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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Jellybeans, Mar 1, 2019.
Looking like a take-up of a secondary pulse South of India by the time the instigator hits us.
Bit of snow in New Zealand again this morning; Mt Hutt with the most.
Killer sunrise over the bulldog this morn.
Where is this mate? What an amazing view of the hills...
If I was to hazard a guess it's Buller off in the far distance
Was wondering the same.
Bulldog = Buller.
So shot from Sawmill, I reckon. Changue Road?
Yeah something like that. Looks like a nice morning to be out on the water (i.e. Delatite), although when I was up that way in January I didn't spot a fish for the couple of hours I was out there.
Could always try the Big or the Goulburn below the pondage I guess, not too far from there. It'd be a great spot to have a home.
Looks shot from a bit further away than Changue Road. More like Alpine Ridge Drive or even further out I reckon. Great photo.
Off to Queenstown next Thursday. Fingers crossed we see some snow sprinkled on the peaks around the place.
Alpine Ridge Drive near Buller or locally called ‘The ARD’. Not a bad place to live, cold AF in winter.
What a view to have every day, this is my goal in time except probably in Mt Beauty.
Thanks for sharing, sure hope you post more in the future.
Snow to 900m in SW Tasmania on Tuesday IMO.
Quite a bad smoke haze in Melbourne today, looks to be worse over eastern suburbs - no surprises
Bit late, I know, but thank you -'ive AAO, finally some negative anoms:
Is the MJO actually going to stall - seems to be pushing steadily east at a reasonable pulse. BMO is bullish that the monsoon trough will shift south. Maybe the "Brick Wall" is made of paper mache.
Just work with me here...
We've had the coldest March temperatures in 10 years up in the NSW Snowies.
Australia's lowest March temperature on record was -7.2 degrees at Kiandra Chalet in NSW during 1964.
1964 was one of the best snow years this country has seen. Total snow depth at Spencer’s Creek – 355.6cm.
I'm calling it now, 2019 will be fantastic !
More anomolies can swing both ways unfortunately. The global budget is like a bunch of vagaboond thieves.
Hey, I'm going off 1 data point using the most dodgiest assumptions; what could go wrong ?
If a 3m base appears in July, I can say I told you so.
If it doesn't I can just say I wasn't serious
I can't lose can I ?
Zonal flow plot for the 15th. Click on image
Too much of this guy
Possibly also a significant influence from differential heating ( angle of the sun between equator and pole) Zonal components can be rather perplexing at times.
Another gorgeous day in the ACT.
I like the way you think.
Might get a shower this afternoon in Melbourne.
Nice little corresponding upper level vort line forming:
A bit of rain in Burnley.
Held off for the Birdman Rally on the Yarra fortunately.
Didn't know Moomba was on. How was the Birdman?
Quieter than I expected. And nothing too impressive with the actual birdman.
Lots of mid level cloud over Canberra. Radar showing a bit of promise.
Fizzer. Low level divergence
10C in Canberra this morning, you lucky people. 23C in Sydney
A little rain here last night at Lake Crackenback (near Thredbo). Beautiful morning now that the mist has burned away ...
Rain accumulation 10 days EC...
We may actually get a banger here in Brisbogan this afternoon.
There's been a distinct lack of them this Summer.
Can’t see it TBH. The neg Zonals have been there all summer and barely made a dent in any of our rainfall, here to Bega.
EC is over cooking it IMO.
GFS looks vastly different.
We can hope
Stuck in ENSO neutral times.
Personally, I think the models have really struggled with anything Tasman related this summer.
Extraordinarily +’ive SSTs
- ‘ive zonal winds
Lack of PWAT
Oma included, I reckon the models are flakey on the whole region.
EPS looking like it is giving something around the 24-26 March period a go.
For Perisher Valley.
Still a long way to go, and spring verification at this range is lower than winter, but the first signs are encouraging.
I blame NZ
Absolutely magnificent weather here in Canberra
Looks like the Brick Wall is holding. Forget about Autumn rains - more like Autumn fires.
Highly likely that the signal falls apart over our region, but it's looking like it gets a secondary birth through the Indian Ocean for a re-phase.
Looking forward to CPC's latest update sometime tomorrow. Not sure it's worth getting ahead of the plots - models suck at plotting them through our region, over any other.
I am pretty sure the models also just endured a bout of influenza with Typhoon Wutip through Guam a fortnight ago... So there's that.
....feeling like 2006.
27-29th is one to watch IMO. EC looking volatile for the SE around that window.
GFS looks kinda into it too.
Meanwhile, back at the ranch....
Sure looks like the next week or two in Melbourne will be warm for Autumn. Today and tomorrow aside, we have high 20s for the foreseeable future.
Mind you, it is only barely Autumn and I feel like this happens every year...
This mornings GFS showing a keen eye for this system also, now too:
...And a deep system for the 28th, as mentioned above. This looks more like an NZ swipe on GFS, yet.
Good to see some model similarities.
The EPS trough anomaly and snowfall ensemble trend is pushing back towards the period @POW_hungry is suggesting, currently something like 25-28 March ATM.
Roeburn says - hang on a minute, hold my beer mate: