Mega Thread The Autumn Alpine Ground Cooling Thread

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Kletterer

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At least EC shows a significant mass of cold. A cradling High might mess with things though.
xx_model-en-304-0_modez_2021053012_198_10_447.png
 

AT&TeleMike

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Hey all you self appointed weather experts. When is it going to snow properly? To me, it looks like it's not going to be any good for another 4 to 6 weeks at the moment. Especially in the back country.
 

Jasper Schwarz

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Hey all you self appointed weather experts. When is it going to snow properly? To me, it looks like it's not going to be any good for another 4 to 6 weeks at the moment. Especially in the back country.
I know that I am far from an expert (for that you would have to turn to the actual professionals -> BOM) and there are far more experienced people than me, but they all do it for fun (and I know that I am trying to learn), and for what comes across as a fairly passive aggressie note seems a bit harsh IMO. The last 20+ posts have been more or less about an incoming system. how about we let it develop a bit first and for go from there?
As has been pointed out 50 times over, anything outside of 4 days is a crap shoot, and anything more than 7 days is a pure guess.

Also 4-6 weeks puts us smack bang in the middle of July. Its *Almost* like that is usually when the first real dump of the season arrives. Im as excited for the snow season for you, but we just all have to keep sitting tight for the time being
 

snowgum

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I agree with JS.

Apologies Mod - a little of topic here, will endeavour to do better!

Its great (exciting!) to speculate about the first dump to get some skiing started.

But the reality for SE Oz (esp Vic) in about 4 years out of 5, minimal to zippo skiing is available. And any limited action is generally confined to they 1-2 main snowmaking areas, like Buller-Bourke St, P-FV, Falls Towers, etc..

Unfortunately these early April and May falls (even June to a degree) serve mainly to ramp up expectations and bookings but tend not to do much in terms of starting a base. Perhaps the highest, SE aspects of the main range is an exception to this. Sometimes?

This time of year, juicy systems seem to mainly peak on the far SW of WA and the eastern Tasman near the west coast of NZ South Island. Anything in June that peaks over SE alps is more a bonus (exception) - unfortunately!

Anyway, my ‘crusty old’ two cents. (Obs/learnings since 85’)
It is still a good time to work on one’s fitness, confirm bookings, leave balance, bank balance (if >$0?), check gear repair, ski edges, skin glue, car service, chains and ski racks etc...

Maybe think positive thoughts? It is still very early days! :whistle:
 

warrie

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NSW school hols are a week earlier than usual starting Sat June 26th. We used to go down in the second week which this year will be 3rd July. Snowy Hydro stats from mid 90's on will show when depth exceeded 50 cm for want of a better base depth. In plenty of years week 1 of hols was a dud and in shockers like 97, 06 and 10 to name a few even week 2 was a fizzer.
 

Dave Clark

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Temps-wise is no deal-breaker for the Aus Alps, as long as we see weekly/bi-weekly polar fronts to bring those cold shots.

"Minimum temperatures for winter are very likely to be above average for most of Australia"

Am I missing something? While it might not be a deal-breaker, it doesn't sound great for snowmaking does it? And some fronts don't help snowmaking at all, they just make the wet-bulb temps higher; combined with higher minimums it doesn't sound great to me.
 

snowgum

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NSW school hols are a week earlier than usual starting Sat June 26th. We used to go down in the second week which this year will be 3rd July. Snowy Hydro stats from mid 90's on will show when depth exceeded 50 cm for want of a better base depth. In plenty of years week 1 of hols was a dud and in shockers like 97, 06 and 10 to name a few even week 2 was a fizzer.

Its a shame School holidays in general are a smidge too early for reliable snow.

This works too ways of course. From memory, the old days of 3 school and uni terms, August school holidays provided the ‘bonanza’ for skiers and bookings/industry. But the remaining season had big shoulder or off peak periods.

The new system spreads crowds more - imagine Covid-free Perisher/Thredbo crowds in August school holidays these days! :eek:

But the new system also makes for a much longer ‘peak season’ for pricing accommodation etc..., providers are charging rates because holiday periods are popular/busy, not because conditions are at their peak. :rolleyes:

I guess it’s a commercial market - this is the reality. It’s also a good time to mention NZ school holidays are late July, (great for them!), making Aussie visits in early July more worthwhile than if sharing with NZ schoolies. o_O

And NZ snowmaking has really come along in leaps and bounds over the last decade - especially the Big 4 Southern Lake fields. :)
 
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POW Hungry

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"Minimum temperatures for winter are very likely to be above average for most of Australia"

Am I missing something? While it might not be a deal-breaker, it doesn't sound great for snowmaking does it? And some fronts don't help snowmaking at all, they just make the wet-bulb temps higher; combined with higher minimums it doesn't sound great to me.
Snowmaking... That's your back up plan.

But what if the frontal systems of 2021 bought the cooler temps & more-moisture (-'ve IOD) for increased potential in natural snow? ...And drier, warmer stints in between. That's what I am getting at.

The outlook for an 'average season' snow-depth-wise is on the table IMO. The snowmaking you put on top is always a bonus in an 'average season'.

I think the outlook of positive temp anomalies will be borne from High Pressure ridging just like you're seeing this week on Buller. Besides, there's often an expiry date on snowmaking under HP ridge scenarios so I'd hope there's still some reliability in our winter systems, bringing just that.
 
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NightSky

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According to BOM, for Perisher at least, the maximums for May have been lower, but the minimums have been higher. So a mixed bag.

May Long term Mean Low -1.5 High 7.9
May 2021 Mean Low -1.3 High 7.1
 
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POW Hungry

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According to BOM, for Perisher at least, the maximums for May have been lower, but the minimums have been higher. So a mixed bag.

May Long term Mean Low -1.5 High 7.9
May 2021 Mean Low -1.3 High 7.1
This last fortnight in the SE has been exceptional - hasn't been a May like it in many years.
It's by no means a reflection of what Winter will bring IMO.
 

Xwing

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I just saw a flock of gallahs heading ESE at 0845 am. So probably 730 am on 8 June 2021.
Are you the weatherzone person? Perhaps the person in their office saw the same flock of gallahs with the WZ predicting 5-10cm Tue 8 June.
 

warrie

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Its a shame School holidays in general are a smidgen too early for reliable snow.

This works too ways of course. From memory, the old days of 3 school and uni terms, August school holidays provided the ‘bonanza’ for skiers and bookings/industry. But the remaining season had big shoulder or off peak periods.

The new system spreads crowds more - imagine Covid-free Perisher/Thredbo crowds in August school holidays these days! :eek:

But the new system also makes for a much longer ‘peak season’ for pricing accommodation etc..., providers are charging rates because holiday periods are popular/busy, not because conditions are at their peak. :rolleyes:

I guess it’s a commercial market - this is the reality. It’s also a good time to mention NZ school holidays are late July, (great for them!), making Aussie visits in early July more worthwhile than if sharing with NZ schoolies. o_O

And NZ snowmaking has really come along in leaps and bounds over the last decade - especially the Big 4 Southern Lake fields. :)
Hmmm, the old days are 1986 and earlier for the last times NSW had a 3 term year. Plenty on this forum not even born then. LOL And please it's galahs with one l
 

BlueHue

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According to BOM, for Perisher at least, the maximums for May have been lower, but the minimums have been higher. So a mixed bag.

May Long term Mean Low -1.5 High 7.9
May 2021 Mean Low -1.3 High 7.1
Need to put in context of variation over weeks and month. The second half of May mins have been much much lower (more so than you'd expect from the natural cooling due to change of seasons) hence the good snowmaking the last couple of weeks! Other thing to note is those averages are very, well umm average. No major divergence from the average. Funny thing averages.

Its amazing how many good seasons I've trotted off to the see the average SE Aust temps for winter post September and found that temps overall were pretty average or in some cases a little warmer than norm. It's all about the precip arriving regularly with the right temps. If it's > 5C in between fronts by day but the fronts keep coming and delivering regular snow through July and August than it'll be a good winter. If its 2C and raining every second day as it seemed at times last year than not so good. The averages from a distance might make the latter seem a cooler and snowier winter.
 

Adelaidometer

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NSW school hols are a week earlier than usual starting Sat June 26th. We used to go down in the second week which this year will be 3rd July. Snowy Hydro stats from mid 90's on will show when depth exceeded 50 cm for want of a better base depth. In plenty of years week 1 of hols was a dud and in shockers like 97, 06 and 10 to name a few even week 2 was a fizzer.
All the better for the South Australians
 
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Jasper Schwarz

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I think EC is bagging this one on the 00z run. Good progression, with a cut off once that cold air runs up Western Vic IMO.
Speculatively, it's a 15-20cm fall for the Alps, at this stage, IMO.
ecmwf_z500_mslp_aus_9.png
You and I are both waiting for that final frame.
CMC agrees with a cut-off as well, but much colder than EC. I tend to agree that all 3 models think a system is coming, but by how much and how cold now we will have to wait and see

upload_2021-5-31_16-48-25.png

EDIT: frame just came though, still a cut off, and no where near as cold as the CMC.
Where to from here?
 
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