Mega Thread The Autumn Alpine Ground Cooling Thread

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Nidecker

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Alpine the dark side of snowboarding
Hows the temp rise at Perisher 4am -> 8am

upload_2021-5-16_8-36-15.png
 
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teckel

"I'm not a cat"
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Buller seems to have done ok. With the favorable snowmaking conditions to last a week I suspect they will try and get Bourke st skiable quickly, just a guess!
buller8 (2).jpg
I had a call this morning from someone wanting to know if Buller was open. (Don't know why they phoned me, but they did) Yes I said, but no lifts will be running. What? How come? etc. I want to learn to ski. ROFL
 

rocketboy

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Sep 9, 2010
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EC potential at 240hrs

yer big change in 24 hrs. if white and not overly clear doesn't matter if the back end is a bit 2020 when it moves off shore - but yer anything can happen.

Just need the coming MJO to collide with some polar expresses and could be a stunning schoolies yet. As long as the resorts are fully open - school holidays aren't that bad on the hill - nightmare in town - but often very pleasent away from ski school areas if all lifts are running.

Guns ran to nearly 10am today at PV. Probably similar times elsewhere. Top of V8 was firm and turnable - bottom was mostly dangerous until you got to the carpet slope and that was firm and fast all the way to bridge. TD2.
 

Mister Tee on XC Skis

Not your average unconventional eccentric.
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LM are saying 15cm but that's a conservative estimate.
I XC skied LM today. I 'd say 15 cm at The Triangle is about right. It was dry, fresh and complete cover. I did not break through with my skis or poles until I crashed on Royston return run.
OUCH.
 

Mister Tee on XC Skis

Not your average unconventional eccentric.
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Melbourne, Lockdown-i-stan .
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My friend still wants to hike up Hannel's spur and over the Main Range next week .
I told him he is a mental case.
The time to XC ski is NOW.
Here are some pictures from the snow that fell yesterday 15.5.21 at Lake Mtn..
I got up super early and XC skied it from 7.15am( Dawn !) to 11 am today: Sunday 16.5.21.
It was actually surprisingly good, cold , dry and fresh . I could have left the rock hoppers in the car and skied on my good BC XC skis for ungroomed snow.
I got fresh tracks. I saw no signs of any other skiers out there.
:)
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snowgum

A Local
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Lake Mtn. . May 16 th 2021. Photos by Mr. Tee .
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Impressive effort Mr T! Good pics and a reasonably good cover - I reckon I’ve skied on less at the Lake!

That sunny spot on the hill on Woolybutt is a killer though - faces due north and really cops the sun. Snow thins fast there on sunny days!

Mind you, post the 09’ fires, everything cops more sun. Give it 20-30 year things might recover?
 

snowgum

A Local
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Or might be Panorama? Is a few hundred m past the first lookout. And just before the saddle. (Brain fog! Must go back!)

Back on topic proper (reminiscence over?)
That’s a good autumn for you (others T?) two or three skis in April/May?
That beats my keenest years in uni?

I’m calling 2021’ a ‘good autumn’ - yes it means zippity for winter but beats dry brown grass and the drought of 2006’ & 2020’
 

Jasper Schwarz

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Jun 18, 2017
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Big upgrade for the modelled polar system impacting SW WA.
Still some divergence between EC & GFS on the structure of this system but the signal is there on all major models, so it's hard to ignore, even at >200 hours IMO.
ecmwf_z500_mslp_aus_9.png
Learning as I go, but appears to fall short of the mountains?? Like there is plenty of cold air it would appear??
Is this right?
And in terms of snow, what does it tend to mean if ti falls short

*^ Obsviously, long way to go yet. More interested in accumulating knowledge rather than the forecast itself
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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May 28, 2000
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Learning as I go, but appears to fall short of the mountains?? Like there is plenty of cold air it would appear??
Is this right?
And in terms of snow, what does it tend to mean if ti falls short

*^ Obsviously, long way to go yet. More interested in accumulating knowledge rather than the forecast itself
Yep, undesirable early peaker, is not good as I point out here:
https://www.ski.com.au/xf/threads/the-autumn-alpine-ground-cooling-thread.87090/page-28#post-4674921
And here:
https://www.ski.com.au/xf/threads/the-autumn-alpine-ground-cooling-thread.87090/page-28#post-4674877
 

warrie

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Jun 15, 2008
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Learning as I go, but appears to fall short of the mountains?? Like there is plenty of cold air it would appear??
Is this right?
And in terms of snow, what does it tend to mean if ti falls short

*^ Obsviously, long way to go yet. More interested in accumulating knowledge rather than the forecast itself
In short, systems that peak over WA die by the time they reach any east Oz Alps.
 

snowgum

A Local
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May 4, 1999
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?
It’s going south, like most SW WA peakers do.

Yes there is time for it to change, but I’d be more interested in what comes next.

Further to ‘early peakers’: I find it interesting that it’s not uncommon for an attractive system with seemingly heaps of white potential, to lose intensity, as a small weak high forms over central/north interior NSW as the front/system approaches the SE mainland.

It’s uncanny, how often this stymies a promising front (complex)! I’m not suggesting its always related to early-peakers, perhaps sometimes?
 

Mister Tee on XC Skis

Not your average unconventional eccentric.
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Jul 29, 2015
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Melbourne, Lockdown-i-stan .
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Further to ‘early peakers’: I find it interesting that it’s not uncommon for an attractive system with seemingly heaps of white potential, to lose intensity, as a small weak high forms over central/north interior NSW as the front/system approaches the SE mainland.

It’s uncanny, how often this stymies a promising front (complex)! I’m not suggesting its always related to early-peakers, perhaps sometimes?
More snow please. When is my next ski day?
 

kiter

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Sep 21, 2002
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Newcastle
access has this showing up on today’s run . A long way out and no 540 line in it
. Any thoughts ??what is ec thinking ??
Apologies for lack of charts and possibly in the wrong thread , please feel free to amend and relocate
 
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