Mega Thread The agonisingly long autumn thread

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Untele-whippet, Mar 1, 2016.

  1. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    the melody of which was first written by Jeff Wayne for a lego commercial ....reputedly
     
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  2. gareth_oau

    gareth_oau Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Turns out the leaves in the local park are starting to go golden.

    Either that or the recent run of +40 days cooked them LOL
     
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  3. cold wombat

    cold wombat Twitter Contributer Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    What we lack is those really crisp nights to bring out the full range of autumn colours.
     
  4. davidg

    davidg Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    So its now "Autumn". Was 33 yesterday.

    Current 7 day forecast for Penrith reads:

    "35,33,34,33,34,35,37"

    ACCESS doesn't show any relief on the 10 day charts either, nor does Ext GF. If anything it looks like another heat wave at the end of Ext GFS which should see high 30's low 40's. Alas it looks like mid 30's for about the next 14 days. Please kill me.
     
  5. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm deciding on whether it would be better to just go back to Japan. The downside to that is that it's Sakura and whilst i'd get some skiing in, watching the snowpack melt off is just as depressing as the heat here in AUS.
     
  6. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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  7. bengarden

    bengarden One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Yes this heat is sucking. Looks to be mid 30s in Canberra for the next week! I can't remember when we've had such an unbroken run of days well above 30. 4-5 days in a heatwave sure, then down to even mid/high 20s but this relentless mid 30s is not what we're used to here. Add in the fact that no fronts are bringing any rain at all and it adds up to a depressing hot end to summer. We literally have not had any rain for a month since I got back from Japan on 2nd of Feb. Its now 3rd of March. I really hope things swing the opposite way and we have a proper autumn with some cool days in the mid teens as some relief before the snow machine gets going properly in the Snowy Mountains. It would just be more torture if we had a slow late start to the season like last year again after such a long summer.
     
  8. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bit building up out the back.....

     
  9. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snow machines were cranking hard early last year as May was cold and the Guthega dam water was nice and cold. They built an entire snow resort with machines last year - Zali was open the second weekend on the Friday. Whereas in 2014 they couldn't make snow properly until well into late June as the water was too warm. Then it snowed and snowed and we had an amazing July school holiday with empty slopes and a mountain of snow.

    So split the difference and we might have some surprise early snow falls, but snow making not happening until mid-late June.

    IMO - this heat is just the end of a big El Nino year - much of that heat is now radiating back up into space; and the SSTs are dropping slowly across the Pacific. Even the India Ocean is nothing like it was six months ago. The question is whether La Nina come roaring back as it usually does off a deep El Nino. The current highly negative SOI numbers are being completely disregarded by BOM as any indicator of ENSO conditions with all the focus on SSTs.

    The one big statistic working against the the so called 2 and 4 year rule and the Olympic rule is that the season immediately following a big El Nino has been poor in nearly every example one looks at in the Snowy Hydro records.

    Meanwhile, BOM is going for a wet late Autumn in the South East. They were spot on with early Summer being coolish and wet across the SE.

    It's always a complete unknown as to what the season will bring. I just take comfort in the stats that indicate - average is ok. good is great, and bad is crap - On which basis I say we have a 1:3 chance of having a crap season - but a 2:3 chance of having a non crap season. Which is way better than Glenn Stephens' glass half full approach to managing our economy riddled with Dutch Disease.
     
    #59 rocketboy, Mar 3, 2016
    Last edited: Mar 3, 2016
  10. Peli89

    Peli89 One of Us

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    There has been some nice dewy mornings down here on the MP. It's usually a few degrees cooler than Melbourne.. I can tell Autumn is coming - a lot of mornings have had shallow fogs through the paddocks. :thumbs:
     
  11. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Am over this
    lucky a month of cold weather is coming soon.
     
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  12. snowduck

    snowduck One of Us

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    Everybody stay calm, and wait for the equinox
     
  13. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    JESUS !!!!

    Federal Hwy

    [​IMG]
     
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  14. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    [​IMG]
     
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  15. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wow, she bombed.
    Warnings where out but thats getting toward serious.
    Yass , Gunning etc got belted.
     
  16. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    Autumn is cool. March is not
     
  17. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Pelted down in far South Canberra too. Cooled off nicely now
     
  18. bengarden

    bengarden One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Yes. Crazy rain just north of here. It was great to get some nice rain in Canberra that wasn't really forecast. I start losing it if it doesn't rain for a month......Will help keep the dust away with the week of mid 30s forecast. I always was told the summer was too short in Canberra to need a backyard pool and the winters too cold. This summer has made us seriously think about putting one in.
     
  19. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    So far ---- I don't like it, quite frankly!
     
  20. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes us south coasties aren't made for relentless high humidity at 25C - night after night. When is this cold weather meant to arrive. I can't see anything on the long range yet.
     
  21. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Melbourne revised top of 36C today. Wot.
     
  22. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    ehhh spew.

    Where is the autumn weather already, 4 days in and im still bloody waiting
     
  23. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I would be happy with just some weather, period. This kind of rubbish shit sucks. It's nothing, it's just waiting.
     
  24. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Pretty over those strong arvo seabreeze's around the bay.
    Ill be happy once they have pissed off.
     
  25. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    They really mean for fishing that you need to get up early, get it glassed out until about 2pm, then get your ass off the water before it chops up big time.
     
  26. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Can't see much of a break in this weather for a while.
    EC suggests more of the same right though to the following weekend. Perhaps a little troughy late next week.
    GFS at 300+h says a frontal system mid month, but otherwise much of the same.
     
  27. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Embrace the forecast..:eek::eek:..its great for Team Bears and their bush activities....we don't want those floods down in W.Kiewa though.....Team is not into extreme floods or bush fires cos they cause too much damage to the Access Tracks....

    we are waiting to see if any TFB's pop up in coming days ..they cause us grief too...:thumbs:
     
  28. GS

    GS Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I still like Autumn but a week of mid to high 30s for the Upper Yarra is going to stretch the love
     
  29. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    checkout BOM forecast for Wangaratta seven days of almost 40deg C.maxs and mins of around 20degC...

    CFA will be active u would expect and waiting for call outs...but light winds are the redeeming feature thro this period we hope...
     
  30. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Steve - Just a question. What time (on average) do you start on the rum/coke in the mornings?
     
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  31. cin

    cin Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not liking this heat and humidity either
    but for the first time in a long time we have had an almost clear run from demolition to roof on a reno we're doing at Bondi.
    About 5 weeks and only 1 rain day that managed to stop work.
    Roof tiler starts in just over a week and it looks like clear weather all the way.
     
  32. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    well did have an early morning one at Kittens the other night/day and it cleared up my asthma beautifully..

    with all our work in the West Kiewa the Team better keep plenty on hand for recovery sessions in the evening...
    its the drink you need when your moving those heavy logs around with the Bunnings Trolley!!!!

    but as cin posts its brilliant weather for real workers...not sure that one would want to do a fun run up Hannels Spur to Kosy though just right now!!:D
     
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  33. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I swear if this weather pattern keeps up even C.C will be into the spirits at breakfast..
    [​IMG]
     
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  34. gareth_oau

    gareth_oau Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    weather is absolutely spot on in Perth at the moment.

    Overnight low of 15, max of 27, damp lawns at sunrise and trees turning autumny
     
  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/heatwave/

    [​IMG]
    Heatwave Situation for Friday, Saturday, & Sunday (3 days starting 4/03/2016)
    Low intensity heatwave is forecast to contract to the north of Western Australia, reaching locally severe inland. Low intensity heatwave is expected to continue in South Australia, New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania, reaching severe near the NSW/VIC border.
    [​IMG]
    Heatwave Situation for Saturday, Sunday, & Monday (3 days starting 5/03/2016)
    Low intensity heatwave is expected to contract to the north coast and northern interior of WA. Heatwave is expected to intensify over the southeast, reaching severe over the north Victoria.

    [​IMG]
    Heatwave Situation for Sunday, Monday, & Tuesday (3 days starting 6/03/2016)
    Low intensity heatwave continues in the southeast of the country, reaching severe intensity in Victoria and adjoining border regions of New South Wales and South Australia. Low intensity heatwave is forecast to contract near the north coast of WA.
    [​IMG]
    Heatwave Situation for Monday, Tuesday, & Wednesday (3 days starting 7/03/2016)
    Heatwave conditions are likely to continue over southeast, reaching severe intensity in Victoria and adjoining border region of New South Wales. Heatwave has all but eased in Western Australia.
    [​IMG]

    Heatwave Situation for Tuesday, Wednesday, & Thursday (3 days starting 8/03/2016)
    Low to severe intensity heatwave conditions are likely to continue over southeast Australia.
     
  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Interesting temperature range in Melbourne. We have a weak seabreeze that is keeping it relatively nice near the bay. Mid to high 20s, yet northern suburbs are in mid 30s.
     
  37. gareth_oau

    gareth_oau Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    what do BOM classify or define a heatwave as?
     
  38. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Pretty typical mid January feel out there today.
    Yuck, so over it
     
  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/heatwave/about.shtml

    How do we know a heatwave is coming?

    Heatwaves are calculated using the forecast maximum and minimum temperatures over the next three days, comparing this to actual temperatures over the previous thirty days, and then comparing these same three days to the 'normal' temperatures expected for that particular location. Using this calculation takes into account people's ability to adapt to the heat. For example, the same high temperature will be felt differently by residents in Perth compared to those in Hobart, who are not used to the higher range of temperatures experienced in Perth.

    This means that in any one location, temperatures that meet the criteria for a heatwave at the end of summer will generally be hotter, than the temperatures that meet the criteria for a heatwave at the beginning of summer.
     
  40. gareth_oau

    gareth_oau Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    ah ok, so its "subjective" and area dependent.

    I note that Perth is expecting 36 by next wednesday but it wasnt on the chart
     
  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Pfft, 36 is not a heatwave in Perth! Luxury!
     
  42. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    Would love a night without sweat and mozzies here in Sydney, but the days filled with bikinis make up for it.
     
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  43. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    made it to 36.6C out here. Was hot when I went out for lunch.
     
  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Winds SW for anything up to the CBD, and from the north for anything above that.
     
  45. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Based on the strength of the seabreeze the last week I would suggest it will win for the majority of the suburbs again.
     
  46. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    A lot weaker today than it has been the past week though, usually starting to blow by now.
     
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  47. cold wombat

    cold wombat Twitter Contributer Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bloody nice in out in Perth if you're close enough to the coast to catch the breeze. Not so nice at all without it. Done both already today. I know which I prefer!
     
  48. Marty_McSly

    Marty_McSly Staying the **** at home. Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's not coming to us... he's going to it... off to Japow :tany:
     
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  49. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cells popping up on Melbourne metro radar.

    Just heard there's been thunder and rain in Balwyn
     
  50. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Left work early and went for a light trot along Elwood beach.
    Muggy, but there was some nice looking clouds around to the North. Heard a few rumbles in the distance also.