may be completely making it up but the most extensive house damage "appears" to be pre 1974+ building codes. Perhaps these structures have no place in a cyclone zone-and no I am not heartless.

    Heard a cyclone engineer expert tonight seriously doubting winds exceeded 200km's-why. Cause nothing is built to withstand 300Kms.

    I have some questions re evacuation centres. Heard "older" abc listeners shun them for two reasons-

    a) Lack of toilet facilities-they are not up to queing-modesty and pride>fear of weather
    b)lack of domestic pet facilities-they will not leave them.

    I think the evac centres saved lives but we MUST consider these reasons in the future.
     
  46. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    yeah it looks like mostly lightweight fibro homes got nailed

    good discussion on Radio National regarding the Cairns Hospital being the FIRST place evacuated due to its location, really it should be built to be the last joint standing
     
  47. Spiceman

    Spiceman Part of the Furniture

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    The so called cyclone engineer expert is an idiot in my opinion... but let me clarify. We know for a fact that 100kms south of the eye there were wind gust in Lucinda up to 186kph... So 14kph away from the 200kph barrier, and he reckons there were no winds above 200kph at the eye wall?? he's kidding himself. As for nothing withstanding 300kph, well that' depends entirely where those winds hit. Let's take a look at Cyclone Vance, a Cat 5 that hit Exmouth back in 1999:

    [​IMG]

    If you look at that Sat Image you can see the eye passed right by Exmouth which copped the full brunt of this storm on the coast... and yet, and I quote:

    We know that winds were definately over 200kph and the highest recorded mainland gust of 267kph shows that it was definately a powerful cyclone and yet only 10% of buildings with "major" structural damage. So why then was Tracy completely flattened by a cat 4 which obviously didn't have as strong winds?? Well there are a number of reasons that can change things dramatically, including but not limited to: cyclone speed, tornado offshoots, storm surge, building codes or lack of them on housing etc etc etc. I don't think we'll ever see another shot of a town like Darwin...

    The other thing that happens in a Cat 5 style storm in a built up area is the domino effect that happens when one roof goes and then slamming into another and another and so on... so the actual debris exacerbates the problem. Think about where Yasi hit and we were extremely lucky, a reasonably sparse population compared with Cairns and Townsville. Given how much Townsville got beat up and it was 200kms to the south of the cyclone can you imagine what might have happened there if it was say 30kms south of the eye wall?? Bada boom bada bing, it would have been smashed and you would have seen massive domino effect. The people in FNQ know they dodged a bullet, and yet for some the bullet hit them very hard!!!!

    Tully Heads got smashed by storm surge and the full force of Cyclone Yasi...

    Take a look at the video on this page: http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/02/04/3130248.htm

    I'm amazed by the amount of people thinking it was not that bad.. So many people have lost their homes and their livelihood, it's not funny. The whole section of Bruce Hwy at Cardwell is smashed to bits. Many many places got between 350mm and 500mm of rain in just 48hrs, with South Mission beach topping out with 529mm in 48hrs (as far as I can tell). The photos on this page reveal the extent and breadth of the damage, just amazing really: http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/envir...selectedImage=1

    It is very unfortunate that there was no wind measuring instrument within cooee of the cyclone that lasted and so we will never know how high the winds actually got, but based on the readings at Lucinda, and given that it was 100kms south of where the eye hit the coast, I think we can almost guarantee they were more than 200kph and I would say based on the damage of the area from around Mission Beach, Tully Heads, Tully, El Arish and Cardwell etc, they would have exceeded 250kph in places. Some of the homes are completely and utterly gone and there are a great deal more with major structural damage. I think the "expert" is on drugs... How does he know that some of those houses that were completely decimated didn't get hit by a 250-300kph gust?? He doesn't and neither do I, but the damage sure as hell reflects it. And if he was really an "expert", he should know that those winds do not happen across a broad area, they gust in different places at different times, and hence my original comment... the guy is an idiot! Rant Off...
     
    #447 Spiceman, Feb 5, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 25, 2013
  48. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    To quickly quote from the Weatherzone forums Technical thread on this issue ...
     
    #448 trappers, Feb 5, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  49. Spiceman

    Spiceman Part of the Furniture

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    And Lucinda is actually almost 100kms from where it hit, not 50-60kms... all good points and pretty much what I said, except I forgot to mention the excellent job the government did in warning people... they were mostly ready for it... But I agree if it had hit Townsville or Cairns head on, I think the story would be far different...
     
  50. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Also with Katrina, most people died from the floods caused by the levee's failing., not from the storm itself.