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The 2019 Autumn ground cooling thread

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Jellybeans, Mar 1, 2019.

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  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    SW Tas Wednesday night:
    Bring on Sub -30C @ 500mb
    [​IMG]
     
  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Towers for hours to the West and South of Sydney today, which is odd as progged CAPE wasn’t looking so lofty until later. Started early it seems...
    The cheeky cell over Kiama looks to be kicking off quick. Below is a little stack out Colo way.
     
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  3. davidg

    davidg Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just want some goddamn rain. It is dry AF out this way. Forecast rain from that weak trough on the 9th and 10th is diminishing with each model run, which isn't entirely surprising.
     
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  4. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah massive cell to the south

    will have the guts cut out of it by the onshore
     
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  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Another one stacking in behind it.
     
  6. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    Keeping an eye out for Will Smith, but pretty sure it’s not July 4th.

    (Holy crap, that movie sucked)
     
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  7. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thats behind my house

    rumbling
     
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  8. SnowdOva

    SnowdOva Hard Yards

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    looking West from Millers point

    That’s the Hotel Palisade in the foreground looking like it’s about to be engulfed
     

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  9. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ahh sorry you guys have one in Sydney as well
     
  10. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks busy on the Yarrawonga radar.
     
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  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah it's the Waragamba Dam one.
     
  12. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    yeah Kiama looked good an hour or so back.
    young bloke was going for a surf South Gong wanted to know was it going to light up.
     
  13. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Purple core here. Just over West wollongong
     
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  14. davidg

    davidg Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    About to get nailed here in North Penrith, plenty of bolts dropping.Big CG's looking out the window to my east.

    Just started hailing here as well along with some pretty heavy rain.
     
  15. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    You just got thumped according to the radar...
     
  16. davidg

    davidg Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well that died a very quick death! Bit of rain, bit of hail but not much more to write home about.
     
  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM meeting me half way from 900m to snow to 800m on this evenings update for tomorrow in Tas:
     
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  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    20mm at Mount Buller from 4-5pm this arvo.
     
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  19. Timmossy

    Timmossy One of Us

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    Guess that why my roof leaked......
     
  20. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I suspect that system moved over the NSW side of the range in the last few hours. Strong winds, some rain and thunder. PV seems to be getting some but less than Buller.

    Here is how it looked on approach around 7:15.




    EDIT:

     
  21. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Rain and stormy in Jindy. Probably about 3mm in an hour at a guess.
     
  22. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wind has picked up in Kambah.
     
  23. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC is showing the next precipitation event to be the 12th, again not a lot of rainfall at the moment.


    GFS and GEM 0z prefer the 10th for a precipitation event, with the node on the 12th confined to Tasmania on GFS specifically.
     
  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, that’s the hopeful one for now.
    I note EC has it upgraded on 00z Vs earlier runs, so it’s trending ok.

    Ensembles also liking some trough-based precip 4-5 days later, but that's light years away yet.
     
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  25. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah I saw that too, but the determs are struggling at a 4-5 day range ATM, so agree that it is distant. Verification is relatively low at the moment IMO. As to be expected as we move into Autumn, but could also be other factors.
     
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  26. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sustained -‘ive AAO/SOI is giving the models a good reason to take Taswegian snowfall with some seriousness.
    Not nodal by any means but dilated will do.
    [​IMG]
     
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  27. Kayden

    Kayden Hard Yards

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    Its defiantly starting to feel like autumn down here in Tas, backyard is already starting to collect leaves and the mornings have been cool and foggy.
     
  28. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    We're still waiting. Hopefully tomorrow, briefly anyway.
     
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  29. ojisan

    ojisan Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    has felt like mid-jan in sydney over the past few days... heat & humidity makes it very uncomfortable
     
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  30. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nice Southerly this morning. Breeze has a bit of cool in it.
     
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  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snow flurry or Hail on Mount Mawson, Tas this morning.
     
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  32. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Interesting recap of summer if you have 5 mins to spare:

     
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  33. melty68

    melty68 One of Us

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    Looks to be snowing on Baw Baw cams
     
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  34. Snowy Joey

    Snowy Joey One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    12c in Emerald. 7mm rain, some small hail and now thunder. What a difference!!
     
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  35. Snowy Joey

    Snowy Joey One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    17.6mm at ferny creek according to BOM weather station there.
     
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  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    There was a lot more water in Gardiners creek this morning than I expected.
     
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  37. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'd say you are right, some fat flake on the cams right now:

     
  38. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    peak season
     
  39. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    boooooom, going home to scrape of that summer wax
     
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  40. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    #PhatFlakes
     
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  41. Jacko4650

    Jacko4650 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Big flakes at Baw Baw right now.
     
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  42. Jacko4650

    Jacko4650 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    And Mt Mawson. Bring it on Huey!
     
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  43. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

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    Finally some rain here in Canberra after 4 long weeks. 10mm in the gauge at my house in Kambah.
     
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  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  45. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    PV just under minus 6 this morning according to BOM. Cams showed a little frost early on.

    And just below zero at Moonbah.

     
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  46. chicski

    chicski A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Full winter kit on my Canberra ride this morning. Garmin says av 3c with temps down to 0c.
     
  47. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    The kiss of cold air on my face leaving home this morning in Melbourne almost made me cry from happiness. I have a friend who lives in Gisborne and she called me to excitedly say she needed to scrape a bit of ice off her car window.

    We're a crazy bunch us cold lovers.
     
  48. davidg

    davidg Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Great doggo. 10/10
     
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  49. VSG

    VSG Crayon Master Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Incoming...

     
  50. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like the MJO is about to run into the "brick wall" downunder.

    [​IMG]
     
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