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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Jellybeans, Mar 1, 2019.
SW Tas Wednesday night:
Bring on Sub -30C @ 500mb
Towers for hours to the West and South of Sydney today, which is odd as progged CAPE wasn’t looking so lofty until later. Started early it seems...
The cheeky cell over Kiama looks to be kicking off quick. Below is a little stack out Colo way.
Just want some goddamn rain. It is dry AF out this way. Forecast rain from that weak trough on the 9th and 10th is diminishing with each model run, which isn't entirely surprising.
Yeah massive cell to the south
will have the guts cut out of it by the onshore
Another one stacking in behind it.
Keeping an eye out for Will Smith, but pretty sure it’s not July 4th.
(Holy crap, that movie sucked)
Thats behind my house
looking West from Millers point
That’s the Hotel Palisade in the foreground looking like it’s about to be engulfed
Ahh sorry you guys have one in Sydney as well
Looks busy on the Yarrawonga radar.
Yeah it's the Waragamba Dam one.
yeah Kiama looked good an hour or so back.
young bloke was going for a surf South Gong wanted to know was it going to light up.
Purple core here. Just over West wollongong
About to get nailed here in North Penrith, plenty of bolts dropping.Big CG's looking out the window to my east.
Just started hailing here as well along with some pretty heavy rain.
You just got thumped according to the radar...
Well that died a very quick death! Bit of rain, bit of hail but not much more to write home about.
BOM meeting me half way from 900m to snow to 800m on this evenings update for tomorrow in Tas:
20mm at Mount Buller from 4-5pm this arvo.
Guess that why my roof leaked......
I suspect that system moved over the NSW side of the range in the last few hours. Strong winds, some rain and thunder. PV seems to be getting some but less than Buller.
Here is how it looked on approach around 7:15.
Rain and stormy in Jindy. Probably about 3mm in an hour at a guess.
Wind has picked up in Kambah.
EC is showing the next precipitation event to be the 12th, again not a lot of rainfall at the moment.
GFS and GEM 0z prefer the 10th for a precipitation event, with the node on the 12th confined to Tasmania on GFS specifically.
Yeah, that’s the hopeful one for now.
I note EC has it upgraded on 00z Vs earlier runs, so it’s trending ok.
Ensembles also liking some trough-based precip 4-5 days later, but that's light years away yet.
Yeah I saw that too, but the determs are struggling at a 4-5 day range ATM, so agree that it is distant. Verification is relatively low at the moment IMO. As to be expected as we move into Autumn, but could also be other factors.
Sustained -‘ive AAO/SOI is giving the models a good reason to take Taswegian snowfall with some seriousness.
Not nodal by any means but dilated will do.
Its defiantly starting to feel like autumn down here in Tas, backyard is already starting to collect leaves and the mornings have been cool and foggy.
We're still waiting. Hopefully tomorrow, briefly anyway.
has felt like mid-jan in sydney over the past few days... heat & humidity makes it very uncomfortable
Nice Southerly this morning. Breeze has a bit of cool in it.
Snow flurry or Hail on Mount Mawson, Tas this morning.
Interesting recap of summer if you have 5 mins to spare:
Looks to be snowing on Baw Baw cams
12c in Emerald. 7mm rain, some small hail and now thunder. What a difference!!
17.6mm at ferny creek according to BOM weather station there.
There was a lot more water in Gardiners creek this morning than I expected.
I'd say you are right, some fat flake on the cams right now:
boooooom, going home to scrape of that summer wax
Big flakes at Baw Baw right now.
And Mt Mawson. Bring it on Huey!
Finally some rain here in Canberra after 4 long weeks. 10mm in the gauge at my house in Kambah.
PV just under minus 6 this morning according to BOM. Cams showed a little frost early on.
And just below zero at Moonbah.
Full winter kit on my Canberra ride this morning. Garmin says av 3c with temps down to 0c.
The kiss of cold air on my face leaving home this morning in Melbourne almost made me cry from happiness. I have a friend who lives in Gisborne and she called me to excitedly say she needed to scrape a bit of ice off her car window.
We're a crazy bunch us cold lovers.
Great doggo. 10/10
Looks like the MJO is about to run into the "brick wall" downunder.