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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Jellybeans, Mar 1, 2019.
Are we still in giggle territory on this one...or has it disappeared...or dare I ask...is it still there with some support developing...?!
Yeah, it's still pretty 'out there'.
I did note HERE that it resurfaced this morning on the 12z run today, but also appeared on the 00z run this arvo.
There's something there IMO. Problem is; it's spitting out a host various scenarios and remains unsupported by other models yet. I guess, the positive thing is it's signalling 'something' ~9th.
On the other-hand EC ensembles signal something around the 6th.
IMO 8-12th June is the period to keep an eye on.
A little cheeky southerly slider. Possible top up followed by what appears to be epic snowmaking weather. IMO.
Yr.no has this system delivering another 25cm (perisher). Fingers crossed could be close to 1 metre before opening.
EC now going for a small cut off (supported by The Canuck atm) to break through the ridge on the 3rd.
Watch this space.
Ground if definately cooling now....Team Bears lying in bed till weather moderates
Hey Teckel check this out...
Team Bears might as well hibernate now as no moderation for about a week now
Oh goodie no moderators?it will a free for all?
But seriously ....apppears Hotham is getting blizzard like conditions over next few days....nothing like a good blizzard to start winter...not Mickey Mouse events!
Bit of sun in Melb now...better check out that BOM radar and see what’s down the road ?
Groomer about to starting pushing those old piles.
Yr.No. forecasting some pretty solid falls for Tuesday 3rd June which would be a very nice follow up to this current system if it happens.
It's gonna happen.
Especially if we all get our snow dances going!
really, I was just looking for some discussion on this. any nasty tail in it - or more a case of where it tracks.
it all seems too good. but it is in keeping with JB's forecast of an early winter.
The MJO is forecast to stall over Africa for a couple of weeks - which would maintain current conditions and so far that seems to be working for this winter.
As per the charts above.
Not a done deal quite yet, but promising.
GFS might be coming around to the idea
Front due tomorrow Arvo has continued to be built on by that mid-level delivery upstream (I posted a graphic on the sat pic last night).
It’s moisture laden. IMO, Wednesday is looking more and more meh after sunrise.
Canucks say "come on down"
Have noticed a further stall in the LWT in the last few runs. It now has every opportunity to beat the ridging again.
The extraordinarily high amplification of the LWT is something I’ve not seen in a very long time, a few years I reckon. May it continue will into late June!
I was more wondering about next week's Tuesday follow up that 2 days of repeat action?
Hey CC (and the brains trust) - does this mean another potential system for Sunday and Monday?
If so, looks like Saturday and Friday are my only windows for proposal...
Argh right. Yeah it’s highly dependable on West Coast system ushering that ridge. GFS backs the strength of the West Coast system. EC and The Canuck reckon it’s overcooking it.
I reckon it is to, which opens things right up for the SE.
I'd say Monday into Tuesday, if it comes off.
Sunday should be generally ok.
We’ll have a better idea tomorrow IMO, but it’s 50/50 at the moment IMO.
EC 00z is into the 3rd June system.
I’m a fan.
I'll be running the Western Sydney Marathon on Saturday morning. Gonna be far king cold at the start line
I'm liking the vibe for June 3 too. More a consolidator than a ground cooler, thus we need a new Winter 2019 thread ...
Winters showed in BBQ thread anyone?
Decided to break this bad boy down with it's own thread - there's some discussion to be had about this one...
These snow cams are looking good..
Milder morning in Melb than yesterday...wind chill seems less.
Rollerblading was completed before noon...then it started to drizzle.
Lake Mts Carpark cam is caput.
Our main Victorian measuring station is providing valuable data!
Got to say that Jane breaks it down beautifully for the benefit of the weather simpletons (ie me!). Obviously there's a whole lot of additional complexity and drivers that affect these things, but her presentation style with this sort of thing makes it very easy to understand the key issues. Bravo!
Aliens have come out of the bush on the toboggan run....
Annular mode. I don't know what it is but i get excited when i see those words next to a nice looking blonde.
Charts suggesting June 5 a June 3 follow up. Could be 2000 redux.
It snows 30cm in May and all of a sudden everything is Y2k on repeat...
(p.s. there's another thread on it...)
Many of our first snow falls are followed by rain.
Let’s hope weather does not kick back and warm up with heavy rainfall?
Team Bears don’t want to dampen enthusiasm but from memory it is a regular occurrence.
Let’s hope it lasts over the next fortnight .
Only 30 cm? Few days to go. Oh well, my mistake, 2006 redux.
Jane's monthly Outlook is it, not exactly painting a rosy picture for the rest of 2019:
Drought...Sydney water restrictions commence this week.
Way too smiley for what is a pretty crap outlook, especially for those who are well into drought in parts of Vic.
Mid west ‘murica copping super cells left, right and centre at the moment.
Mexican tradies fleeing the high country?