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The 2019 Autumn ground cooling thread

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Jellybeans, Mar 1, 2019.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking like a take-up of a secondary pulse South of India by the time the instigator hits us.
     
  2. Jacko4650

    Jacko4650 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Bit of snow in New Zealand again this morning; Mt Hutt with the most.
     
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  3. Timmossy

    Timmossy One of Us

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    Killer sunrise over the bulldog this morn.
     
  4. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Where is this mate? What an amazing view of the hills...
     
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  5. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    If I was to hazard a guess it's Buller off in the far distance
     
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  6. Jacko4650

    Jacko4650 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Was wondering the same.
     
  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bulldog = Buller.
    So shot from Sawmill, I reckon. Changue Road?
     
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  8. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah something like that. Looks like a nice morning to be out on the water (i.e. Delatite), although when I was up that way in January I didn't spot a fish for the couple of hours I was out there.
    Could always try the Big or the Goulburn below the pondage I guess, not too far from there. It'd be a great spot to have a home.
     
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  9. blueandwhite

    blueandwhite One of Us

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    Looks shot from a bit further away than Changue Road. More like Alpine Ridge Drive or even further out I reckon. Great photo.
     
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  10. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    Off to Queenstown next Thursday. Fingers crossed we see some snow sprinkled on the peaks around the place.
     
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  11. Timmossy

    Timmossy One of Us

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    Alpine Ridge Drive near Buller or locally called ‘The ARD’. Not a bad place to live, cold AF in winter.
     
  12. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    What a view to have every day, this is my goal in time except probably in Mt Beauty.

    Thanks for sharing, sure hope you post more in the future.
     
  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snow to 900m in SW Tasmania on Tuesday IMO.
     
  14. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Quite a bad smoke haze in Melbourne today, looks to be worse over eastern suburbs - no surprises
     
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  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bit late, I know, but thank you -'ive AAO, finally some negative anoms:
     
  16. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Is the MJO actually going to stall - seems to be pushing steadily east at a reasonable pulse. BMO is bullish that the monsoon trough will shift south. Maybe the "Brick Wall" is made of paper mache.

    [​IMG]
     
  17. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just work with me here...

    We've had the coldest March temperatures in 10 years up in the NSW Snowies.

    Australia's lowest March temperature on record was -7.2 degrees at Kiandra Chalet in NSW during 1964.

    1964 was one of the best snow years this country has seen. Total snow depth at Spencer’s Creek – 355.6cm.



    I'm calling it now, 2019 will be fantastic ! :)
     
  18. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    More anomolies can swing both ways unfortunately. The global budget is like a bunch of vagaboond thieves.
     
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  19. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hey, I'm going off 1 data point using the most dodgiest assumptions; what could go wrong ?
     
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  20. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Unicorns appear.
     
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  21. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    If a 3m base appears in July, I can say I told you so.
    If it doesn't I can just say I wasn't serious

    I can't lose can I ? ;)
     
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  22. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Zonal flow plot for the 15th. Click on image Too much of this guy Possibly also a significant influence from differential heating ( angle of the sun between equator and pole) Zonal components can be rather perplexing at times.
     
  23. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Another gorgeous day in the ACT.
     
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  24. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    I like the way you think.
     
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  25. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Might get a shower this afternoon in Melbourne.

     
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  26. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nice little corresponding upper level vort line forming:
    [​IMG]
     
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  27. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    A bit of rain in Burnley.

    Held off for the Birdman Rally on the Yarra fortunately.
     
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  28. Tanuki

    Tanuki A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Di
    Didn't know Moomba was on. How was the Birdman?
     
  29. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Quieter than I expected. And nothing too impressive with the actual birdman.
     
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  30. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Lots of mid level cloud over Canberra. Radar showing a bit of promise.
     
  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    2-3mm maybe.
    [​IMG]
     
  32. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Fizzer. Low level divergence :(
     
  33. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    10C in Canberra this morning, you lucky people. 23C in Sydney :rolleyes:
     
  34. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

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    A little rain here last night at Lake Crackenback (near Thredbo). Beautiful morning now that the mist has burned away ...



     
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  35. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Rain accumulation 10 days EC...
     
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  36. dibl0c

    dibl0c ... not as special as I think I am. Ski Pass: Gold

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    We may actually get a banger here in Brisbogan this afternoon.

    There's been a distinct lack of them this Summer.
     
  37. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Can’t see it TBH. The neg Zonals have been there all summer and barely made a dent in any of our rainfall, here to Bega.
    EC is over cooking it IMO.

    GFS looks vastly different.
     
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  38. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    We can hope
     
  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Stuck in ENSO neutral times.

    Personally, I think the models have really struggled with anything Tasman related this summer.
    • Extraordinarily +’ive SSTs
    • - ‘ive zonal winds
    • Lack of PWAT
    Oma included, I reckon the models are flakey on the whole region.
     
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  40. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    EPS looking like it is giving something around the 24-26 March period a go.

    For Perisher Valley.



    Still a long way to go, and spring verification at this range is lower than winter, but the first signs are encouraging.
     
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  41. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I blame NZ
     
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  42. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Absolutely magnificent weather here in Canberra

     
  43. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like the Brick Wall is holding. Forget about Autumn rains - more like Autumn fires.

    [​IMG]
     
  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Highly likely that the signal falls apart over our region, but it's looking like it gets a secondary birth through the Indian Ocean for a re-phase.
    Looking forward to CPC's latest update sometime tomorrow. Not sure it's worth getting ahead of the plots - models suck at plotting them through our region, over any other.
    I am pretty sure the models also just endured a bout of influenza with Typhoon Wutip through Guam a fortnight ago... So there's that.
     
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  45. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    ....feeling like 2006. :out:
     
  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    27-29th is one to watch IMO. EC looking volatile for the SE around that window.
    GFS looks kinda into it too.

    Meanwhile, back at the ranch....
     
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  47. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sure looks like the next week or two in Melbourne will be warm for Autumn. Today and tomorrow aside, we have high 20s for the foreseeable future.

    Mind you, it is only barely Autumn and I feel like this happens every year...
     
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  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    This mornings GFS showing a keen eye for this system also, now too:
    [​IMG]

    ...And a deep system for the 28th, as mentioned above. This looks more like an NZ swipe on GFS, yet.
    [​IMG]
     
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  49. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Good to see some model similarities.
    The EPS trough anomaly and snowfall ensemble trend is pushing back towards the period @POW_hungry is suggesting, currently something like 25-28 March ATM.
     
  50. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Roeburn says - hang on a minute, hold my beer mate: