Mega Thread The Autumn Alpine Ground Cooling Thread

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POW_hungry

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April sounds like it's gonna be fun for places like Tas.
No wonder the ensembles like more polar action middle of the month.
aao.sprd2.gif
 

Gototakahashi

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Sep 26, 2017
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Sorry all - I’ve been busy this weekend in my work at the bureau.

This season is going to the interesting. For the of July and August, the AAO is going to be negative.
The consensus from climate models is that moderate La Nina conditions will persist for much of the Southern Hemisphere snow season. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is picked to enter a negative phase sometime during late winter or spring; precisely the time when it tends to have the most influence on Aussie Snow. As most of you will not understand this terminology, I will explain. This combination is very good! We had this combination in record years like 1981 and the “super three” years of the 90s (1990,1991,1992). The season will start of steadily, albeit nothing like 2000. However, July and August could be record breaking. I predict the Spencer’s creek depth exceeding 3 metres in August. Constant high pressure should return by mid spring as there is evidence that El Niño could return in late October.

[MODERATER NOTE: IMO]

Count the days!

Goto
 
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Seafm

Too far from the snow
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Sorry all - I’ve been busy this weekend in my work at the bureau.

This season is going to the interesting. For the of July and August, the AAO is going to be negative.
The consensus from climate models is that moderate La Nina conditions will persist for much of the Southern Hemisphere snow season. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is picked to enter a negative phase sometime during late winter or spring; precisely the time when it tends to have the most influence on Aussie Snow. As most of you will not understand this terminology, I will explain. This combination is very good! We had this combination in record years like 1981 and the “super three” years of the 90s (1990,1991,1992). The season will start of steadily, albeit nothing like 2000. However, July and August could be record breaking. I predict the Spencer’s creek depth exceeding 3 metres in August. Constant high pressure should return by mid spring as there is evidence that El Niño could return in late October.

Count the days!

Goto
I hope you're just making this up as nobody will allowed to get out and enjoy it.
 

Claude Cat

On my bike
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Sorry all - I’ve been busy this weekend in my work at the bureau.

This season is going to the interesting. For the of July and August, the AAO is going to be negative.
The consensus from climate models is that moderate La Nina conditions will persist for much of the Southern Hemisphere snow season. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is picked to enter a negative phase sometime during late winter or spring; precisely the time when it tends to have the most influence on Aussie Snow. As most of you will not understand this terminology, I will explain. This combination is very good! We had this combination in record years like 1981 and the “super three” years of the 90s (1990,1991,1992). The season will start of steadily, albeit nothing like 2000. However, July and August could be record breaking. I predict the Spencer’s creek depth exceeding 3 metres in August. Constant high pressure should return by mid spring as there is evidence that El Niño could return in late October.

[MODERATER NOTE: IMO]

Count the days!

Goto


Of course it is an Olympic year. Well, it was.
 

Gototakahashi

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Sep 26, 2017
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I have some good news despite all the doom and gloom around today.
My good mate ‘The Frog’ has announced that he will be resuming his daily forecasts from the 1st of May. ‘The Frog’ (I know him as Pete) is a very experienced forecaster and a lot of you here will find his information useful and learn from him. Let’s look upwards in this dim world of the present!
 

Seafm

Too far from the snow
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Jun 5, 2014
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I have some good news despite all the doom and gloom around today.
My good mate ‘The Frog’ has announced that he will be resuming his daily forecasts from the 1st of May. ‘The Frog’ (I know him as Pete) is a very experienced forecaster and a lot of you here will find his information useful and learn from him. Let’s look upwards in this dim world of the present!
Who needs Frog? We have @Donzah @Kletterer @Claude Cat @POW_hungry have I missed anyone?
 

trappers

Safety not guaranteed
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www.owithalinethroughit.com
I have some good news despite all the doom and gloom around today.
My good mate ‘The Frog’ has announced that he will be resuming his daily forecasts from the 1st of May. ‘The Frog’ (I know him as Pete) is a very experienced forecaster and a lot of you here will find his information useful and learn from him. Let’s look upwards in this dim world of the present!
Never heard of him.
 

Doonks

Let's cook!
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Jul 17, 2000
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I have some good news despite all the doom and gloom around today.
My good mate ‘The Frog’ has announced that he will be resuming his daily forecasts from the 1st of May. ‘The Frog’ (I know him as Pete) is a very experienced forecaster and a lot of you here will find his information useful and learn from him. Let’s look upwards in this dim world of the present!
Frog was on these forums from about 1998/99 onwards.
https://www.ski.com.au/xf/members/the-frog.531/

There's still a big bunch of people here who know him. Eventually he started his own site and forums for forecasting. How is it going over there?
 

rocketboy

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Sep 9, 2010
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Does neg IOD + La Nina = 3m ?

Chance of negative Indian Ocean Dipole increases
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) both remain neutral. However, despite neutral conditions being favoured for the coming months, some models suggest ocean temperature patterns in the tropical Pacific may become La Niña-like during winter or spring. Similarly, models suggest Indian Ocean temperature patterns could become negative IOD-like.

Atmospheric and oceanic indicators of ENSO, including the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trade winds, cloudiness near the Date Line, and sea surface and sub-surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean remain consistent with a neutral ENSO state.

Most of the eight climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that ENSO is likely to stay neutral through the southern hemisphere winter. However, three models reach or exceed La Niña levels in winter or spring. It should be noted that ENSO predictions made during autumn tend to have lower accuracy than predictions made at other times of the year. This means that current ENSO forecasts beyond May should be used with some caution.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is also currently neutral. All six international climate models surveyed suggest negative IOD conditions could develop from the middle of the southern hemisphere winter. However, individual models all indicate a number of possibilities in the neutral to negative IOD range. Furthermore, the accuracy of IOD forecasts is low at this time of the year, with forecast accuracy improving from late autumn. A negative IOD typically brings above average winter–spring rainfall to southern Australia.

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is currently neutral and is forecast to remain neutral for the coming three weeks. SAM has little influence upon Australian rainfall in autumn.
 

POW_hungry

Old n' Crusty
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BoM: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
Chance of negative Indian Ocean Dipole increases
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) both remain neutral. However, despite neutral conditions being favoured for the coming months, some models suggest ocean temperature patterns in the tropical Pacific may become La Niña-like during winter or spring. Similarly, models suggest Indian Ocean temperature patterns could become negative IOD-like.
 

Gototakahashi

Addicted
Sep 26, 2017
115
174
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Does neg IOD + La Nina = 3m ?

Chance of negative Indian Ocean Dipole increases
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) both remain neutral. However, despite neutral conditions being favoured for the coming months, some models suggest ocean temperature patterns in the tropical Pacific may become La Niña-like during winter or spring. Similarly, models suggest Indian Ocean temperature patterns could become negative IOD-like.

Atmospheric and oceanic indicators of ENSO, including the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trade winds, cloudiness near the Date Line, and sea surface and sub-surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean remain consistent with a neutral ENSO state.

Most of the eight climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that ENSO is likely to stay neutral through the southern hemisphere winter. However, three models reach or exceed La Niña levels in winter or spring. It should be noted that ENSO predictions made during autumn tend to have lower accuracy than predictions made at other times of the year. This means that current ENSO forecasts beyond May should be used with some caution.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is also currently neutral. All six international climate models surveyed suggest negative IOD conditions could develop from the middle of the southern hemisphere winter. However, individual models all indicate a number of possibilities in the neutral to negative IOD range. Furthermore, the accuracy of IOD forecasts is low at this time of the year, with forecast accuracy improving from late autumn. A negative IOD typically brings above average winter–spring rainfall to southern Australia.

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is currently neutral and is forecast to remain neutral for the coming three weeks. SAM has little influence upon Australian rainfall in autumn.
This is what I’ve been saying.
And of course, it’s the season that may not go ahead. And of course, it’s the first season after I moved from Melbourne to Launceston.
 
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Jellybeans

Part of the Furniture
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GFS (determs & ensembles) is intermittently forgetting it's only April.
Acting like early June.
This certainly looks like good news.
52111163-F6D5-433F-B0E2-BC20F352B092.gif


Nothing definitive, but the current climatic conditions do look hopeful for a solid ground cooling season and early winter (which depending on the way you look at it, may not be a good thing later in the season).
 

POW_hungry

Old n' Crusty
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This certainly looks like good news.
52111163-F6D5-433F-B0E2-BC20F352B092.gif


Nothing definitive, but the current climatic conditions do look hopeful for a solid ground cooling season and early winter (which depending on the way you look at it, may not be a good thing later in the season).
Yep, all over the shop at the close of this week.
 

teleroo

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Jun 19, 2019
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A little off topic but just up for discussion. I went back through the predictions threads for 2019 to try and harvest a few synoptic charts and and the AAO ensemble graphs that had been posted in the lead up to each system, like those posted above, but here is a snipped example:
upload_2020-4-15_19-13-12.png


Anyway, pretty much all these plots seemed to be "live" as in showing todays graphs. Because they were live links or whatever??, we had lost the original plots made during each predictions thread. My suggestion would be those posting these things insert images (either screen shots, or uploaded image files) rather than whatever else has been done. Thoughts?
 

POW_hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
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Eastern Burbs of Sydney
A little off topic but just up for discussion. I went back through the predictions threads for 2019 to try and harvest a few synoptic charts and and the AAO ensemble graphs that had been posted in the lead up to each system, like those posted above, but here is a snipped example:
upload_2020-4-15_19-13-12.png


Anyway, pretty much all these plots seemed to be "live" as in showing todays graphs. Because they were live links or whatever??, we had lost the original plots made during each predictions thread. My suggestion would be those posting these things insert images (either screen shots, or uploaded image files) rather than whatever else has been done. Thoughts?
We're all for posting screenshots/hosted images for posterity, particularly for climatic stuff.
Takes a little longer for some but yep, it's a decent point.
 

SMSkier

One of Us
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Oct 4, 2016
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BOM cancelled the severe wind warning for the mountains a while back.

Seems odd......wind missed the memo down here. Real strong winds at Moonbah ATM.
 
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POW_hungry

Old n' Crusty
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May 28, 2000
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BOM cancelled the severe wind warning for the mountains a while back.

Seems odd......wind missed the memo down here. Real strong winds at Moonbah ATM.
Forsure.
Particularly given: Thredbo TS registered 96km/h gust at 10:30am and the warning was CANX at 11am.
Still registering 50-80km/h too, w/ app temp well into the negatives.
 
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