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Mega Thread The Autumn Alpine Ground Cooling Thread

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Mar 1, 2020.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Weather discussions regarding autumn in the Aus Alpine/Sub alpine including but not limited to the Snowy Mountains, Tasmanian Abels, Alpine National Park regions.

    We should see a cool change push through tonight. Should get the Autumn juices pumping.
     
  2. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    Since the awful heat and dry spell broke it has been lovely autumn weather in the Snowies
     
  3. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us

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    Been relatively pleasant in Sydney this last month's, definitely more comfortable then previous recent years. Keep it going
     
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  4. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    ECMWF SEAS 5 Monthly ( 7 Month Forecasts ) is due to update on Thurs.
     
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  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It clearly has no respect for weather calendars.
     
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  6. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I am seeing major rainfall event midweek (wednesday into thursday ) for southern NSW (west of the hills) of around 80mm at this stage although I would guess there will be some variation to the total considering where the moisture is coming from and how far away it is. Any thoughts ?
     
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  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    [​IMG]
     
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  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bigger again on EC's 00z run.
     
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  9. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Cansips not looking to flash its the wrong shade when it counts.
     
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  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Fruitful June, perhaps.

    Sounds like the US season, just gone - Great pre-season falls then a corker of a strong positive PV
     
  11. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I see about a 25% downgrade already .................... sigh ................here we go again .................. it will end up being 10 -15 mm by the time it gets here.
     
  12. robbo mcs

    robbo mcs One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  13. Xwing

    Xwing One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Few flakes to fall on the eighth. With eighty eight days after the eighth to the Friday opening of the weekend (because it always starts Friday), then the luck of 888 lines up nicely to caress the very tops with those wonders of white we seek. Twenty four days ago I made note of this potential fall for this day of eights in my page a day diary and so now I see a sneaky 'sleet' for the K on this day in the early AM via yr.no somewhat open to interpretation data...and then temperature descending to one degree and rain showers. Elders like precipitation potential for this time. I am keen. This is a prediction. It could be wrong...I admit so.
     
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  14. cornice11

    cornice11 One of Us

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    beautiful. calling @Gototakahashi
     
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  15. Val Desire

    Val Desire Hard Yards

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  16. Jacko4650

    Jacko4650 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Where? Northern Hemi or ours?
     
  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    So 8.88m Spencer’s creek peak total for you then?
     
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  18. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    Fizzer for Jindy North Shore so far, welcome rain but no big numbers. Hopefully a ramp up tonight and into tomorrow.
     
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  19. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    15mm so far in the main range shadow and still light and steady......That’s right on the forecasted lower limit :thumbs:...Great follow up rain conditions for early autumn post February rain!!!!

    Over 30 mm up the hill according to PV BOM......,

    And, operating under instructions from daughter and granddaughter .....:rolleyes:

     
  20. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Looks like some ground cooling around March 14. On the other hand a lingering heatwave over Northern WA at the same time and beyond...
     
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  21. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us

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    good to see the eyre getting a drink

     
  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not going to lie, Ext Long range or not, this one of the weirdest set-ups I've seen progged by GFS.
    June in March....
    Could do MEL-PER route in about 2 & 3/4 hours, with this synoptic set-up. Albeit with some nice bump over 90 mile beach.
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  23. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    That’s a weird place for a High isn’t it?
     
  24. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Was going to say "don't you mean Perth-Melb?" and then realised that's a high where the low usually is...
     
  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's a bizarre strength and positioning for March.
    Tropics resemble the doldrums - a complete vacancy of wind & precip.
    Extrapolar activity is outbreak-like. Something you might traditionally see in June.
     
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  26. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us

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    Has anyone else noticed that on Google maps if you zoom in on Hotham, Buller or DP it's all snow images now instead of summer sat images? Wish they had the entire range in white!
     
  27. dogski

    dogski One of Us

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    Well nature has given us everything else over the last 12mths,except a very cold and snowy winter
     
  28. Adaminaby Angler

    Adaminaby Angler Addicted

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    I've noticed that over the Oberon region on Google Maps, too. Since early 2019, in fact.
     
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  29. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Late Summer rains have continued into Autumn on the lee side of the mountains. The land is as green as it gets, great for our local farms and gardens as well as the mountains!!

    Its a top start to Autumn despite every known weed sprouting and flourishing.

    Forecast today was for 15 degrees and a bit of rain. 2mm so far and lightly raining again. Won’t get to the forecast maximum temp though.

    A few pics coming up the driveway.

    Areas of rock mixed with green. Normally a very barren and brown area. Tussock was fortunately sprayed before this last bit of rain.....



    Thredbo would generally be somewhere to the SW of the cloud bank.



    Just looking more to the South. It’s been sprayed as well but the pic shows what 6 weeks of intermittent rain (about120mm) can do!



    Not unusual to see this covered in occasional snow and regularly in heavy frost so the green is very welcome heading towards the colder months.
     
  30. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calmrational Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like our first serious chance for snow on the mainland in 2020.

    The last few EC runs have been showing a decent cut-off upper level low, moving up all the to the Alps.


    After a strong band of precipitation and rainfall over SE Aus on Friday afternoon into evening, we should expect the possibility for some snowfall (a dusting probably) on Saturday morning down to somewhere around ~1400-1800m, per the latest EC data.



    GFS not so much a fan, keeping the cold air down in far Southern Victoria and Tasmania:


    CMC is somewhere between the EC and GFS scenarios:


    Nonetheless, something to definitely watch.
     
  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Been watching this one.
    My gut says GFS is on the money here and it'll slide south and be a Tassie gain.
     
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  32. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calmrational Ski Pass: Gold

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    From the EC Seasonal forecast suite:

    JUNE:

    A trough develops in our region, helping snowfall. Along with colder early season temps, this points at a good ground-cooling and early season for Australian snowfall.

    JULY:
    Ridging to our south, forcing systems into a SW peak theoretically. May see systems slip or come through.

    AUGUST:

    The Alps are progged to be in the middle of the ridge. A strong -AAO regime is developing in the late season, which could make things pretty good for snowfall in the later months in the season.

    SEPTEMBER:

    Strong -AAO established, trough centred south of WA, but potential for systems to also come our way.

    Obviously the seasonal models aren’t to be taken as gospel, but we are starting to see some recurring themes, particularly with a good early season for Australia.
     
  33. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    With the current issues happening in other quarters ATM the only folk that will get to enjoy it will be the bearded ones.
     
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  34. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calmrational Ski Pass: Gold

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    Who knows, really. I don’t think I could dare predict what exactly would come from coronavirus, and it’s impact on the ski industry.
    Either way, I’ll still be here forecasting the weather.
     
  35. teleroo

    teleroo One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeh baby :) dat magic word

     
  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just to update, this weekends shortwave is dead in the water IMO.
    Won't see snow on the mainland this w/e (as suspected).
    Lacks any depth for Tas accumulations, so only a slight chance of snow above 1300m Friday night/Saturday AM on the apple isle, before things dry out quickly IMO
     
  37. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    ~50mm for Eastern VIC though which will be even more welcome for them as previously bushfire-affected areas start to re-grow.
     
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  38. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    It’s windy up here today. Blowing over 70 kms at PV and was hold onto your hat at Eyre Cafe.

    Some cloud drifting above the resort.....



    And a look up near Spencer’s...



    Let’s see what tomorrow brings! Some moisture won’t go astray.
     
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  39. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

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  40. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

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    Wow March snowdrift!
     
  41. teleroo

    teleroo One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM gunning for snow above 1900m on Saturday at Thredbo.

    Edit: i agree with POWs analysis, BOM being is little optimistic. GFS puts the 540 dam line through Tassie on Sat.
     
  42. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calmrational Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC indicates a chance of snow in the early hours of Saturday for the MR peaks. It depends on the timing and when the moisture moves away.
     
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  43. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just no one silly enough to witness the obsolete, remote chance of that IMO.

    Some textbook Lenticular forming leeward of the MR tonight.
    From Moonbah:
     
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  44. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Que Sera, Sera Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sooooo GREEN. What does Lenticular cloud mean?
     
  45. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Lens shaped.
    Translates to violent upper level winds, often a result of topo/orographic forces disturbing airmass.
     
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  46. DaveM

    DaveM One of Us

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    Used to see heaps when I lived in Hobart, always on the oookout for them
     
  47. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    It is cold today, a little damp as well.
     
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  48. Jacko4650

    Jacko4650 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Light dusting on the Island:

    [​IMG]
     
  49. teleroo

    teleroo One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not seeing any snow???
     
  50. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    First frosty morning of the new season.