Mega Thread The Autumn Alpine Ground Cooling Thread

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Snow Blowey

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Here’s an Autumn vista looking towards the mountains......Jillamatong thru to lake Jindy

5A1676EB-B904-45EB-A70A-541BA33A7952.jpeg


Looking north to south on wednesday afternoon when the lenticular was in full swing.

aaDJI_0396.jpg
 

Gototakahashi

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Yes, it looks like a good one. I’m predicting about 5cm falling on the upper mountains.

Moderator's Adjustment:
IMO, with further reasoning TBA.
 
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POW Hungry

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Remote chance of snow flurry above 1900m tonight, for the Main Range.
Bugger all moisture but if there were to be a passing shower you'd likely see it fall as snow above that ele IMO.

Dew points look good, so should be frosty morning in the mountains by tomorrow AM.
 

POW Hungry

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** MODERATOR'S NOTE**
As winter approaches we'll rejuvenate, sticky and improve on Weather Posting Guidelines but for now please provide sources, clarity and/or reasoning behind a IMO forecast.

Citing 'IMO' underlines that it's your opinion only, BUT how you derived that conclusion is equally important for the audience here.

Posts of rogue 'punting' on future weather (without reasonable explanation) will be moderated and potentially deleted.
 

Ret-ro

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** MODERATOR'S NOTE**
As winter approaches we'll rejuvenate, sticky and improve on Weather Posting Guidelines but for now please provide sources, clarity and/or reasoning behind a IMO forecast.

Citing 'IMO' underlines that it's your opinion only, BUT how you derived that conclusion is equally important for the audience here.

Posts of rogue 'punting' on future weather (without reasonable explanation) will be moderated and potentially deleted.
Funny though POW a lot of the charts and material posted here is just a computers bets fit guess.. lol
 

POW Hungry

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Funny though POW a lot of the charts and material posted here is just a computers bets fit guess.. lol
Interpretation of data is a whole different ball game.
Anyone can ‘guess’ (always welcomed!) but ensuring you preface a ‘guess’ with how one arrived at that conclusion allows for the audience to dismiss or accept a call.
Some members on this forum spend hours pouring over data, trying to interpret the accuracy of data. To have someone come along and shoot from the hip without any detail is baseless and dilutes a lot of hard work done by many on here.
Simply request really.
 

teleroo

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Funny though POW a lot of the charts and material posted here is just a computers bets fit guess.. lol
I find the weather models astonishingly reliable. Usually seven to ten days out we have an idea a snow dump is brewing (or not). Four/three days out the major timing and intensity is pretty well formed up.

Given all the factors at play in what controls "the weather", the current suite of weather models we have free access to are great testament to the scientists who developed and continue to refine them.
 

SMSkier

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Interpretation of data is a whole different ball game.
Anyone can ‘guess’ (always welcomed!) but ensuring you preface a ‘guess’ with how one arrived at that conclusion allows for the audience to dismiss or accept a call.
Some members on this forum spend hours pouring over data, trying to interpret the accuracy of data. To have someone come along and shoot from the hip without any detail is baseless and dilutes a lot of hard work done by many on here.
Simply request really.

Yep.. fully agree. And those of us without the requisite skill sets can contribute when the obs threads are posted. No need for plagiarism ...
 
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Gototakahashi

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Apologies about my post before. I was just going off the GFS charts I read this morning. I understand I need to site my sources.

However, I have seen numerous people on this forum bluntly state “I’m predicting XX cm” and no one has battled an eyelid. It’s normaly assumed the prediction was made in relation to the charts etc they studied.
 

Jellybeans

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Apologies about my post before. I was just going off the GFS charts I read this morning. I understand I need to site my sources.

However, I have seen numerous people on this forum bluntly state “I’m predicting XX cm” and no one has battled an eyelid. It’s normaly assumed the prediction was made in relation to the charts etc they studied.
But it’s 10-11 days away. Nobody gets that specific at that time range.
 

POW Hungry

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Apologies about my post before. I was just going off the GFS charts I read this morning. I understand I need to site my sources.

However, I have seen numerous people on this forum bluntly state “I’m predicting XX cm” and no one has battled an eyelid. It’s normaly assumed the prediction was made in relation to the charts etc they studied.
No probs.
Thanks for clarifying.

Case in point: if we look at GFS (00z 18APR), it goes for a fair bit more than 5 cents above ~1500m hence why I've flagged where you're getting that detail from.
...But of course you're now welcome to say you were meaning for 'Dinner Plain', or 'Mount Stirling' etc. See where I am going with this? If you wanna call it (>10 days out) you gotta back it up. Otherwise everyone here is welcome to consider it nonsense.
You seem smart @Gototakahashi so it also helps those with less insight in snow Weather to learn.
AC6EA7A8-0BDF-4FD4-A7D5-0885B3026B84.png
 

POW Hungry

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A unique scenario over the alps tonight, whereby upper-level diffluence (upstream confluence @ jet level) is aiding adiabatic effects. Coupled with diurnal cooling (2-5am) we see a deep layering of near Zero temps.

Similarly to last night, any passing shower through the alps in the early hours of tomorrow AM may fall as snow about ~1900m IMO.
EC Sounding for 4am Koscuisko:
2020-04-19_17-55-02.jpg
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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A unique scenario over the alps tonight, whereby upper-level diffluence (upstream confluence @ jet level) is aiding adiabatic effects. Coupled with diurnal cooling (2-5am) we see a deep layering of near Zero temps.

Similarly to last night, any passing shower through the alps in the early hours of tomorrow AM may fall as snow about ~1900m IMO.
EC Sounding for 4am Koscuisko:
2020-04-19_17-55-02.jpg
+1.1ºC @ Buller, +0.9ºC at Hotham and high level moisture appearing on Yarrawonga Radar.
 
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DaveM

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I find it interesting that this far out, the models seem happy enough to show a similarish timing and the fact it could be fairly interesting for those of us who love snow.

Obviously we hope they stay in a similar vein as we get closer and the shape and timing of it should gradually Firm up or (hopefully not) disappear. :thumbs:
 

DaveM

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Getting to the time frame of the year when one of these will but through as a solid change. Time will tell, still hopeful on the end of April early May dates.
 

DaveM

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Acces G and GFS relatively similar to each other with the front transitioning into a low in the Tasman and spinning up brisk southerlies to push a tongue of cold air well up the Tablelands, hopefully this scenario (if it happens) might provide some precip for the Monaro region.

all conjecture at this stage but I feel that scenario is still possible. As mentioned by others, EC Not keen (flat) at that time with the high holding everything south And leaving basically a westerly wind flow. Hope EC is wrong but time will tell. Still a long way out.
 
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