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Mega Thread The Autumn Alpine Ground Cooling Thread

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Mar 1, 2020.

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  1. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    hopefully it's a 2014 snap freeze at the end of June - though the thaw did start at the end of July that year.
     
  2. rime noreason

    rime noreason One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Here in the southern Vic ranges there are plenty of indicators that winter is just around the corner.

    Autumn has peaked and is now waning



    White and pink Heath is in bloom.



    Frosty mornings follow nights that are so clear that it looks like you could just reach up and pluck The stars from the sky



    It’s the little things that count. Indicative of a cool temperatures and plenty of rain, we have more varieties of fungi than I’ve ever seen.
    .




    this one looks like it belongs on the Great Barrier Reef




    Cool and clear days with the low sun bathing the mountains in a soft golden light. Looking forward to even cooler temperatures, frozen water pipes, and snow again soon.




     
  3. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    Can you see further into space when its colder?
     
  4. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    What area are u in rime in southern vic?
     
  5. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    The Bureau of Meteorology will today release its 2020 Winter Outlook, with most of the country showing an increased likelihood of wetter than average conditions in the coming three months.

    could not find the release on line - so posting most of the email here...

    The Bureau's manager of long-range forecasting, Dr Andrew Watkins, said there were only a few areas across the country that weren't looking at a wetter than average winter.

    "Most areas of mainland Australia are showing a better than 70 per cent chance of having a wetter than average winter," Dr Watkins said.

    "The only exceptions are the coastal fringes of NSW and eastern Victoria, parts of Tasmania and areas of southwest WA where the outlook isn't pushing towards wetter or drier than average conditions.

    "Parts of northern Australia are also showing no strong push towards wetter than average conditions, but this is typically the dry season anyway."

    Dr Watkins said the outlook was being largely driven by warmer than average ocean temperatures off north west WA, as well as warm ocean temperatures in the western Pacific.

    "Ocean temperatures in the eastern Indian Ocean are currently warmer than normal, and our models are predicting they will warm further throughout the winter months.

    "When warm sea surface temperatures occur closer to Australia, weather patterns shift towards us too, favouring more cloud and rainfall across the country.

    "We last saw this happen in 2016, when a strong negative Indian Ocean Dipole formed to the west of Australia. This was the last time we saw tropical moisture from the northern Indian Ocean deliver good winter rainfall to large parts of Australia.

    "We aren't guaranteed the same results as 2016, but the warmer ocean temperatures surrounding the continent will push us in the direction of better than average rainfall.

    "As always, it's important people use the outlooks in conjunction with all of the Bureau's other tools to make decisions, including the seven-day forecast which will provide details on potential rainfall for the immediate days ahead."

    Daytime temperatures throughout the winter months are expected to be cooler than average for much of the southern half of the country, but warmer than average along the eastern seaboard and most of northern Australia.

    Overnight temperatures are likely to be warmer than average across the entire country.

    "When we look at the expected temperatures, they really fall in line with the expected rainfall conditions.

    "Areas with a higher chance of above average rainfall are also looking at increased chances of cooler than average days because they are more likely to have cloud cover and more evaporative cooling in the coming months.

    "Conversely, it means our nights are more likely to be warmer than average, because that cloud cover will prevent heat from escaping during the evenings."

    On Monday 1 June, the Bureau will release its state and national autumn summaries.

    Preliminary data shows much of northern and western Australia had a warmer than average autumn, but the season has been interspersed with periods of very cold weather.

    Most of south eastern Australia has had a cooler than average autumn period.

    Autumn rainfall is likely to have been above average through most of the south east, and parts of central Australia and northern WA.

    Conditions have been drier than average through most of southeast Queensland and parts of northeast NSW.

    Large parts of WA were drier than average for autumn but recent and expected rainfall in the coming days could push some areas of WA closer to average rainfall for the period.


    FAST FACTS

    NATIONAL

    Winter outlook
    Rainfall is likely to be above average for most of the country, however coastal areas of NSW and eastern Victoria, along with parts of Tasmania and southwest WA show no strong push to wetter or drier than average conditions. Some areas of northern Australia are also showing no strong push to wetter conditions; however this is typically the dry season in the north of the country.
    Day time temperatures are likely to be cooler than average for much of the southern half of the country while they will be warmer than average in the north of the country and along the eastern seaboard.
    Overnight temperatures are likely to be warmer than average across the country.
    Preliminary autumn summary
    Rainfall patterns were geographically variable during autumn, but the country as a whole is currently tracking drier than average. Parts of the south east are currently tracking wetter than average.
    Autumn has been warmer than average in the north and west of the country despite periods of cold weather, while it has been cooler than average in the mainland southeast.
    NSW/ACT

    Winter Outlook
    High chance of above average rainfall for inland areas of the state and the ACT, however the coastal fringe of the NSW is showing no strong push towards wetter or drier than average conditions.
    Cooler than average days are more likely for western parts of the state, and warmer than average in the east, particularly near the coast.
    Overnight temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for the entire state and the ACT.
    Preliminary autumn summary?
    Daytime temperatures have been very much below average except for the coastal strip.
    Overnight temperatures have been closer to average for most of the state.
    Rainfall has been above average across most of the state, particularly inland areas.
    VICTORIA

    Winter outlook
    Rainfall is likely to be above average for most of the state, but there is no strong push towards wetter or drier than average conditions in East Gippsland.
    Days are likely to be cooler than average in western parts of the state, and warmer than average in the east
    Overnight temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for the entire state.
    Preliminary autumn summary
    It has been wetter than average for most of Victoria, particularly in the north of state.
    The state as a whole is on track for its wettest autumn since 1989.
    Days were cooler than average for most of the State away from East Gippsland and parts of the coast, and much cooler than average in some areas of the north.
    Overnight temperatures were close to average, but with many cool nights in March and May.
     
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  6. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not really see further, there's just less moisture in the way to muddy what your lens & camera see. It's a fine balance between being too cold that small ice crystals form on your lens. 1-2c is optimal in my experience
     
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  7. rime noreason

    rime noreason One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hard to say, but we do get a bit sick and tired of those little green men pulling faces at us from Mars;)

    I really don’t know either way, @Ret-ro. The difference I think though, is that away from city lights, you see so many more stars, and they look so much brighter, therefore bigger and closer. With clear cloudless skies and little or no moon, it’s really spectacular. That photos is my little instant pocket camera set on auto And placed on a tree stump, aiming in the general vicinity of the Milky Way. It’s the camera I use for everything. I don’t have any fancy long exposure type equipment

    @doogasnow, ranges sort of between Eildon and Woods Point. Phone reception is very intermittent which is why My posts /replies are generally few and far between.

    Our Sarah Lee mountains are looking gorgeous at this time of year, that is, layer upon layer upon layer.


    Quite a few Grandfather Gumtrees that have seen more than a few winters




    It’s isolated and peaceful but we still get quite a few visitors. Another indicator that winter is close is they’re doing the Covid toilet paper and hand sanitising style of hoarding, except with pumpkin, carrots and sweet potato, stocking up on winter provisions




    Today’s visitor though was our guest of honour


     
  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC has been toying with this one on and off. GFS has certainly gone there too.

    7th of June With a cold outbreak
     
  9. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    sensational pics.
    thx for sharing :thumbs:
     
  10. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cool sat loop of last weeks ECL fwiw.
     
  11. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Looks good on the EC Total for next 10 days

     
  12. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like about 30cm from that potential 7th June system
     
  13. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    EC ens thinking is it will be cooler over the south east in the second week. But it will also be dryer over the next two weeks.













    [​IMG]
     
    #463 stormkite2000, May 30, 2020
    Last edited: May 30, 2020
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  14. Adaminaby Angler

    Adaminaby Angler One of Us

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    Lovely images, but it's Windy.com…they even have snow for Rosewood (500 m)! :whistle:

    I'd wager half the amounts, if that. Could fall down to Batlow level, at the lowest.
     
  15. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    Not there on GFS :( but to be fair who listens to GFS this far out... besides Frog Man

     
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  16. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not looking that exciting for snow making in NSW this week. Would have been a carpet opening weekend at best.
     
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  17. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not looking great for major snow-producing systems going forward:


    Maybe the 7th but the LWT doesn’t align, looks like a clipper.
    Second half of the month looking the next decent chance then, just as well the resorts are opening late.
     
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