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The 2019 Autumn ground cooling thread

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Jellybeans, Mar 1, 2019.

  1. bywong_yuki

    bywong_yuki Addicted

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    Looks messy. Potential for some more NSW cropping area rain.
    I know here in Canberra the ground is starting to hold a bit of moisture now that has a chance to actually soak into the lower layers of soil thanks to the cooler temps.
     
  2. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  3. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, looking like a WA peak on latest EC.

    EPS ensemble is off it. Favours 23-26 May, but I reckon that might get pushed back a bit too. EC looks like in that 23-25 May timeline. Either way, only time will tell.
     
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  4. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Weather numbers seem to be tracking close to May 2018 - main difference is the lack of a major forecast fizzing out.

    However, this gives me hope that things will pump up nicely in a couple of weeks.

     
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  5. Rick Ross Da Boss

    Rick Ross Da Boss One of Us

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    The Great ocean road marathon is on next Sunday, any predictions on conditions.
    Weatherzone looks like 14 and thunderstorms which will make it fun :cool:
     
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  6. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC thinks it will be wet late in the afternoon.
    GFS thinks it will be mostly dry, chance of a shower all day.

    GFS seems to be honing in on the 25th with today's 12z run.


    EPS is pushing back to the 26th.
     
  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I am a big fan of the 26-30th May window.
    It's got dump written all over it. Season starter IMO.
     
  8. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

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    Late May dumps stick.
     
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  9. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Perfect timing for my little trip and proposal :)
     
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  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I observe the first turns of the Aus season 2019 were had yesterday.
     
  11. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    They do indeed.

    LWT/RRWT looks pretty much in line for something in the period POW discusses on the 26-30 May or maybe a smidge later. Those charts do look very nice, I agree they would be a season starter if to eventuate.


    QB Long weekend itself looks like there might be a ridge over it.

    14-20 June is the next on the radar in terms of the LWT, probably the next period to go looking for systems in the long long term.
     
  12. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    In terms of models, the 18-21 May period looks like a ridge out for the mainland, but does still have a decent chance of snow to Tassie.

    Perhaps a chance of snow for Bluff Knoll in WA on Friday. Very nice looking cold pool over there on EC.


    GFS 00z likes the 25th. EC 00z also shows some support for it downstream.


    One potential scenario could be a system on 25-27 May and another following 29 May-3 June or something like that. This would agree with the extended LWT node period.

    Anyway, end of the month is definitely one for the watch list.
     
  13. melty68

    melty68 One of Us

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    A few weeks of some frost and cold nights ...usual late may.the highs allways win at this time of year.
     
  14. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  15. VSG

    VSG Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well, that 50cm for Vic resorts went well.
     
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  16. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

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    Thredbo fired up the guns on FF last night nice.
     
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  17. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Igloo(Buxton) has fired up wood heater....very toasty !
     
  18. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Cool and dry

    Boring

    Wake me in 3 weeks
     
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  19. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Is there any teleconnection between the MJO and that big cold spot in purple. They are both in apx the same longitude and appear to be tracking around the globe roughly together. Progression seems to line up with end of month over our part of the world as well. Is this a fluke - or is there some teleconnection at play as well. I did see the Cat 1s that the MJO managed to spin up.
     
  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    MJO & RW are typically in teleconnection, with a strong pulse of either initiating +'ive meridional flow and anomalous atmospherical instab - it's the very reason why we hunt a good MJO pulse, it's a little easier to track given it's around the equator and very identifiable.
     
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  21. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Look at the AAO...

    The negative drop in the AAO, is probably a key catalyst for allowing the LWT to push up towards SE Australia.

    The main driver for this entire period of early season snowfall, has been negative AAM in our region. This means there are less zonal winds in our region, which are correlated with big cold nodes with a meridional flow , disrupting the standard zonal jetstream.

    That yellow anomaly at 50S would be correlated with a deep low similar to the RRWT chart in my post yesterday.

    The MJO and the polar regions are connected through the GWO framework above.
     
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  22. Big_Red_60

    Big_Red_60 Hard Yards

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    Do they still do the Cathedral Burger? We used to go there after skiing at LM.
     
  23. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  24. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    So. How much did Baw Baw get ? Was offline all weekend climbing.
     
  25. chriscross

    chriscross One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Zilch. Total fizzer.
     
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  26. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nothing. Too warm.
     
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  27. nezumi

    nezumi Addicted

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    :cry:

    I was really looking forward to some light coverage to take Little Mister and his mum to Lake Mountain for mother's day - ended up being a whole lotta nothin.
     
  28. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  29. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Next time Team Bears will take photo of their menu!The town with the big Stihl chainsaw has to be worth a visit .....we got sandwiches cut there before our brush cutting adventures.I thought if Team Bears are going to work hard then they need top nutrition .

    Oops...better throw in some weather commentary.....
    No snow :skis:observed at Keppels or Mt Margaret...:skier:..but the frontal system obviously brought a good drop of rain and must have been windy..:emoji_palm_tree:..as some new trees were across roads.....
     
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  30. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    yep - the RWs spun off beautifully on this pass through the Coral Sea. They are like clockwork watching them spin away from the equator. earthschool plays them nicely.
     
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  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's looking like the shortwave through SW WA this week (Wed) will rapidly deepen around Esperance and draw in some tropical moisture from (soon-to-be) Ex TC Ann which is on a swift course through the GoC by Wednesday/Thursday.

    The result is the potential to see some good troughing through the NT, SA and possibly the Eastern States, namely Vic by Monday. Whatever makes it fall from the sky, really...
     
  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    For keepsake...
    EC Ensembles touching on a multi-headed beast 26-29 May.

     
  33. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    The whole EPS ensemble mean looks really good too.

    You didn't see that with the system before. There's certainly something more of gravitas with this intital model forecast.
     
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  34. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  35. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    With EPS and FV3 onboard, it's getting pretty close.
     
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  36. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Turned out like you called it a few days out. Cold air went up into central nsw and largely missed the alps.
     
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  37. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    This coming weekend sees the potential for a fair bit of tropical moisture to stream down into SA/Vic. Not a whole lot of model consensus though. Good for the crops if it happens.
     
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  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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  39. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    The BOM have released their latest ENSO wrap-up, downgrading an El Niño to Watch status.
    Link here and screen grab below:

     
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  40. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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  41. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Latest GFS 00z is onboard for 26-29 May.


    The low setup is bizarre, but the support for some sort of system is what we are looking for at this point.
     
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  42. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  43. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    That's quite funky. Reminds me a bit of last year's season starter in mid-June 2018.
     
  44. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    ?
     
  45. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us

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    In NSW! Possibly Bogong & Feathertop, Oz Drift & the Loch ‘Glacier’???
     
  46. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    FV3 and ERA Interim dont like it atm.
     
  47. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us

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    Good shot!
    This where I’d like to see a snowcam - up high in the snow, as opposed to various village cams at the ‘ snowline’

    Just a thought.
     
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  48. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cheers mate.
    I took my gf up on Saturday as she'd never seen snow in Australia (she's a Queenslander), but spent plenty of time in Colorado. Thankfully there was still a few patches up there on the summit. It was just above zero up there and the thick cloud spoiled the views. Still worthwhile getting up into the High Country though. Always.
     
  49. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Would you mind posting a picture of ERA Interim?
     
  50. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    How was Bonnie doon?