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The 2019 Autumn ground cooling thread

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Jellybeans, Mar 1, 2019.

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  1. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Water was very low. Haven’t seen it like that since IIRC 2009. Quite different to january when I was up last and there was still plenty of water.
     
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  2. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Was terrible at easter.
    It wasn't that it was empty. It was also so effing dry.
    And 30 degrees
     
  3. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Fine day around Marysville...no rain today cool to mild with a far bit of sunshine..
     
  4. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Control
     
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  5. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    ERA Interim Ensemble Mean reanalysis-
     
  6. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    does she lift bro?
     
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  7. dibl0c

    dibl0c A man without wasta is not a man! Ski Pass: Gold

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    #shitadelaide or #brisbogan ... take your pick.
    :eek:
     
  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Let's see how this cut off low in the Eucla does this weekend and work from that.
     
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  9. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Flicked through all the Ensemble members yet ? Its quite a mess,,,
     
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  10. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    That's the reality of an ensemble at this range. They are often like that. It's all about the trend really.
     
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  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I hear ya, but nah, when it comes to LR I look every few days... Run to run it's a mindfk.
     
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  12. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes. Could go anywhere from here. Gutters and strikes run to run. It is however Mid May and and probably a number of members on here eager to lengthen the stirrups on the unicorn saddle.
     
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  13. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    I agree that it can change and am not ruling out that possibility, but I agree largely with what POW says above. There is definitely a trend here that has been developing for at least a week or so.
     
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  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I've always found that when you've got decent anoms in the mid-range (such as below), the LR always falls apart. Ensembles included.
    Models are bandying support on this thing, but it's a roadblock at the moment, even at 4 days out.
    At the end of the day, a cut-off like this is a cyclone - and models are notoriously troubled by clones.
    [​IMG]
     
    bywong_yuki, Cubed, SMSkier and 4 others like this.
  15. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    obs the guns are blasting with robust temp inversion
     
  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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  18. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    Some BBC (Big Beautiful Clouds) south of the city.

     
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  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    TCu or Cumulus Congestus aka BBC
     
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  20. bywong_yuki

    bywong_yuki One of Us

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    I have to say that @Jellybeans, @POW_hungry and @Kletterer plus anyone I missed (sorry) do me an incredible service by crystal baling so far into the future and deciphering all the trends in the models. You do an amazing job as I keep a fairly close eye on your long term predictions for my work and it is surprising how accurate they are. Obviously the shorter the time frame the more accurate. I just want to say Thanks.
     
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  21. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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  22. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS is definitely sticking to it's forecast from last night.

    EPS is back on both the control and the ensemble mean for the end of the month period.



    The Control is largely showing a cut-off low on the 25th (which is also signalled by EC Determ) and a much colder dump coming in on the 28th onwards.

    The specific dates and details will change, but it is largely firmed up that there will be some sort of event around this period, and that there is potential for a large snowfall.
     
  23. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    May 2000 with a bit of a delay hehe let's hope so
     
  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Once bitten, twice shy... A little to close to home, off the back of the w/e's system; with all that cold air passing us by through Western Vic.
    Fortunately, GFS does a top job of regurgitating recent scenarios.:rolleyes:
    Positive signs nonetheless.
     
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  25. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    The combined input of a few of the real guns on here provides amazingly accurate forecasts in most cases. It's also great having so much information summarised in one place. Perfect for BC adventures for time-poor fair-weather heroes like me haha.
     
  26. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    GFS staying with it, i dont know how to read charts that well but looks like 30mm of moisture within the 540 ring
     
  27. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

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    Yes agree Sydney weather next 7 days wow low to mid 20s all week beautiful.
     
  28. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The GFS 300hPa windstream evolution from 19th - 28th looks to be giving off clues of struggling with initial conditions as well as other parameters. We need to get the next 5 days out of the way .
     
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  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep, it's a mess as you put it yesterday. Glitchy trends and rehashed scenarios smell like flakey models.
    Wake me on Saturday to watch the Eucla dust storm….
     
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  30. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep Assimilation aint always shining its light . Your post # 1524 pretty much sums it up imo.
     
  31. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Some stupidly warm weather forecast for Sydney early next week :rolleyes:
     
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  32. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Melbourne's going to be in the 21s on the weekend as well, with nights approaching the mid teens. April weather in mid May... Reminds me of last year
     
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  33. Rick Ross Da Boss

    Rick Ross Da Boss One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Perfect for great ocean road marathons :thumbs:
     
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  34. Red_switch

    Red_switch Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: 30 Day

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    "Terra" is a bit ambiguous here, he's referring to the MODIS sensor, one of several aboard the Terra satellite, as well as Aqua.
     
  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  36. Red_switch

    Red_switch Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: 30 Day

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    Hmm maybe. Seems a slight stretch to me.
     
  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    SWS AURORA WATCH
    ISSUED AT 0617 UT on 14 May 2019
    Solar wind parameters suggest that the Earth may be currently under the influence of unanticipated CME. There is a chance aurora may be visible tonight (14 May) over southern Australian regions, particularly for Tasmania. The previous two slow moving CMEs originating from disappearing solar filaments are still expected to impact the Earth around 05UT on 15 May and 09UT on 16 May, respectively. Should periods of sustained southward IMF occur, auroral displays over southern Australian regions are likely to continue on the local nights of 15 and 16 May. Further Warnings and/or alerts will follow if a geoeffective CME is observed and/or significant geomagnetic activity actually occurs.
     
  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    NZ too, of course.

     
  39. Red_switch

    Red_switch Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: 30 Day

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    Yeah, I'm looking at a location specific model, and nada. Not that ot would matter tonight, she's pretty shite and stormy out!
     
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  40. Nidecker

    Nidecker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Same tonight
     
  41. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    Better last night, my Aurora App even pinged me.

    Last night

    Tonight.
     
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  42. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sydney Mon, Tue, Wed forecast is 24, 26, 25.

    26C is (or used to be!) the average January max in Sydney, not the second half of May. Worrying stuff.
     
  43. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS isn't necessarily in agreement as it put the low South of, but EC/GFS going for gale force winds along the Esperance coast on Saturday arvo.
    Strong likelihood at this point that there's going to be some damage to the coastal region.
    [​IMG]
     
  44. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Don't worry The Brick Wall (tm) will protect us from the hordes and the weather.
     
  45. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Jane as usual has a good overview of the rain event pending for Central Australia and SA, including the run of warm days (for Melbourne) next week:

     
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  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    More referring to the Satellite pass than the sensors onboard, the context of mentioning LandSat 8.
    Nothing to do with Aqua. Right?
     
  47. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nice day in Big H...

    Team Bears trying new bakery....fire not so good here lacks the X factor of the igloo but not bad for commercial enterprise.
    Sunny still and mild already early this morning!
    Perfect day for chainsawing stuff.
     
  48. Red_switch

    Red_switch Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: 30 Day

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    Yeah but when you refer to Terra, you could be referring to any of the following instruments:
    MODIS
    ASTER
    MISR
    CERES
    MOPITT

    And MODIS is found aboard both TERRA and AQUA.

    Landsat is a bit simpler because we only have the OLI and TIRS instruments, and they are deployed as part of the same mission.

    It seems a bit pedantic, but NASA do prefer when you are instrument specific when sharing their data.
     
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  49. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Beautiful day over the Black Sour....very mild.....throw a sickie perhaps if weather continues like this over next few days....glorious mild and sunny!
     
  50. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cheers for that. Yeah thought as much.
     
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