Mega Thread The Autumn Alpine Ground Cooling Thread

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POW Hungry

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Weather discussions regarding autumn in the Aus Alpine/Sub alpine including but not limited to the Snowy Mountains, Tasmanian Abels, Alpine National Park regions.

We should see a cool change push through tonight. Should get the Autumn juices pumping.
458DD497-DF57-4F53-892F-B0B8FA061054.png
 

Kelpieboy

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I am seeing major rainfall event midweek (wednesday into thursday ) for southern NSW (west of the hills) of around 80mm at this stage although I would guess there will be some variation to the total considering where the moisture is coming from and how far away it is. Any thoughts ?
 
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Claude Cat

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I am seeing major rainfall event midweek (wednesday into thursday ) for southern NSW (west of the hills) of around 80mm at this stage although I would guess there will be some variation to the total considering where the moisture is coming from and how far away it is. Any thoughts ?
gfs.raincast.bsch.init-2020030100z.start-0.stop-192.vic..1.png
 
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Kelpieboy

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I am seeing major rainfall event midweek (wednesday into thursday ) for southern NSW (west of the hills) of around 80mm at this stage although I would guess there will be some variation to the total considering where the moisture is coming from and how far away it is. Any thoughts ?
I see about a 25% downgrade already .................... sigh ................here we go again .................. it will end up being 10 -15 mm by the time it gets here.
 

robbo mcs

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Xwing

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Few flakes to fall on the eighth. With eighty eight days after the eighth to the Friday opening of the weekend (because it always starts Friday), then the luck of 888 lines up nicely to caress the very tops with those wonders of white we seek. Twenty four days ago I made note of this potential fall for this day of eights in my page a day diary and so now I see a sneaky 'sleet' for the K on this day in the early AM via yr.no somewhat open to interpretation data...and then temperature descending to one degree and rain showers. Elders like precipitation potential for this time. I am keen. This is a prediction. It could be wrong...I admit so.
 

cornice11

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Few flakes to fall on the eighth. With eighty eight days after the eighth to the Friday opening of the weekend (because it always starts Friday), then the luck of 888 lines up nicely to caress the very tops with those wonders of white we seek. Twenty four days ago I made note of this potential fall for this day of eights in my page a day diary and so now I see a sneaky 'sleet' for the K on this day in the early AM via yr.no somewhat open to interpretation data...and then temperature descending to one degree and rain showers. Elders like precipitation potential for this time. I am keen. This is a prediction. It could be wrong...I admit so.
beautiful. calling @Gototakahashi
 

Jacko4650

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Few flakes to fall on the eighth. With eighty eight days after the eighth to the Friday opening of the weekend (because it always starts Friday), then the luck of 888 lines up nicely to caress the very tops with those wonders of white we seek. Twenty four days ago I made note of this potential fall for this day of eights in my page a day diary and so now I see a sneaky 'sleet' for the K on this day in the early AM via yr.no somewhat open to interpretation data...and then temperature descending to one degree and rain showers. Elders like precipitation potential for this time. I am keen. This is a prediction. It could be wrong...I admit so.
Where? Northern Hemi or ours?
 

dawooduck

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Oct 26, 2002
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Fizzer for Jindy North Shore so far, welcome rain but no big numbers. Hopefully a ramp up tonight and into tomorrow.
 
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SMSkier

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Fizzer for Jindy North Shore so far, welcome rain but no big numbers. Hopefully a ramp up tonight and into tomorrow.

15mm so far in the main range shadow and still light and steady......That’s right on the forecasted lower limit :thumbs:...Great follow up rain conditions for early autumn post February rain!!!!

Over 30 mm up the hill according to PV BOM......,

And, operating under instructions from daughter and granddaughter .....:rolleyes:

image.jpg
 

jonathanc

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Not going to lie, Ext Long range or not, this one of the weirdest set-ups I've seen progged by GFS.
June in March....
Could do MEL-PER route in about 2 & 3/4 hours, with this synoptic set-up. Albeit with some nice bump over 90 mile beach.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_aus_64.png


gfs_z500_vort_aus_65.png
Was going to say "don't you mean Perth-Melb?" and then realised that's a high where the low usually is...
 

Infinity Dawn

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Has anyone else noticed that on Google maps if you zoom in on Hotham, Buller or DP it's all snow images now instead of summer sat images? Wish they had the entire range in white!
 

SMSkier

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Late Summer rains have continued into Autumn on the lee side of the mountains. The land is as green as it gets, great for our local farms and gardens as well as the mountains!!

Its a top start to Autumn despite every known weed sprouting and flourishing.

Forecast today was for 15 degrees and a bit of rain. 2mm so far and lightly raining again. Won’t get to the forecast maximum temp though.

A few pics coming up the driveway.

Areas of rock mixed with green. Normally a very barren and brown area. Tussock was fortunately sprayed before this last bit of rain.....

2015B96C-5FE8-4283-9619-199701D0CD6D.jpeg


Thredbo would generally be somewhere to the SW of the cloud bank.

C652F3E1-1759-470F-948C-704353318A2F.jpeg


Just looking more to the South. It’s been sprayed as well but the pic shows what 6 weeks of intermittent rain (about120mm) can do!

49B5F799-7054-4435-8075-FB762E5D0D67.jpeg


Not unusual to see this covered in occasional snow and regularly in heavy frost so the green is very welcome heading towards the colder months.
 

Jellybeans

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Aug 24, 2015
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Looks like our first serious chance for snow on the mainland in 2020.

The last few EC runs have been showing a decent cut-off upper level low, moving up all the to the Alps.
7EE1EFA7-2631-4D57-BC8D-C832861A6823.png


After a strong band of precipitation and rainfall over SE Aus on Friday afternoon into evening, we should expect the possibility for some snowfall (a dusting probably) on Saturday morning down to somewhere around ~1400-1800m, per the latest EC data.

B75936B5-FB5D-42A8-9ED7-81ACF1425D0B.png


GFS not so much a fan, keeping the cold air down in far Southern Victoria and Tasmania:
742FF111-2353-4CEE-A2AB-C94445CE77E7.png


CMC is somewhere between the EC and GFS scenarios:
4EC6AAAA-4574-4237-98D3-05AFA87A2DB6.png


Nonetheless, something to definitely watch.
 

Jellybeans

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From the EC Seasonal forecast suite:

JUNE:
032B815A-725B-4843-8C58-03D8BA6198CA.png

A trough develops in our region, helping snowfall. Along with colder early season temps, this points at a good ground-cooling and early season for Australian snowfall.

JULY:
ED315BDC-1574-4FB1-B6A2-DA95E95E0198.png

Ridging to our south, forcing systems into a SW peak theoretically. May see systems slip or come through.

AUGUST:
0BEC3359-98AE-4F87-8B18-8632EF0C70A9.png

The Alps are progged to be in the middle of the ridge. A strong -AAO regime is developing in the late season, which could make things pretty good for snowfall in the later months in the season.

SEPTEMBER:
D21CB6BD-A05A-432E-A5E0-754DB1BEDD2A.png

Strong -AAO established, trough centred south of WA, but potential for systems to also come our way.

Obviously the seasonal models aren’t to be taken as gospel, but we are starting to see some recurring themes, particularly with a good early season for Australia.
 

Seafm

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From the EC Seasonal forecast suite:

JUNE:
032B815A-725B-4843-8C58-03D8BA6198CA.png

A trough develops in our region, helping snowfall. Along with colder early season temps, this points at a good ground-cooling and early season for Australian snowfall.

JULY:
ED315BDC-1574-4FB1-B6A2-DA95E95E0198.png

Ridging to our south, forcing systems into a SW peak theoretically. May see systems slip or come through.

AUGUST:
0BEC3359-98AE-4F87-8B18-8632EF0C70A9.png

The Alps are progged to be in the middle of the ridge. A strong -AAO regime is developing in the late season, which could make things pretty good for snowfall in the later months in the season.

SEPTEMBER:
D21CB6BD-A05A-432E-A5E0-754DB1BEDD2A.png

Strong -AAO established, trough centred south of WA, but potential for systems to also come our way.

Obviously the seasonal models aren’t to be taken as gospel, but we are starting to see some recurring themes, particularly with a good early season for Australia.
With the current issues happening in other quarters ATM the only folk that will get to enjoy it will be the bearded ones.
 
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Jellybeans

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With the current issues happening in other quarters ATM the only folk that will get to enjoy it will be the bearded ones.
Who knows, really. I don’t think I could dare predict what exactly would come from coronavirus, and it’s impact on the ski industry.
Either way, I’ll still be here forecasting the weather.
 

POW Hungry

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Been watching this one.
My gut says GFS is on the money here and it'll slide south and be a Tassie gain.
Just to update, this weekends shortwave is dead in the water IMO.
Won't see snow on the mainland this w/e (as suspected).
Lacks any depth for Tas accumulations, so only a slight chance of snow above 1300m Friday night/Saturday AM on the apple isle, before things dry out quickly IMO
 

Vermillion

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Nov 13, 2005
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Just to update, this weekends shortwave is dead in the water IMO.
Won't see snow on the mainland this w/e (as suspected).
Lacks any depth for Tas accumulations, so only a slight chance of snow above 1300m Friday night/Saturday AM on the apple isle, before things dry out quickly IMO

~50mm for Eastern VIC though which will be even more welcome for them as previously bushfire-affected areas start to re-grow.
 

SMSkier

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Oct 4, 2016
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It’s windy up here today. Blowing over 70 kms at PV and was hold onto your hat at Eyre Cafe.

Some cloud drifting above the resort.....

image.jpg


And a look up near Spencer’s...

6B572AE8-3103-4E12-8E96-6D08632E1DD8.jpeg


Let’s see what tomorrow brings! Some moisture won’t go astray.
 

Jellybeans

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Aug 24, 2015
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BOM gunning for snow above 1900m on Saturday at Thredbo.

Edit: i agree with POWs analysis, BOM being is little optimistic. GFS puts the 540 dam line through Tassie on Sat.
EC indicates a chance of snow in the early hours of Saturday for the MR peaks. It depends on the timing and when the moisture moves away.
 
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