Mega Thread The agonisingly long autumn thread

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Untele-whippet, Mar 1, 2016.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  2. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Severe Weather Warning (WA)
    IDW28001

    Severe Weather Warning for damaging winds and abnormally high tides for people in the Central West, Lower West, South West, South Coastal, South East Coastal, Great Southern and Central Wheat Belt forecast districts
    Issued at 11:35 am WST on Friday 20 May 2016.

    For people in parts of WA southwest of a line Geraldton to Southern Cross to Norseman to Israelite Bay. This includes people in, near or between the following towns: Perth metropolitan area, Geraldton, Dalwallinu, Jurien Bay, York, Mandurah, Bunbury, Busselton, Margaret River, Bridgetown, Albany, Katanning, Narrogin, Southern Cross and Esperance.

    Weather Situation
    The first significant cold front of the year is expected to affect southwest WA during Saturday.

    The strong cold front is likely to cause WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS to 100 kilometres per hour that could result in DAMAGE TO HOMES AND PROPERTY. In isolated areas DANGEROUS GUSTS in excess of 125 kilometres per hour could cause SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE OR DESTRUCTION to homes and property.

    DAMAGING WINDS are expected to develop about the Southwest Capes late Friday evening, extending to reach Perth to Katanning to Albany by 6:00am Saturday and Jurien Bay to Merredin to Hopetoun by late morning.

    HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES may cause FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS particularly along the west coast during Saturday morning around the time of high tide.

    DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS which could cause some beach erosion are also likely.

    HEAVY RAINFALL will occur with the passage of the front with the heaviest falls expected southwest of a line Perth to Albany. Isolated thunderstorms and small hail are possible southwest of a line Perth to Albany, extending along the south coast to Esperance during Saturday afternoon and evening.

    People in the southwest of WA experience a front as windy as this about 5 times per year.
     
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  3. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Has Mondays front been on the roids again?
     
  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    This one was always peaking over WA, a pretty solid front. It's funny, WA seems to frequently get a big system end of May.
     
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  5. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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  6. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  7. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    It looks to be bringing some very cold air at it's core too, which is a good sign for when they start peaking a bit further east in a few weeks.

    I am tracking a theory about why they peak over WA in the early season. From what I can see, as the highs pass South Africa, they seem to run into the warm water in the southern Indian Ocean and stall/ slow in their journey east which then slingshots the low NE.

    If the timing is right, the high slingshots the low over the Eastern edge of the warm water and it gains a heap of energy as it heads to Perth.

    In years when the warm water is well west of WA, we see the lows slingshot well before the WA coast and they end up peaking north west of Perth and then we get the decaying low mixing with the residual tropical moisture and tracking across central WA.

    I ramble on a bit but basically, I am really liking the current setup for this time of year.

    The things I am watching are to see how far the cold air penetrates north over WA as an indicator of how the lows will behave once they start peaking further east and also keep an eye on the temps in the bight because if they drop too quickly, they will become a magnet for the Highs and will stall them as they pass. But if the warm fringe hugging the SA/Western Vic coast holds out until mid June and allows the polar rotation to establish a proper winter pattern and dominate, as it does in July/August then we may be in for a great Olympics. IMO
     
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  8. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    *4 day rule
     
  9. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    To get an idea of how water temps affect the profession of the highs, watch how they track across the country and how the core just stays onshore but hug the SA coast and then head SE across Vic.

    They are desperate to drop into the bight and stall as they do in most years but this year, the warm water is keeping them onshore.

    This is my fear. If the Bight cools then it is the only cold water at our latitude between Africa and NZ and will invite the highs to hang around way beyond their welcome.

    I guess the next step is to try and calculate the SST conversion rate in the bight to guage a predictive timeline for the cooling trend in the Bight.

    Any physics gurus out there?

    I won't be sober till Sunday so cheat notes very much welcome
     
  10. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

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    The satellite pic looks interesting
     
  11. melty68

    melty68 One of Us

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    that cold front is like a beautiful girl turning up at the pub when theres just ugly drunk blokes.
     
  12. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Family in perth and down south called to say its been an extreme night over there, reports of mini tornados going through, some of their neighbors lost parts of their roofs. Spoke to an uncle in preston beach and i could hear the roar of the wind and rain over the phone.

    Sounds intense.
     
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  13. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    You have to take those reports in context.

    As a general rule, Western Australian's are particularly soft and unaware of the weather, aside from heat and gale force southerly winds. Building standards are also very poor, especially with many of the large volume, bottom arse of the market builders, so it doesn't take much to knock a few roofs off.

    We had not a single decent frontal system last winter in WA, so the arrival of the first decent one in eighteen months blows a few people out of their comfortable complacency. With such boring weather, any kind of system gets some sensationalist attention.

    Yes we had some gusty winds from the NW swinging into the SW, some moderate rain squalls, strong downdrafts and a few bangs of thunder, but really the kind of weather that wouldn't raise an eyebrow in locales that regularly receive more variable weather.
     
  14. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    What bullshit.

    WA gets far more extreme weather than say Vic or SA. I'd say in par with NSW.
     
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  15. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    are current SSTAs really that big issue - the bight looks fairly benign at present. South central Indian Ocean still has some above average SSTs - but that is changing pretty quickly - just it is off SE Aust - that was all yellow a week ago but appears to be rolling over - and look at the cold water spike off South America. You can see the cold upwelling bursting to surface around 120W (south of Baja Peninsula) next ENSO is going to make for interesting reading on Tuesday.
     
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  16. Nidecker

    Nidecker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    God thats true, I windsurfed off Dunsborough once in a storm that they recorded 70knts at the lighthouse (I was using my 2.4 squ meter sail) and regarding building over there, much of the housing stock is dble brick isn't it?
     
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  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Just about everything is double brick.
     
  18. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    At 267 km/hr TC Vance was one of the strongest to hit Australia

    [​IMG]

    Down south doesn't get off lightly either. Gets very windy very often.
     
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  19. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Rocketboy, that's the million dollar question.

    Its the amount of above average that is interesting for me. A month ago, we were surrounded on 4 sides by a lot of warm water covering large areas.

    The bight is definitely on a cooling trend.

    It's all just theory and the only way I can test it is by real time observations to see how each year plays out in relation to the SST at the time.

    I basically get 4 months a year to test it so my obs are by no means a proven theory. I just try to give a new angle on an infinitely complex system to increase our overall knowledge bank.

    Its all trial and error which is what makes it so much fun. Every day is a learning experience.
     
  20. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I love this site because it has a few model gurus that understand models better than I have found so far.

    CC, Donz and Verm know the runs and the different models better than I will ever do.

    Falls Expat is the champion of long term trends.

    I don't want to get into a circle str... but I honestly love the knowledge this site has. Sorry for all those I missed. You all make this site.

    What I do is look for the grey areas. When the model's get it wrong. Or, when they get it right, why did they get it right?

    For a living, I'm paid to game unexpected scenarios and put a price on them. Financial and physical.

    For fun, I game weather.
     
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  21. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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  22. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Not much of a prediction really considering most seasons will fall into that range.
     
  23. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bookies theory. play the spread
     
  24. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Really what Gerg is saying after studying the latest available scientific data while using his considerable experience in such matters to make certain logical interpretations of said data , is that he doesnt really have much of a clue what will actually happen. So he offers up a ultra conservative prediction of most likely less than average snowdepth with a possibility of it slightly exceeding the known average. In this way he can protect his much vaunted image as a Nostradamus of snowdeptth predictors.

    Doesnt he know its an Olympic year or Lake Eyre has water flow ? What about the various signal birds ? Each of these is a proven predictor of good seasons and yet Gerg flies in the face of such conventional wisdom. Ther man must be a stark raving lunatic. No I will not listen to such a man.
     
  25. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    i am heartily sick of the knockers

    gerg puts all his inputs out there and most of us look forward to the outputs
    He doesn't claim to be perfect, indeed he points out the flaws and strives to refine. He displays his long term comparisons of predicted v achieved.
    I don't think he's ultra conservative at all. It's long term weather casting ffs
    He doesn't charge us for his insights, he shares them
    (Although I must admit it is a sig flaw to not include the Olympic factor in his inputs ;))

    Seems to me some fools chased of @janesweather by criticising her forecasts (was it last year, or the year before?), and her input is now absent from these boards as a result, and missed.

    Falls expat falls somewhat into this category too (global effin warming has a lot to answer for)

    Any real expert (or close to) is taken to task here, in my view unfairly and many understandably choose to go away or limit their contributions. Tall poppies and all that.

    we are all the lesser for it.

    Rant over

    (Kelpie, this ain't personal, I can see you were somewhat tongue in cheek - I just had to get this off my chest)
     
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  26. motty

    motty Hard Yards

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    I'll echo this. Unfortunately Australia's snow forecasts are more of an art than a science and hence opinions run rampant. Nobody here is being paid, they are volunteering their time to assist plebs like me make the right choice.

    I come here first before telling the missus she's looking after the kids for the weekend, and thankfully you guys give me plenty of notice.

    I've had my share of epic days thanks to you all
     
  27. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    No offence taken Karicta. I will give Gerg his dues , he gives an opinion based on his take of the science and puts his name to it. Fair play for that and guys like Gerg should be encouraged to continue offering their insights. However the use of an 88cm spread based on a figure just below the average shouldnt be encouraged , far too much scope to say later on " my prediction was right". 25 of the last 40 seasons fall into this range so again its a fair bet this coming season will fall into that range. I think its the same with the modern trend in all weather forecasting whereby they offer a % chance of rain so they can always claim not to have been wrong.To be honest a statistician without the slightest clue on the sciences used in weather prediction , especially long range prediction , could have done much the same. We should be encouraging these people to narrow the margin of error as much as is possible and if by doing so they are marginally out then we shouldnt be too concerned. They will learn more from being slightly off he mark with a narrow margin( maybe it will encourage refinement in the systems used) than if they use a safety net with a wide margin of error. The pursuit of excellence is what should be encouraged.

    It is discouraging that time honoured known accurate predictors arent used more , Olympic Year Theory for example certainly has proven remarkably accurate.
     
    #1277 Kelpieboy, May 22, 2016
    Last edited: May 22, 2016
  28. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Here is the 2016 pure statistical model - compare the 2 - they reach quite different conclusions.
    http://www.tafir.com.au/snowdepth.shtml

    "The prediction for 2016, based on the measurements from 1954 through 2015, is for a maximum snow depth of 215.2 cm, which is 18.2 cm more than the 62 year average of 197.0 cm, 41.9 cm above the 173.3 cm expected from the decreasing linear trend, and 64.4 cm above the actual 148.8 cm in 2015. We can expect the 2016 snow depth to be above the long term average and to be better than 2015."

    IMO - both serve a purpose for those who want a math's based forecast for no other reason than it's fun to speculate.
     
  29. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Far be it for me to question the purpose or even usefullness of of such speculation. I am sure there are quite a few around who have built up a decent reputation and quite possibly a following of devotees to their prognostications. It seems fairly obvious by the reactions that Gerg is one that has his share of admirers and good luck to him I say.

    My point is more based around the wide margin of error Gerg has produced in his latest findings. It is not designed to be an attack on Gerg or any other soul brave enough to have a crack at it. The margin of error in this years analysis by Gerg just smacks of having a punt each way. We should encourage people such as Gerg and the others likeminded to him to continue but we should also encourage them to narrow the margin of error when they announce the result of their indepth analysis. When you consider that his margin of error is roughly 45% of his peak snowdepth figure then surely any relativity in his findings dissipates somewhat.
     
  30. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think you misunderstand his prediction.

    It's 159cm.

    The error margin is indicative of how confident that number is. Nevertheless, the number is 159cm.
     
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  31. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    it's a forecast based on an amalgam of predicted imputs..each with their own margin of error. The more imputs you put in the mix the margin of error increases. Gerg produces a completely transparent and honest model. as @Karicta says the number is 159 and if you look at his performance over the last three years, I don't think you can attribute it solely to luck..
    FTR I reckon he'll be horribly wrong this year . :)
     
  32. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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  33. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    Another stupidly warm w/e here :(
     
  34. bengarden

    bengarden One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Getting closer to normal autumn temps coming up this week for Canberra though which is good. Tops of 14 and 13 towards end of week and even a negative temps morning. Hopefully thats the last of the 22 degree days this wkd just finished for here
     
  35. shauno

    shauno Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    This is the warmest ive ever experienced here in Canberra for this time of the year. Outside this evening had a feeling of a warmish spring evening.
     
  36. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Pretty much as warm as its been all day here in Melb. Summer like actually.
     
  37. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    In the mark-IV model, those seven parameter choices give a 2016 best-estimate peak snow depth of 159 cm. Not great, but not terrible by current standards. The 1-σ error is 44 cm as before, so the range 115 – 203 cm would be expected to include about two-thirds of likely outcomes, if the parameters were perfectly known (they’re not!).

    Straight from Gergs blurb. Say what you like but that looks like an 88cm range to me which would suggest he isnt all that confident with the number 159cm. Enough about this now , move on.
     
  38. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Agree. I moved from Perth to Melbourne about 9 years ago and the cold fronts we get here compared to Perth winters pale by comparison in terms of their ferocity. Wind is a major memory for me in all the winter cold fronts in Perth.
     
  39. Whiteman

    Whiteman A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I have been told that as Jane does the weather for Ch.7 and is contracted, they apparently stepped in and put a ban on her doing her own forecasts, that is why she does not post here. :)
     
  40. MarkV

    MarkV One of Us

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    It's unrealistic to expect the sigma value to be smaller than this. All these models work on probabilities but are dealing with a chaotic system. Forty four centimeters is only one half decent weather event,and one big r@#n event can take away that much snow. I greatly appreciate what the modelers do,but ultimately the vagaries of the weather will determine the result.
     
  41. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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  42. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Freeze level dropped sharply in last cpl of hours, now around 1800. Should see some white on cams soon.

    I note bom have snow down to 1400 in vic today....
     
  43. bengarden

    bengarden One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Enough of the summer like morning temps alright. 15 here in Canberra. Where's the sub zeros and frosts? Meanwhile winter has properly arrived in NZ with 75cm up at the Remarkables........Boom. Should be a good base to start there and Coronet/Cardrona once the snowmaking kicks in properly. I thought a slow start was on the cards over there? Perisher would be frothing hard and into marketing overdrive if we got even 15cm let alone over 50cm this week.
     
  44. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Do you want weather action or stationary highs which give you your nice cold still Canberra mornings?
     
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  45. bengarden

    bengarden One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Weather action of course.......Just saying it's a bit warm thats all. Perisher looks to be heading down towards end of the week though with snow forecast. It is the agonisingly long autumn thread though so as the SDS really kicks in isn't it appropriate for some bitching and moaning? ;)
     
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  46. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm always up for a whinge. :cheers:
     
  47. Nowada

    Nowada Addicted

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    Enough is enough. I'm an old pom and your SDS has you winging more than even I can take.
    Sure NZ should have much better conditions than OZ, look where it is and the size of their mountains, but it's not always the case.
    The season is still 2 weeks away from starting officially. There are positive signs that winter is on its way and this winter could be better snow wise than last year.
    Yes it has been warm, but this is Australia, what do you expect?
     
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  48. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    Joizus it's windy!
     
  49. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    we have had no snow so far.. except for a few flakes;)...so no decent dumps at all...weather on highplains on Saturday was" t shirt" weather.....so no action has taken place at all preceding june....and for that matter stuff all rain....except for a couple of remarkable incidents.:oops:...over the last few months..Team Bears don't even have antifreeze in the diesels radiator as yet!!!

    but we do feel things will happen come mid June....o_O
     
  50. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Above average rains for much of Vic so far in May.
    (although Gippsland and NE miss out)

    [​IMG]