Mega Thread The Autumn Alpine Ground Cooling Thread

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Mar 1, 2020.

  1. Jacko4650

    Jacko4650 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Just my mistake in copying the photo (which uses the link) rather than saving the photo and then uploading it. My bad. It was there!
     
  2. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Same at Moonbah where the temps dipped just below zero. Melted off quick !

    With PV dipping to a nice minus 5.5.

    Plenty of mild weather still ahead I guess but Autumn definitely has arrived.
     
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  3. Adaminaby Angler

    Adaminaby Angler One of Us

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    –6.0° C @ 7:21 AM, actually.
     
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  4. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    And another absolutely cracking day unfolds, lake of glass, still cool air.
     
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  5. Gimp

    Gimp One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hore frost this morning
     
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  6. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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  7. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Autumn in the mountains...... gotta love it when it’s like this. 20 degrees, no breeze, birds chirping away.... Cold beer and looking out over the hills. Definitely anti stress mode:thumbs:. Had the fireplace on a few days back.....the variability this time of year is tops.

    Jillamatong to left of pic and SW generally towards Vic (over the hills and trees) on the right.

     
  8. Peli89

    Peli89 One of Us

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    It was a hot night here in Adelaides south.... Minimum of 28C just after 10pm.
    Bring on the cooler nights.
     
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  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  10. rime noreason

    rime noreason One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Enjoying a couple of superb days at Mt Buller where the wildflowers enjoyed the views as much as we did.

    Crisp mornings with trees in Merrijig just beginning to show their Autumn colours, followed by warm days of blue skies and scattered lenticular clouds that were photobombed by a Brown Falcon. I posted a few more photos in the Buller report thread.

     
  11. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Que Sera, Sera Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just so much glory!
     
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  12. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Maybe something around the 2nd-5th April, but looks a bit more favourable for the SW, compared to our side of the continent.

    EPS:


    GEFS:
     
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  13. Gimp

    Gimp One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Windy but warm this morning
     
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  14. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Windy as f.....here now at Moonbah. It’s blowing stuff everywhere.

    Similar down at the lake. Raised dust and plenty of chop across the lake.

    Up the mountain it was not as strong an hour back but may have picked up since. Nice mild day though and relatively clear apart from some high cloud out over part of the range.



     
  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/rainfall/median/seasonal/0
    Eastern IO region is under influence of warming SSTs.
    Should see some nice anomalies in the West of our continent, over the next 2-3 months.


    Nice Rossby Wave forming over the next week, through Southern IO.
    Sunday sees a big polar low push through south of WA - all south of Aus though.
    [​IMG]
     
  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC long range sharing the stoke, next week. Seems to come on go on ensembles, yet.
    [​IMG]
     
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  17. teleroo

    teleroo still looking for Thredbo in the Park Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS liking snow potential for Tassie west coast 04 April, but a bit thin on moisture for the central highlands perhaps.
    Edit: bit thin on moisture during the cold phase for snow.
    If this forecast eventuated, I'd put it at snow to 1000 masl for Tassie.

     
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  18. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    CMC is liking it a lot this morning:


    EPS is certainly giving its approval for the time being.


    It’s a question of whether it slips south to Tassie, or whether it can make the mainland.

    EC/EPS models it peaking over WA/SA, pushing south, and then pushing back north a bit just west of TAS, making it to the Alps. It’s about watching that progression.

    Some birthday snow is always appreciated.
     
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  19. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Came across some hope with regard to effect of healing ozone hole on our southern jet, amongst the doom and gloom of fires, heat, drought and pandemics. Can't remember the source though so treat with caution, I think I read it on science alert or discovery websites.

    As the ozone hole repairs, a study has found that it has paused the southward migration of the southern jet since about 2000, with the effect of ozone hole repair pulling it back north to its pre ozone hole position being roughly counterbalanced by global warmings southern push on the jet. Some suggestion that in the the next couple of decades the variation in southern jet position will be better explained by the repair of the ozone hole ie it might even on average push a little further than recent decades. The same same around climate change still applies, eventually it will make the effect of everything else nothing more than statistical noise and as such it will eventually drive the jet back south again. The best guess in the article was around the middle of this century climate change will be right back in control of the jets position.

    With evidence of climate change leading to increased water vapour juicing up precipitation bearing systems, what chance we still have a bunch of genuinely good, even big snow years to come against the global trend.
     
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  20. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think that was to do with the banning of certain gases and ozone depleting products in the 80’s.. Like BCF for example.

    The flip side was that China (and others), have used other products that are impacting the same ozone layer.....
     
  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It was written about here, but the source has been published on a few science websites of late.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environ...ozone-help-reverse-southern-jet-stream-damage
     
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  23. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bromochlorodifluoromethane (BCF) was a firefighting agent related to halons (testing my memory and spelling here from my firefighting career). One of the Halon/ Freon group that was banned in the late 80’s and was certainly done by the early 90’s....
     
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  24. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    No ground cooling this afternoon. Nice and mild ahead of the forecasted rain tomorrow evening..........


     
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  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I am certainly done by the time I work out how to pronounce it.
     
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  26. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Didj Mick observed a nice frost this morning, however:
     
  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC holding it's line for a reasonable Tassie fall (above 1100m), with a chance of flurries up high on the MR.
    Nice set-up for April.
     
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  28. teleroo

    teleroo still looking for Thredbo in the Park Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yup GFS similarly been good for a few runs now, 540 dam nudging the mainland.

     
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  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC continuing to look promising for a cold shot through the South East.
    Solid upgrade on the Deterministic model. Bullish to say the least.

    GFS still looks only semi-interested.
    [​IMG]
     
  30. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah nice.
     
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  31. teleroo

    teleroo still looking for Thredbo in the Park Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS is recirculating some warm air around Tassie unfortunately on the latest few runs.
     
  32. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  33. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    There is some Warm Advection on EC also.
     
  34. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    As you’d probably expect in this part of the year. Pattern hasn’t stabilised by a long shot yet.
     
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  35. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Look how decent CMC looks:


    EC/CMC are onboard, I’m interested.
    The trend of the past few runs is positive.
     
  36. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Meantime.... rain has kicked off in the mountains. Raining at Moonbah and PV has received a tad over 8mm in the last hour. Very welcome :thumbs:
     
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  37. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  38. Gototakahashi

    Gototakahashi Hard Yards

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    You watch - This will be one of the best seasons ever.

    And we will all miss it.
     
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  39. rime noreason

    rime noreason One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thank you @Billy_Buttons

    Diligently practicing social distance, last week it was views from Buller to Mt Terrible.

    This week it’s views to Buller from Mt Terrible. Calm and stable, warm and sunny through the alpine areas over the last few days, a little light rain yesterday.





    Fine dining with a view



    There were little highlights of colour



    We’d have had the views all to ourselves if we hadn’t had to share it with this mountain grasshopper.




    Sadly due to Covid-19, this may be the closest we get to Mt Buller, and the closest thing we see resembling snowflakes this winter season





    The sunset wasn’t offering as much colour over the Alps as it otherwise would have, as the sun and sky was largely obscured by thick smoke. That thick line of dirty pink haze from above Buller and to the left is all smoke. It extended left of that photo for hundreds of kilometres.The last photo of the red sun sinking behind the mountain shows the thick layer of haze above the horizon.


     
  40. dogski

    dogski One of Us

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  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    At a guess, aviation (limited airport alternatives), mining ops, wheabelt/agriculture.
    Probably in that order too.
     
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  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  43. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  44. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    My Gaydar never really worked well, hopefully this one is more reliable. Sorry. Couldn't resistLOL
     
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  45. Nidecker

    Nidecker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Or there are really no observations between SW WA and S Africa, do they contribute in a meaningful way to E Coast forecasting? - just speculating don't know much about weather. :)
     
  46. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    The ones on the Wheatbelt are owned fully by the Government of WA for agricultural purposes. So not really for the East Coast.
    http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/radar/about/wheatbelt_project.shtml
     
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  47. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    15th to 19th April looks like a potential period for coldfronts and snowfall:
     
  48. Gototakahashi

    Gototakahashi Hard Yards

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    Good evening folks,

    Tune in tomorrow on this forum for my outlook of the 2020 season and what we can expect in terms of snowfall and depths. It is a positive one!

    Goto
     
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  49. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    5m year, all records broken. No skiing until late August.. and that depends.
     
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  50. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    I guess we will see you in October then.