Mega Thread The Autumn Alpine Ground Cooling Thread

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rocketboy

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So a colder year this year I see.

to be expected given it's the end of la nina.

what I'm seeing though is the temps are not overly cold in the mountains, but elsewhere it's quite a lot cooler than usual. the coast is certainly more chilly than usual in May.

2012 was not instant cold either - althought it was extremely cold just before the charity weekend. but after that was so so - until end of June when it went crazy for 10 weeks

I don't think we'll get quite that this year - but I do think it's going to be more forgiving than 2016. 40/50mm rain events not 80/100mm.

Would be nice to see a reasonable snow event by LWE.
 

snowgum

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Could someone move Australia a bit to the right please.
What a waste of good weather.
NZ should benefit.

It’s uncanny to see the systems peaking over both WA and the Tasman/NZ but fizzle over SE. Quite a common up occurrence but still disappointing! Early days eh? :rolleyes:
 

rocketboy

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GFS pretty much dropping the system now. EC appears to agree IMO.

At least we have really good snow making weather

Time for some negative doom and gloom. This is looking like a serious machine only June until further notice. As it stands about the only good thing in the forecast has been the MJO effectively going to zero after a failed breakout. And I'm guessing that's about the only reason we ain't getting smashed by real rain events last week and this week. Instead it looks like a high pressure system will save the day with cold super dry nights. Lucky the fake stuff at Perisher altitudes is often better than the real stuff in May and June. Chances are someone should be able to do a 100 V8s monday week. With a dash of fresh to slick it up.
 
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lewis

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Time for some negative doom and gloom. This is looking like a serious machine only June until further notice. As it stands about the only good thing in the forecast has been the MJO effectively going to zero after a failed breakout. And I'm guessing that's about the only reason we ain't getting smashed by real rain events last week and this week. Instead it looks like a high pressure system will save the day with cold super dry nights. Lucky the fake stuff at Perisher altitudes is often better than the real stuff in May and June. Chances are someone should be able to do a 100 V8s monday week. With a dash of fresh to slick it up.

What indicators are you able to base a month long forecast on? The only ones i know of are the general climate indicators such as the IOD, ENSO and SAM which don't necessarily look bad. Just interested to know if there's anything else I possibly should be looking at for such a long range out.
 

Fancy_Pants

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Time for some negative doom and gloom. This is looking like a serious machine only June until further notice. As it stands about the only good thing in the forecast has been the MJO effectively going to zero after a failed breakout. And I'm guessing that's about the only reason we ain't getting smashed by real rain events last week and this week. Instead it looks like a high pressure system will save the day with cold super dry nights. Lucky the fake stuff at Perisher altitudes is often better than the real stuff in May and June. Chances are someone should be able to do a 100 V8s monday week. With a dash of fresh to slick it up.

Eh, it's May. Dust on manmade crust is the definition of June most years
 
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Roymond

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Report on the ABC website suggesting a warmer and wetter than normal winter.
Any reassuring comments from the weather experts on the site for the rest of us weather numpties ?
 

POW Hungry

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Report on the ABC website suggesting a warmer and wetter than normal winter.
Any reassuring comments from the weather experts on the site for the rest of us weather numpties ?
Simply regurge'ed from BoM's climate update:
Screen Shot 2021-05-29 at 6.38.26 pm.png


You'd expect wetter after the strong presence of La Nina of the Summer just gone.
This is expected to continue with good support from the negative/neutral-negative IOD.

Temps-wise is no deal-breaker for the Aus Alps, as long as we see weekly/bi-weekly polar fronts to bring those cold shots.
By and large, I think (IMO) BoM's gathering a good portion of that info from a strong negative zonal presence in our region this winter which puts the spotlight on Easterly winds/temps off the Tasman influencing the SE, rather than the traditional SW.
Then there's 'Climate Change' to bank on... The rapid influences of CC make it a safe bet IMO.
 

robbo mcs

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Time for some negative doom and gloom. This is looking like a serious machine only June until further notice. As it stands about the only good thing in the forecast has been the MJO effectively going to zero after a failed breakout. And I'm guessing that's about the only reason we ain't getting smashed by real rain events last week and this week. Instead it looks like a high pressure system will save the day with cold super dry nights. Lucky the fake stuff at Perisher altitudes is often better than the real stuff in May and June. Chances are someone should be able to do a 100 V8s monday week. With a dash of fresh to slick it up.

We have been in a lot worse positions many years at this time. At least conditions look pretty good coming up for snowmaking. That should allow the NSW resorts to kick off on schedule, albeit on snowmaking
 

skichic

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Some icy bits on the walk to Horse Camp hut
 

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Reetro

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to be expected given it's the end of la nina.

what I'm seeing though is the temps are not overly cold in the mountains, but elsewhere it's quite a lot cooler than usual. the coast is certainly more chilly than usual in May.

2012 was not instant cold either - althought it was extremely cold just before the charity weekend. but after that was so so - until end of June when it went crazy for 10 weeks

I don't think we'll get quite that this year - but I do think it's going to be more forgiving than 2016. 40/50mm rain events not 80/100mm.

Would be nice to see a reasonable snow event by LWE.
Of interest they said in Brisbane its averaging 8c colder then ' normal'... The cycle going in the circle again.
 
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rocketboy

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Of interest hey said in Brisbane its averaging 8c colder then ' normal'... The cycle going in the circle again.

Without a doubt it's colder outside the mts than usual - it's quite broad, though consistent with la nina years. If we can average slightly cooler in July and August - it could all pan out nicely in them hills yet. A typical average season with an ok bias is my expectation.
 

Ijay

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GFS 00Z going big for the 8th of June system:
DDEC7FEE-ADFE-45F8-AC6C-C8012F9097A9.png


Cold pool heads deep into the interior and delivers snow in strange places up north.
534 dam line (upper level cold pool) in QLD.
Also delivers some decent snowfall for the Alps.

I like, this could deliver a S/SSE flow over my part of the world. Perhaps the year's first dusting for the Wadbilliga. Fingers crossed.
 

Reetro

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8 degrees? No effin way average temp anomalies are that large. That's practically an ice age. I know it's just chit chat but ....
Yes that was the BOM measurements of average hourly temperatures from 1 May until now in BNE as compared to last year.. As I say its BOM, I was surprised they didn't tell us it was warmer? Inside goss is, its correct. so bring on the Snow...lol
 
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