Mega Thread The agonisingly long autumn thread

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Untele-whippet, Mar 1, 2016.

  1. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    This was as of 16 May:

    http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/tasmanian-dam-levels-bouncing-back/507411

    "Lake Margaret, about 10 kilometres north of Queenstown, has amassed about 700mm in the past six weeks, including 440mm in the past fortnight. The local dam was nine metres short of filling in March and is now within 1.5 metres of full capacity. With 75-to-150mm of rain likely in the coming seven days it would become the wettest May in 22 years and take the dam to the brink of spilling.

    Much larger dams, including Lake Gordon, are more needy for further rain. Among the largest in the state, Lake Gordon still has more than 40 metres to reach capacity, eight metres below the level of this time last year.

    In the relatively-dry-but-recently-wet east, dam levels have only risen gently. In January Hobart's dams were at their lowest level in more than five years and are now only slightly higher.

    This week a barrage of intense low pressure systems and cold fronts will deliver frequent bursts of rain, bringing over 100mm to parts of the west. This will bring the biggest autumn inflows in many years.

    Unfortunately for parts of the east, less than 10mm is all that parts of the east can expect. At 82% of capacity, Hobart's dams are still well below the 96% of this time last year and this week should only inch closer to that mark."
     
  2. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Might need the leggings to cycle into work tomorrow. Winter's here.
     
  3. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    heater on here
    first night
     
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  4. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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  5. Marty_McSly

    Marty_McSly Staying the **** at home. Ski Pass: Gold

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    Had to put a jumper on tonight.
     
  6. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    are these current temps more suitable for you @bengarden ? ;)
     
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  7. bengarden

    bengarden One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Hells yes. Definitely descending into winter.....
     
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  8. AJS

    AJS One of Us

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    Wore my big wool coat on the walk to dinner thinking I'd be hot before I arrived, NOPE, a welcome cold chill in the air in Syd eastern subs :woohoo:
     
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  9. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    The couple of big impoundments are still well down, and likely to stay that way running big stations, but many of the small and medium hydro dams are spilling or close to now, Lake King William has come up a hefty nine metres since start of May and Lake Burbury a more modest seven.

    Tassie has plenty of gaps between data points and a remarkably abrupt west to east declining rainfall gradient but Mt Read is closing in on 900mm for May to date.

    Midway Lake St Clair is up to 483mm for the month, Mt Wellington summit 119mm, while sunny St Helens has just crested an inch and been offshore nearly every day!!
     
  10. PMG

    PMG One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    -7 at Cooma and Glen Innes airports this a.m. That's more like it. 8th-9th June may be dates to keep an eye on...
     
    #1360 PMG, May 25, 2016
    Last edited: May 25, 2016
  11. AJS

    AJS One of Us

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    Perhaps the end of this agonisingly looooooooooong autumn is finally in sight, these guys at least gave SM a go last night.... LOL:clap:
    [​IMG]
     
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  12. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    First negative temps of the year at Dubbo this morning. Bare feet were cold on frosty lawn going to get wood from the shed.
     
  13. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, it will be interesting to see which/if resorts turn on the guns in earnest with some favourable conditions coming. The fear will be the (probably) slightly warmer and wetter systems still likely between now and opening.....
     
  14. Snowy Joey

    Snowy Joey One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    5c here in the dandenongs. Incoming weather very exciting!
     
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  15. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    Freezing in Sydney on my way to work at 5am this morning.

    Getting out of the shower in a morning is getting more and more difficult!
     
  16. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  17. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    T.:thumbs:Bears stopped at Carlsruhe this morning for chicko roll by wood stove ...and it was bloody cold too outside...
     
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  18. incogski

    incogski One of Us

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  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  20. Marquise de Kappy

    Marquise de Kappy One of Us

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    Really trying to understand as much of all this strange language as possible. I know you will laugh with this question but I am on a quest to learn.
    What are the numbers & cols representing on the right of the model. eg 464 to 600?[​IMG]
     
  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Thickness.

    [​IMG]

    You like to see a line like 540 over the alps to see snow at resort level in Australia.
    532 is better, 528 could produce snow to very low levels.

    https://learn.weatherstem.com/modules/learn/lessons/47/11.html
     
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  22. Marquise de Kappy

    Marquise de Kappy One of Us

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    Thats great. Thanks CC! Now I will understand a bit more when looking at those charts.
     
  23. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    I know the dates will be winter but can someone please post ec charts for june 2-3 time frame?
    yr.no seems to be liking it for NSW anyway.
     
  24. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm not seeing anything in the latest EC run. IM(uneducated)O
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  25. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I am seeing models that dont know what is going to happen in the slightest. Let's get over this complex system first.
     
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  26. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    ACCESS GFS is going for a follow up dump On Wednesday next week.:fishing:

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Liquid dump? :rolleyes:
     
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  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS shows plenty of moisture for next week. To warm of course.
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    I'm far from convinced about the progression though after this weekend. So I wouldn't get too excited - yet.
     
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  29. Warlock_01

    Warlock_01 One of Us

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    According to BOMs latest climate outlook for June to August, the SE is 80% chance of exceeding the minimum temperature. Do they count that in for the alpine regions? Are we in for warmer days or nights this winter?
     
  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  31. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    I've got my fingers crossed for next Sunday. I know you need to take the models with a grain of salt that far out, but it would set up things lovely for the QBW.
     
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  32. TDS

    TDS Hard Yards

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    Mountainwatch.com calling 56cm and 44cm for Hotham and Falls over the next 7 days. Hotham called to have a 40cm dump.

    Wonder how long that prediction will stay true for..
     
  33. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Lel
     
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  34. TDS

    TDS Hard Yards

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    Indeed
     
  35. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Not sure what they are smoking.
     
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  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    :whistle:
     
  37. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC says no.
    Spag ensembles says no.
    Axs G says no. But it does think the entire eastern seaboard is gonna get washed away.
    GFS says no.

    What a ridiculous forecast over an extended period when there's so much uncertainty. absurd.
     
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  38. woggybot

    woggybot One of Us

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    That's how the Kiwi's laugh....
     
  39. TDS

    TDS Hard Yards

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    I don't know, but i'll have some.

    Agreed, nothing else points towards this being an event, tomorrow 0.2cm will be forecast for the same day. Seems to very much be based on guesswork on mountain watch sometimes..
     
  40. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    There is snow in May at Mt Stirling , Yippee!.
     
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  41. Snowy Joey

    Snowy Joey One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking very wintery
     
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  42. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Chopps will be hiking that tomorrow???
     
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  43. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    nope. Crushing cans at Willy tomorrow. Will hike Stirling at some stage this season though.
     
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  44. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    16 years ago, this day ...
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
    #1395 Claude Cat, May 27, 2016
    Last edited: May 27, 2016
  46. woggybot

    woggybot One of Us

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    Beautiful....even after all those years, and I still remember the wind! Freezing it twas in Western Sydney :D

    Mumma Nature just showing off really :)
     
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  47. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    What happened then CC? You'll have to fogive me, i was only 16 and yet to have a weather interest
     
  48. cookieman

    cookieman One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    we were at DP at the time.
    blizzard for the whole 3days we were there.
    recall at least half a matre of snow if not more.
    had to drive home via omeo and had chains on the 2wd all the way to omeo.
     
  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    The famous 1m+ dump of May 2000. Setup the rest of the season perfectly.
     
    #1399 Claude Cat, May 27, 2016
    Last edited: May 27, 2016
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  50. Nidecker

    Nidecker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks OK for snow making the rest of the week according to yeahna

    Detailed long term forecast
    Date Time Forecast Temp.
    Sunday
    29/05/2016
    01:00–07:00 Partly cloudy. For the period: 01:00–07:00 -7° 0 mm
    07:00–13:00 Partly cloudy. For the period: 07:00–13:00 -8° 0 mm
    13:00–19:00 Partly cloudy. For the period: 13:00–19:00 -2° 0 mm
    19:00–01:00 Fair. For the period: 19:00–01:00 -7° 0 mm
    Monday
    30/05/2016
    01:00–07:00 Fair. For the period: 01:00–07:00 -8° 0 mm
    07:00–13:00 Fair. For the period: 07:00–13:00 -10° 0 mm
    13:00–19:00 Fair. For the period: 13:00–19:00 -1° 0 mm
    16:00–22:00 Clear sky. For the period: 16:00–22:00 -2° 0 mm
    Tuesday
    31/05/2016
    22:00–04:00 Clear sky. For the period: 22:00–04:00 -9° 0 mm
    04:00–10:00 Cloudy. For the period: 04:00–10:00 -9° 0 mm
    10:00–16:00 Partly cloudy. For the period: 10:00–16:00 -2° 0 mm
    16:00–22:00 Partly cloudy. For the period: 16:00–22:00 -3° 0 mm
    Wednesday
    1/06/2016
    22:00–04:00 Partly cloudy. For the period: 22:00–04:00 -6° 0 mm
    04:00–10:00 Cloudy. For the period: 04:00–10:00 -8° 0 mm
    10:00–16:00 Cloudy. For the period: 10:00–16:00 -2° 0 mm
    16:00–22:00 Fair. For the period: 16:00–22:00 -2° 0 mm
    Thursday
    2/06/2016
    22:00–04:00 Clear sky. For the period: 22:00–04:00 -6° 0 mm
    04:00–10:00 Clear sky. For the period: 04:00–10:00 -8° 0 mm
    10:00–16:00 Partly cloudy. For the period: 10:00–16:00 -1° 0 mm
    16:00–22:00 Partly cloudy. For the period: 16:00–22:00 -1° 0 mm
    Friday
    3/06/2016
    22:00–04:00 Partly cloudy. For the period: 22:00–04:00 -7° 0 mm
    04:00–10:00 Cloudy. For the period: 04:00–10:00 -7° 0 mm
    10:00–16:00 Cloudy. For the period: 10:00–16:00 -1° 0 mm
    16:00–22:00 Cloudy. For the period: 16:00–22:00 -1° 0 mm
    Saturday
    4/06/2016
    22:00–04:00 Cloudy. For the period: 22:00–04:00 -3° 0 mm
    04:00–10:00 Light snow showers. For the period: 04:00–10:00 -3° 0.7 mm
    10:00–16:00 Snow. For the period: 10:00–16:00 0° 1.1 mm
    16:00–22:00 Heavy snow. For the period: 16:00–22:00 0° 9.8 mm
    Sunday
    5/06/2016
    22:00–04:00 Snow showers. For the period: 22:00–04:00 0° 4.5 mm
    04:00–10:00 Light snow. For the period: 04:00–10:00 0° 0.5 mm
    10:00–16:00 Light snow. For the period: 10:00–16:00 0° 0.6 mm
    16:00–22:00 Snow. For the period: 16:00–22:00 -1° 2.6 mm
    Monday
    6/06/2016
    22:00–04:00 Heavy snow. For the period: 22:00–04:00 -3° 5.4 mm
    04:00–10:00 Snow. For the period: 04:00–10:00 -4° 3.7 mm
    10:00–16:00 Snow. For the period: 10:00–16:00 -3° 1.6 mm
    16:00–22:00 Cloudy. For the period: 16:00–22:00 -2° 0 mm