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The 2019 Autumn ground cooling thread

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Jellybeans, Mar 1, 2019.

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  1. dmz

    dmz More cheeeese Gromit Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just had a mate report on the Falls Creek underground glacier. It's still intact :thumbs:
     
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  2. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us

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    Some interesting points there.

    I do wonder if our land agencies burn the same favourite spots every cple years, do they indeed Create a fire - tolerant (loving) habitat?

    I dont live in the bush but it does seem as the bush residents cant /wont be listen to science - be it HRBs, CC, water, species protection and feral species management.

    Who really wants the glass-tower bureaucrats telling them what to do but if we throw out science/facts & govt. we’re really just an angry lynch mob O’South!
     
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  3. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Without sounding daft - what is that and can I look for it next week when I am there?
     
  4. phrozen

    phrozen Hard Yards

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    Absolute long shot, but is there any chance at all that any of the events over the coming week will drop a dusting on the Grampians area? Will be in there area on the 2nd of June
     
  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sure, Mount William should see a bit. But I reckon Buckley’s chance of lasting till the 2nd.
     
  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Miskelly is aluding to some kind of PLOT TWIST. LOL
     
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  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    @Donzah looking like a few Southerly scud showers pushing up past you. You’d have to be lucky to be hit by one yet though.
     
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  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hold the phone @Donzah small popper inbound for me.
     
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  10. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Justin Belieber!
     
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  11. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

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    Big flash bangs off the coast at Helensburgh atm
     
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  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Southerly rain train forming.
     
  13. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Feather in cap and takes a bow
     
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  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Registers in an AWS or it didn’t happen knackers!
     
  15. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    wattamolla!

    neg

    Inbound on K bay.
     
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  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Precip in anemometers don’t count.
     
  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    How’s the redirect on that one, was heading for Kurnell and shunted NE’ly
     
  18. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    Its not impossible, especially with climate change
     
  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Few drops in Bondi, but not yet a shower @Donzah LOL
     
  20. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    Fark! Upper Blue Mtns.
    Pre bedtime doggy walkies in a pea soup hazard reduction smoke haze apocalypse!
     
  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Long range AAO values show nothing but meridonal flow for the SH.

    Whilst it's a positive for snow enthusiasts one can expect the next LWT node through the SE around the 8-14th June.
    Despite the stalled rotation, there looks to be a moderate push by this stage.


    In short, beyond next week; the next substantial winter push is expected through the SE through 8-12 June period where we also see an MJO pulse in the mix, IMO.
     
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  22. dmz

    dmz More cheeeese Gromit Ski Pass: Gold

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    I first learnt about the Falls Creek underground glacier many years ago when I joined this forum. It is legendary!
     
  23. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    People complaining on FB about the boom crash off the coast all night.

    Setting off the pooches ...woof woof.

    Its still out there.
     
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  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah just the odd flash and thunder here in the E-Burbs. Very coastal.
    Siri just told me expect thunderstorms at 8am. lol.
     
  25. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yup... Mrs google said same.
     
  26. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Isolated popper just off Little Bay growing quick.
     
  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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  28. Snowy Joey

    Snowy Joey One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    6 days of rain forecast for Melbourne. Seems like a long time since we’ve had consecutive days.
     
  29. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    I'm excited
     
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  30. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not to mention temps in the mid-teens. This benign weather can FRO. We've been spoiled right through autumn, now it's time to move on so we can get a dose of winter.
     
  31. Snowy Joey

    Snowy Joey One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    21c again today, going to be a shock when it does finally get cold. Has been great weather to get a few extra jobs done that had fallen by the wayside. Kids ski jackets on the line today after a tech wash. Managed to get another trailer load of firewood too into the woodshed.
     
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  32. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Look at those colours :emoji_black_heart::emoji_black_heart::emoji_black_heart:

     
  33. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking long term....

    I am in agreement with @POW_hungry’s post above.

    Reckon there is definitely something around the 9-14 June. However the latest GFS LWT forecast shows a bit of a weakening of the long wave trough, and plus given RRWT guidance, we may not see that strong of a LWT pass. But there will be some sort of event there IMO, and the aforementioned MJO may be able to compensate.

    Next thing in my radar after that is the 23-29th June, per RRWT/LWT modelling.
     
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  34. Jacko4650

    Jacko4650 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Thanks. If the next system provides a little bit of cover for late May, the next one is opening weekend or thereabouts but not huge and the next system thereafter is not until the end of June, it sounds like it will be man-made pistes until July?
     
  35. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think we will be able to get all the main drags open in the next few weeks IMO.
    As for the rest, I think realistically you start to see options for that maybe in late June, but probably in early July, as usually happens. However I do think it’s a tad early this year, so last week of June is a big chance for the first dump-type system. Or it may be later.

    It’s easiest to pick dates at long range, rather than more nuanced details about system, so there’s plenty of caveats there.
     
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  36. Undies

    Undies Premature Pool Room Person Ski Pass: Gold

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    Any snow before late June is a real bonus, so I wouldn't be expecting much more than the main areas to be open before July. Some years we get lucky and there's some good early dumps, and this year is showing some promise, but the expectation should be for the wider resorts to start opening up in early July, and anything else we get between now and then is cream on top.

    IMO.
     
  37. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    The easiest place to find the answer is probably the statistical reality as stated.
     
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  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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  39. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking out over the Alpine today from CP.....72 hours should rectify that :love:

     
  40. Wally

    Wally One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Had breakfast and a coffee at Bogong yesterday morning. Looks like it won't be green for much longer
     
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  41. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bloody warm in Melbourne overnight. We didn't drop below 16c... Our average daytime temp is 16c!

    Had to throw off the blankets in the early AM. Be happy for the change coming through next week, may it stay around until September.
     
  42. Jasper Schwarz

    Jasper Schwarz One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Very smoky here in Sydney this morning

    Any idea when it will pass?
    Trying to decide if braving uni today is a good idea....
     
  43. Snowy Joey

    Snowy Joey One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hoping to get a fence stained this morning. Don’t think we’ll bother today.
     
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  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    We've got light Westerlies all day today, so I think we're stuck with it.
    Should lift a little with some thermal/urban heating, however.
     
  45. Snowy Joey

    Snowy Joey One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    15c here already this morning. All the best to you @DiscoStuAU for this weekend. Exciting times for you.:cheers:
     
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  46. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like shit on TV.
     
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  47. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thanks :) But it's next weekend :) we head up to falls on friday morning and come back Monday

    Mind you this weekend is just as nerve wracking, buying the ring tomorrow!
     
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  48. davidg

    davidg Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Posted this in the cycling thread but seems relevant here. When fog mixes with smoke, vis down to about 50m.
     
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  49. ojisan

    ojisan Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    terribly smokey and warm in sydney... on the train over the bridge, it was pretty hard to make out anything through the haze.
    Yet another morning where a jumper has not been needed...
     
  50. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cycling to work Beijing style.

    Whereas in the gong. Its clear as clear with a light offshore wind.
     
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