The 2019 Autumn ground cooling thread

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Jellybeans1000, Mar 1, 2019.

  1. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    Happy autumn everyone!

    On the horizon, as noted previously by @POW_hungry, the 12-15 March period is showing some signs of colder weather.

    The anomaly is in the region on EPS. Mean not so great.


    And some members on EPS supporting Kosiciuszko snow during the period.
     
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  2. Snowy Joey

    Snowy Joey One of Us
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    In Canberra for a few days, helping friends. Surprisingly a tad cooler than what it is in melbourne!
     
  3. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    best time of year.
    cool nights.
    warm days.
    ocean is at it's warmest and anticipation for some winter goodness to follow..
    For those on the East Coast our gaze shifts from the Coral Sea to the Southern Ocean.
     
  4. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us
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  5. gareth_oau

    gareth_oau Pool Room
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    Currently only 21 in Perth and expecting an overnight minimum of only 13.

    Might have to dig out the ugg boots!
     
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  6. Kimski

    Kimski One of Us

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    Need more cool nights here in Adelaide right now :(
     
  7. Tanuki

    Tanuki A Local
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    Minimum of 24c tonight in Hellbourne.
     
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  8. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    I think thats a bit ambitious
    soon grasshopper
    got a heat bubble heading our way
     
  9. gareth_oau

    gareth_oau Pool Room
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    And probably sticky
     
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  10. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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  11. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    Tues/Weds system totals


    5-15mm for Melbourne
    Up to 50mm for the Alps.
    Some of the later precipitation should fall as snow to about 1500-1600m late on Wednesday.
     
  12. Jacko4650

    Jacko4650 One of Us
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  13. gareth_oau

    gareth_oau Pool Room
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    woohoo, my suburb hit a low of 7.9 this morning!
     
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  14. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
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    A few flakes above 1900 mts imo.
     
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  15. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture
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    Just drove down to Somers for the night. Amazing view of the cell popping up that way above the smoke haze from the BNP fires, driving so could get a photo.
    We are right in the smoke path down here, it’s eery with the sun shining through the high smoke makes everything shining golden in colour
     
  16. IAB

    IAB A Local
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    38C in Hobart right now. Toasty.
     
  17. IAB

    IAB A Local
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    Just checked, hottest March day ever.
     
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  18. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
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    Thread title now edited to 2019.
     
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  19. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
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    MJO Velocity Potential 40 day forecast.
     
  20. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Twas a generalisation not a forecast. ;)
     
  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Interesting secondary pulse through Northern Africa late March. I think that may force a backtrack in the MJO, potentially leaving with us with not much more than a diluted fizzed out passing.
     
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  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    100% f'ed up:


    Is everyone aware of where Cape Bruny Lighthouse is located!? We're officially f'ed as a race.


     
  23. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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    It's a beautiful spot. But **** me, that's ridiculously hot for there.
     
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  24. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
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    Tues night/ Wed will bring some relief though.
     
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  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Love Bruny.
    Could live there in a heartbeat. But when Darwin reaches 32C and Bruny hits that.... Somethin's up.
     
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  26. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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    I think it was 30+ when we were last on Bruny.
     
  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    One of many floated scenarios.
    [​IMG]
     
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  28. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us

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    BAU down South.....

    Looked like a few drops might land on the paddocks. Alas ‘twas not to be but a decent Autumn day just the same!! Can’t complain:)....




     
  29. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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  30. hipo

    hipo One of Us
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    I don't post in here very often...very amatuer at weather forcasting. But happy this time to stick my neck out and go with the original predictions of the climate change scientists and the events in the nth Hemi.
    The plains will continue in drought but the peaks will see wild and wooly weather dumping near record snow coverage. There will be a few days of freshies but it will soon be wind blown and crusty. I'll spend many more days on skis that hold an edge than on fats. Lift queues will be a bummer because of wind hold.
    Hope I'm wrong!
     
  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Saturday?
     
  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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  33. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them
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    Nice sunny day in the ACT



     
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  34. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us
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    I mean, given its still 36 in Melbourne I'd say they got that graphic slightly wrong lol
     
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  35. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ...
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    Oh, hurry up and cool down. A warm and unpleasant Canberra night with 33 Celsius forecast for today.
     
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  36. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us

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    It’s a sign...... not sure what of though....

    Just north of Cooma but interesting sun filter this morning that was pretty much visible driving from Jindy. Taken from a farm producing hay. Of their 1000 acres of paddock about 5 acres had a good bit of rain overnight. The rest was dry!


     
  37. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them
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    Probably nothing

    [​IMG]
     
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  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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  39. glug1

    glug1 Hard Yards

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    A bit of thunder and lighting here in Bendigo at the moment (the dog is not happy) Has just started to rain heavily :)
     
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  40. glug1

    glug1 Hard Yards

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    7mm in 5 mins overflowed the gutters, a lot more Th&L, not seen much rain this year so welcomed. Temp went from 36 to 28degs.
     
  41. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Nice storm cell over Jindy at the moment probably 2-3 mm in 20 mins
     
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  42. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
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    Brindies getting a good drop atm. Electrical activity and trying hard to move over Canberra. Where is my ground squall ?
     
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  43. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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    No STW in NSW though, although the radar suggests there's some in the SE.
     
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  44. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    radar showing it just sitting there bubbling...
     
  45. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
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    Dalgety and the Monaro getting a bit.
     
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  46. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us

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    It’s similar to a cell that sat just to the East of Moonbah about 6 weeks or so back. Little rain here but a few kms away the road was awash.

    It’s been flash bang here for 2 hours. That’s delivered 1mm in a brief storm of small hail.

    The cell has been sitting in about the same spot as the previous event......

    EDIT:

    Pic 1 looking towards PV



    Pic 2 looking generally towards Dalgety

     
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  47. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Just hope the flash doesn't light up the grass etc out there.
     
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  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    It's looking like snow above 700m for SW Tas on Wednesday arvo/eve IMO.

    SW Tas 7pm, according to EC:
    20-25 knots to 850mb.
    -27C @ 500mb
    FL ~1000m

    That said, it's looking like a pretty dry system. Precip Water values are close to bugger-all. Most areas will be lucky to see 10-15mm in the SW of the State.
    I am seeing <5mm for Melbourne and surrounds.

    IMO no mainland snow this week.
     
  49. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture
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    Just looking forward to the cooler temperatures honestly
     
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  50. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
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    GFS Mixing ratios @ 850 hPa with temps.10pm Tues. As Pow said not a great deal of moisture potential.
     
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