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The 2019 Autumn ground cooling thread

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Jellybeans, Mar 1, 2019.

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  1. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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  2. Gregah

    Gregah Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    Hey POW,
    Are we still in giggle territory on this one...or has it disappeared...or dare I ask...is it still there with some support developing...?!
     
  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, it's still pretty 'out there'.
    I did note HERE that it resurfaced this morning on the 12z run today, but also appeared on the 00z run this arvo.
    There's something there IMO. Problem is; it's spitting out a host various scenarios and remains unsupported by other models yet. I guess, the positive thing is it's signalling 'something' ~9th.

    On the other-hand EC ensembles signal something around the 6th.
    IMO 8-12th June is the period to keep an eye on.
     
    bywong_yuki, SMSkier and Gregah like this.
  4. bywong_yuki

    bywong_yuki One of Us

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    A little cheeky southerly slider. Possible top up followed by what appears to be epic snowmaking weather. IMO.
     
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  5. OlCol

    OlCol Hard Yards

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    Yr.no has this system delivering another 25cm (perisher). Fingers crossed could be close to 1 metre before opening.
     
  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC now going for a small cut off (supported by The Canuck atm) to break through the ridge on the 3rd.
     
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  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Watch this space.
     
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  8. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ground if definately cooling now....Team Bears lying in bed till weather moderates
     
  9. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hey Teckel check this out...
     
  10. cookieman

    cookieman One of Us

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    Team Bears might as well hibernate now as no moderation for about a week now
     
  11. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Oh goodie no moderators?it will a free for all?

    But seriously ....apppears Hotham is getting blizzard like conditions over next few days....nothing like a good blizzard to start winter...not Mickey Mouse events!
    Bit of sun in Melb now...better check out that BOM radar and see what’s down the road ?
     
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  12. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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  13. Jacko4650

    Jacko4650 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Groomer about to starting pushing those old piles.
     
  14. Jacko4650

    Jacko4650 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    SMSkier likes this.
  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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  16. Jasper Schwarz

    Jasper Schwarz One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Especially if we all get our snow dances going!
     
  17. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    really, I was just looking for some discussion on this. any nasty tail in it - or more a case of where it tracks.

    it all seems too good. but it is in keeping with JB's forecast of an early winter.

    The MJO is forecast to stall over Africa for a couple of weeks - which would maintain current conditions and so far that seems to be working for this winter.
     
  18. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS might be coming around to the idea

    [​IMG]
     
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  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Front due tomorrow Arvo has continued to be built on by that mid-level delivery upstream (I posted a graphic on the sat pic last night).
    It’s moisture laden. IMO, Wednesday is looking more and more meh after sunrise.
     
  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Canucks say "come on down"

    [​IMG]
     
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  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Have noticed a further stall in the LWT in the last few runs. It now has every opportunity to beat the ridging again.
    The extraordinarily high amplification of the LWT is something I’ve not seen in a very long time, a few years I reckon. May it continue will into late June!
     
  23. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I was more wondering about next week's Tuesday follow up that 2 days of repeat action?
     
  24. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hey CC (and the brains trust) - does this mean another potential system for Sunday and Monday?

    If so, looks like Saturday and Friday are my only windows for proposal...
     
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  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Argh right. Yeah it’s highly dependable on West Coast system ushering that ridge. GFS backs the strength of the West Coast system. EC and The Canuck reckon it’s overcooking it.
    I reckon it is to, which opens things right up for the SE.
     
  26. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I'd say Monday into Tuesday, if it comes off.
    Sunday should be generally ok.
    IMO
     
  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    We’ll have a better idea tomorrow IMO, but it’s 50/50 at the moment IMO.
     
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  28. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 00z is into the 3rd June system.
    I’m a fan.
     
  29. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  30. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    I'll be running the Western Sydney Marathon on Saturday morning. Gonna be far king cold at the start line
     
  31. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    I'm liking the vibe for June 3 too. More a consolidator than a ground cooler, thus we need a new Winter 2019 thread ...
     
  32. Jasper Schwarz

    Jasper Schwarz One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Winters showed in BBQ thread anyone?
     
  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Decided to break this bad boy down with it's own thread - there's some discussion to be had about this one...
     
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  34. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  35. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    These snow cams are looking good..

    Milder morning in Melb than yesterday...wind chill seems less.
    Rollerblading was completed before noon...then it started to drizzle.
    Lake Mts Carpark cam is caput.
     
  36. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Our main Victorian measuring station is providing valuable data!
     
  37. blueandwhite

    blueandwhite One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Got to say that Jane breaks it down beautifully for the benefit of the weather simpletons (ie me!). Obviously there's a whole lot of additional complexity and drivers that affect these things, but her presentation style with this sort of thing makes it very easy to understand the key issues. Bravo!
     
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  38. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Aliens have come out of the bush on the toboggan run....
    Kids beware!
     
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  39. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Annular mode. I don't know what it is but i get excited when i see those words next to a nice looking blonde.
     
  40. Stephen James Allen

    Stephen James Allen Addicted

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    Charts suggesting June 5 a June 3 follow up. Could be 2000 redux.
     
  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    It snows 30cm in May and all of a sudden everything is Y2k on repeat...:confused:
    (p.s. there's another thread on it...)
     
  42. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Many of our first snow falls are followed by rain.
    Let’s hope weather does not kick back and warm up with heavy rainfall?

    Team Bears don’t want to dampen enthusiasm but from memory it is a regular occurrence.
    Let’s hope it lasts over the next fortnight .
     
  43. Stephen James Allen

    Stephen James Allen Addicted

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    Only 30 cm? Few days to go. Oh well, my mistake, 2006 redux.
     
  44. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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  45. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Jane's monthly Outlook is it, not exactly painting a rosy picture for the rest of 2019:

     
  46. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Drought...Sydney water restrictions commence this week.
     
  47. Big_Red_60

    Big_Red_60 Hard Yards

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    Way too smiley for what is a pretty crap outlook, especially for those who are well into drought in parts of Vic.
     
  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Mid west ‘murica copping super cells left, right and centre at the moment.
     
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  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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  50. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Mexican tradies fleeing the high country?
     
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