Mega Thread The Autumn Alpine Ground Cooling Thread

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Mar 1, 2020.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,449
    Likes Received:
    25,880
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    April sounds like it's gonna be fun for places like Tas.
    No wonder the ensembles like more polar action middle of the month.
    [​IMG]
     
    nfip, Jellybeans, Claude Cat and 2 others like this.
  2. Gototakahashi

    Gototakahashi Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Sep 26, 2017
    Messages:
    80
    Likes Received:
    110
    Sorry all - I’ve been busy this weekend in my work at the bureau.

    This season is going to the interesting. For the of July and August, the AAO is going to be negative.
    The consensus from climate models is that moderate La Nina conditions will persist for much of the Southern Hemisphere snow season. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is picked to enter a negative phase sometime during late winter or spring; precisely the time when it tends to have the most influence on Aussie Snow. As most of you will not understand this terminology, I will explain. This combination is very good! We had this combination in record years like 1981 and the “super three” years of the 90s (1990,1991,1992). The season will start of steadily, albeit nothing like 2000. However, July and August could be record breaking. I predict the Spencer’s creek depth exceeding 3 metres in August. Constant high pressure should return by mid spring as there is evidence that El Niño could return in late October.

    [MODERATER NOTE: IMO]

    Count the days!

    Goto
     
    #102 Gototakahashi, Apr 5, 2020
    Last edited by a moderator: Apr 5, 2020
  3. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2014
    Messages:
    5,018
    Likes Received:
    5,224
    Location:
    Cairns, Queensland
    I hope you're just making this up as nobody will allowed to get out and enjoy it.
     
  4. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2016
    Messages:
    299
    Likes Received:
    477
    Location:
    Sydney
    hmm, any potential?
     
  5. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    10,328
    Likes Received:
    14,514
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    Looks like a big upgrade overnight.

    Certainly driven again by a deep cold anomaly.
    It’s looking a lot like the system just been, per latest EC.

    GEM sees it as a Tassie-only system.
    and GFS 18z isn’t interested at all.



    There is potential, something to definitely keep an eye on.
     
  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,449
    Likes Received:
    25,880
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    GFS ensembles paint a VERY DIFFERENT story to the AAO of recent days. Completely flipped yesterday.
    Big divergence.
    I wouldn't go near it until ensembles settle.
     
    nfip, Claude Cat and Adaminaby Angler like this.
  7. Xwing

    Xwing One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2016
    Messages:
    1,031
    Likes Received:
    1,422
    I stitched the Basin together and blended despite the cams being at different angles. Nice to be the sole occupant of this pic on the path. The cams are from 11:28am 06/04/2020.

     
  8. Gimp

    Gimp One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 10, 2009
    Messages:
    3,000
    Likes Received:
    4,155
    Location:
    Jindi
    It's started up high
     
  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    119,316
    Likes Received:
    61,974
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic

    Of course it is an Olympic year. Well, it was.
     
  10. Vandans

    Vandans Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2012
    Messages:
    160
    Likes Received:
    92
    Location:
    ACT
  11. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    10,328
    Likes Received:
    14,514
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
  12. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    10,328
    Likes Received:
    14,514
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    16th-18th April still looks okay for some more cold pushing through the region, EPS prefers it more than GEFS:
     
    DiscoStuAU, POW_hungry and SMSkier like this.
  13. Gototakahashi

    Gototakahashi Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Sep 26, 2017
    Messages:
    80
    Likes Received:
    110
    I have some good news despite all the doom and gloom around today.
    My good mate ‘The Frog’ has announced that he will be resuming his daily forecasts from the 1st of May. ‘The Frog’ (I know him as Pete) is a very experienced forecaster and a lot of you here will find his information useful and learn from him. Let’s look upwards in this dim world of the present!
     
    Captainkeen and dawooduck like this.
  14. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2010
    Messages:
    1,048
    Likes Received:
    599
    Today was fun! When are we thinking the next decent front will come through?
     
  15. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    10,328
    Likes Received:
    14,514
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    17th-19th of April looks like it has some potential, deterministic EC looks pretty meagre though:


    And another period for potential troughing later in the month, 25th-27th of April:
     
  16. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2014
    Messages:
    5,018
    Likes Received:
    5,224
    Location:
    Cairns, Queensland
    Who needs Frog? We have @Donzah @Kletterer @Claude Cat @POW_hungry have I missed anyone?
     
  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    119,316
    Likes Received:
    61,974
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    cornice11, Big_Red_60, nfip and 9 others like this.
  18. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2014
    Messages:
    5,018
    Likes Received:
    5,224
    Location:
    Cairns, Queensland
    I knew I missed at least one:doh:
     
  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    119,316
    Likes Received:
    61,974
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    TBH, it's a great community and everybody plays their part.
     
    nfip, Majikthise, Seafm and 5 others like this.
  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,449
    Likes Received:
    25,880
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    GFS really likes the 25th. Early indications point to a SW Aus bias for this particular long wave, but circa 25th if it ends up peaking East:
    [​IMG]
     
  21. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    18,862
    Likes Received:
    19,933
    Location:
    Canberra
    EC 28th
     
    SMSkier likes this.
  22. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 1999
    Messages:
    39,519
    Likes Received:
    5,243
    Location:
    An airport
    Never heard of him.
     
  23. Doonks

    Doonks Let's cook! Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2000
    Messages:
    63,980
    Likes Received:
    10,606
    Location:
    Mulgrave, VICTORIA
    Frog was on these forums from about 1998/99 onwards.
    https://www.ski.com.au/xf/members/the-frog.531/

    There's still a big bunch of people here who know him. Eventually he started his own site and forums for forecasting. How is it going over there?
     
  24. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    18,862
    Likes Received:
    19,933
    Location:
    Canberra
    GFS showing interest in the 28th.
     
  25. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    18,862
    Likes Received:
    19,933
    Location:
    Canberra
  26. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1970
    Messages:
    31,183
    Likes Received:
    16,228
    Location:
    Blue Mts
    Ahhh .The days of " Team Guinness"..
     
    Doonks likes this.
  27. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2014
    Messages:
    5,018
    Likes Received:
    5,224
    Location:
    Cairns, Queensland
    Must not be going too good if @Gototakahashi is trying to drum up support from here.
     
  28. Doonks

    Doonks Let's cook! Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2000
    Messages:
    63,980
    Likes Received:
    10,606
    Location:
    Mulgrave, VICTORIA
    The Porterhouse if I recall
     
    trappers and Majikthise like this.
  29. Jacko4650

    Jacko4650 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    May 15, 2014
    Messages:
    2,573
    Likes Received:
    4,772
    Getting some white love in N.Z.
     
  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,449
    Likes Received:
    25,880
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    EC siding with another clipper on the 22nd April, it’s bounced around these dates but pretty normal for Autumn (notoriously lowest LR skill).
     
  31. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    2,620
    Likes Received:
    3,253
    Location:
    Gerroa
    Does neg IOD + La Nina = 3m ?

    Chance of negative Indian Ocean Dipole increases
    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

    The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) both remain neutral. However, despite neutral conditions being favoured for the coming months, some models suggest ocean temperature patterns in the tropical Pacific may become La Niña-like during winter or spring. Similarly, models suggest Indian Ocean temperature patterns could become negative IOD-like.

    Atmospheric and oceanic indicators of ENSO, including the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trade winds, cloudiness near the Date Line, and sea surface and sub-surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean remain consistent with a neutral ENSO state.

    Most of the eight climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that ENSO is likely to stay neutral through the southern hemisphere winter. However, three models reach or exceed La Niña levels in winter or spring. It should be noted that ENSO predictions made during autumn tend to have lower accuracy than predictions made at other times of the year. This means that current ENSO forecasts beyond May should be used with some caution.

    The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is also currently neutral. All six international climate models surveyed suggest negative IOD conditions could develop from the middle of the southern hemisphere winter. However, individual models all indicate a number of possibilities in the neutral to negative IOD range. Furthermore, the accuracy of IOD forecasts is low at this time of the year, with forecast accuracy improving from late autumn. A negative IOD typically brings above average winter–spring rainfall to southern Australia.

    The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is currently neutral and is forecast to remain neutral for the coming three weeks. SAM has little influence upon Australian rainfall in autumn.
     
  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,449
    Likes Received:
    25,880
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    BoM: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
     
    Gototakahashi and rocketboy like this.
  33. Gototakahashi

    Gototakahashi Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Sep 26, 2017
    Messages:
    80
    Likes Received:
    110
    This is what I’ve been saying.
    And of course, it’s the season that may not go ahead. And of course, it’s the first season after I moved from Melbourne to Launceston.
     
    Jacko4650 likes this.
  34. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,449
    Likes Received:
    25,880
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    But in your post above, further up you remark El Niño conditions by Spring.
    Hrmm, La Niña to El Niño transition in 2-3 months? hedging.
     
    Kletterer likes this.
  35. Jasper Schwarz

    Jasper Schwarz One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jun 18, 2017
    Messages:
    665
    Likes Received:
    1,903
    Location:
    Northern Beaches, Sydney,
    Soemthing interetsing that I found in relationship to the table above, which is kindve important: In other words there is not enough data to suggest the correlation between these different items
     
  36. Onlybackscratchers

    Onlybackscratchers One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 7, 2017
    Messages:
    737
    Likes Received:
    2,610
    @Jellybeans Isn't there evidence that with climate change, a La Nina and negative IOD season may result in more rain events, and now a poorer season?
     
  37. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,449
    Likes Received:
    25,880
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    GFS (determs & ensembles) is intermittently forgetting it's only April.
    Acting like early June.
     
    Claude Cat and SMSkier like this.
  38. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    10,328
    Likes Received:
    14,514
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    This certainly looks like good news.


    Nothing definitive, but the current climatic conditions do look hopeful for a solid ground cooling season and early winter (which depending on the way you look at it, may not be a good thing later in the season).
     
  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,449
    Likes Received:
    25,880
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Yep, all over the shop at the close of this week.
     
  40. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,449
    Likes Received:
    25,880
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Finkle is Einhorn?!
     
  41. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    18,862
    Likes Received:
    19,933
    Location:
    Canberra
    ( Moderators Note) Incorrectly noted/ source credited plots and data graphs will not be tolerated .
     
  42. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 4, 2016
    Messages:
    2,002
    Likes Received:
    14,614
    Here’s an Autumn vista looking towards the mountains......Jillamatong thru to lake Jindy

     
  43. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

    Joined:
    May 4, 2010
    Messages:
    702
    Likes Received:
    509
    Location:
    Helensburgh
    Oh I wish I was in isolation down there ATM
     
  44. teleroo

    teleroo still looking for Thredbo in the Park Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 19, 2019
    Messages:
    823
    Likes Received:
    1,741
    Location:
    Illawarra
    A little off topic but just up for discussion. I went back through the predictions threads for 2019 to try and harvest a few synoptic charts and and the AAO ensemble graphs that had been posted in the lead up to each system, like those posted above, but here is a snipped example:


    Anyway, pretty much all these plots seemed to be "live" as in showing todays graphs. Because they were live links or whatever??, we had lost the original plots made during each predictions thread. My suggestion would be those posting these things insert images (either screen shots, or uploaded image files) rather than whatever else has been done. Thoughts?
     
    Kletterer and POW_hungry like this.
  45. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2015
    Messages:
    6,923
    Likes Received:
    6,364
    Location:
    Melbourne
    It is a mild morning here in Melbourne but this Sat. April 16th could bring a dusting of snow to the VIc. Alps or perhaps not....
     
  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,449
    Likes Received:
    25,880
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    We're all for posting screenshots/hosted images for posterity, particularly for climatic stuff.
    Takes a little longer for some but yep, it's a decent point.
     
  47. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 4, 2016
    Messages:
    2,002
    Likes Received:
    14,614
    BOM cancelled the severe wind warning for the mountains a while back.

    Seems odd......wind missed the memo down here. Real strong winds at Moonbah ATM.
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,449
    Likes Received:
    25,880
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Forsure.
    Particularly given: Thredbo TS registered 96km/h gust at 10:30am and the warning was CANX at 11am.
    Still registering 50-80km/h too, w/ app temp well into the negatives.
     
    Scoober, SMSkier and Claude Cat like this.
  49. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 26, 2002
    Messages:
    63,013
    Likes Received:
    37,790
    Location:
    Mountains
    If it was June you would call this a blizzard

     
    DaveM, SMSkier, Ret-ro and 4 others like this.
  50. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    10,328
    Likes Received:
    14,514
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    28th April - 2nd May looking like a potential period for cold and troughing on the ensembles: