Mega Thread The Autumn Alpine Ground Cooling Thread

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Mar 1, 2020.

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  1. DaveM

    DaveM One of Us

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    EC is back.

    The change late April now sees ball park similarities in the 3 majors. There are obviously differences in exact shape and extent but I like the fact they are all showing similar rough timing and a change with the reasonable chance of pushing in to Southern Nsw. That extent and moisture content and timing seem to vary.

    Still a week out so things likely to change and evolve, but it looks interesting to me. Definitely “tools up” time for resorts.
     
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  2. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Light frost and cool at Moonbah this morning. Ice skating for the birds. Definitely Autumn!


     
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  3. Adaminaby Angler

    Adaminaby Angler One of Us

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    ^Very different to here! No frost/ice at all where I am (10.8° C from a low of 4.4° C).

    All the cold's been draining into the lower valleys.
     
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  4. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Autumn afternoon.

    I’m certain we had something very similar to mother of pearl in the cloud overhead. Was not outstanding but definitely had the range of colours. Lasted only for a few minutes. Pics don’t show it up very well.





    And just a few Autumn sky shots today.


     
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  5. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Gnarly looking inverted trough intruding into the polar circle @ ~20ºE.
    That whole region is MJO induced at the moment.
     
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  7. Homer

    Homer One of Us

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    So can you guys explain what this means for the rest of us who are not so meteorologically educated?
     
  8. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Such a non Sedentary flow in mid April is almost bizzare.
     
  9. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    You should watch May 9-12th for the next system.
     
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  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    You can see a nice horseshoe-shaped jet intruding over the Antarctic continent. A very atypical flow for the circ-polar jet.
    MJO is currently firing up around Western Indian Ocean so there's a lot of influence on that region, so likely to be disrupting polar flow.
     
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  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's a bumper system for SW WA at this rate!
     
  12. Homer

    Homer One of Us

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    Thank you. I suspected that but wasn't sure considering the posts were made in the event thread for this week. The fact the posts have now been moved makes even more sense.
     
  13. Homer

    Homer One of Us

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    Yep, makes sense. Thanks.
     
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  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  15. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Weathers up in the mountains.....

    PV 10mm in the past 90 minutes. Windy as at Moonbah with a few drops being carried off the mountain by the winds.

    Not far off closing in though. Some reasonable moisture would prep the soil for the main event later next week.

     
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  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like 5-10 for you today/tomorrow.
    Should bring another shade of green to the area.
     
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  17. glug1

    glug1 Addicted

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    25mm in my gauge in Bendigo overnight, still drizzling :)
     
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  18. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Likewise here south of Baw Baw
     
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  19. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Had 27mm up here(strezleckis)

    What area south of baw baw u located ski??
     
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  20. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    So the Zombie Season could see some rock hopping first tracks next weekend. That would be irony writ large.
     
  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    35mm at Thredbo since 6am.
    42mm @ Perisher in the same window.
     
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  22. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Near Neerim south dooga
     
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  23. Jacko4650

    Jacko4650 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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  24. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    9-12th May starting to pop onto EPS.


    AAO is correcting back into the negatives.


    And the MJO is likely to be in the region during that period.
     
  25. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Top of PV today. Expect this will be white in a few days and stick around the peaks. Ground nice and moist from yesterday’s rain so waiting for temps to keep falling into May.



    More to the Southwest.



    Middle of the day - a few frozen puddles and grains of ice about despite the warmish temps. Give it a week!

     

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  26. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    With the enriched conditions of an impending MJO visit, I'd go out on a limb and say what we're experiencing here (in SE Aus) is a version of a -'ive IOD scenario in premonition to 2 months time.
    Tropical IO is cooking. The only way is up.
     
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  28. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ensembles flagging it, now deterministics have it in the sights.
    10th May System holding ground:
     
  29. Homer

    Homer One of Us

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    @Jellybeans posted the following on the 23rd for the current system. Could we have a repeat of the current in a week or so?

    [​IMG]
     
  30. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    I reckon there’s real potential there. All setup ready to go.
     
  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Trending on GFS tonight. Very-much so aligned with EC for now:
    [​IMG]
     
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  32. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  33. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Chances are it’s going to be wet. The real question is this season going to be cold.
     
  34. Gototakahashi

    Gototakahashi Hard Yards

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    Exactly.
    Hopefully it’s not another 2016. Snowed a lot, but rained even more.
     
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  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    With some reasonable confidence IMO there's a fair chance of the 9-11th May system having only slight 'winter' influence on the SE at this stage.
    The negatively tilted long-wave pattern might yield some nice convective activity (8-10th) but the growing amplitude of the trailing long wave (positively tilted to Madagascar below) has the precursor hallmarks of decent LW.
    17-21st one to watch IMO.


    Supported also by a forging IO tropical atmosphere. The MJO go around is due back (right where it is right now) by mid May, with a Rossby Wave signal fronting the push.
    [​IMG]
     
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  36. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    That tropical atmosphere looks ready to go. Could be a great early season.

    In the medium term, the AAO looks like it poses an issue to further major snowfalls in May.

    The GFS forecast hasn’t been great, but it’s inline with the expectations of the Bureau (which haven’t exactly been amazing either), so take what one wishes.

    The -AAO was caused in part due to the transfer of negative momentum to help loosen up the polar flow. That factor is waning now, and we may see an injection of more positive momentum into the polar regions, which would ease things down.

    RRWT noted 25th-29th May, it’s in my diary for now.

    The MJO might be able to save the first system if we are lucky, but also looks to be on the down low, at least according to RMM indexes.
     
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  37. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    10th trending positively on GFS, whilst EC holds steady.
    EC


    GFS
     
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  38. Gototakahashi

    Gototakahashi Hard Yards

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  39. Jacko4650

    Jacko4650 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Here we go!
     
  40. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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  41. Gototakahashi

    Gototakahashi Hard Yards

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    I look forward to it. From what I read from you, I think your predictions are more accurate but the grasshopper still knows his stuff.
     
  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  43. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Anybody know what happened to Gerg’s website?
    I tried tweeting him to no avail.
    @Majikthise maybe?
     
  44. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Que Sera, Sera Ski Pass: Gold

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  45. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Had missed that , he has been pretty active on twitter, so i will also ask as well.
     
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  46. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  47. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah I thought that :(
     
  48. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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  49. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Okay everyone, here is my Australian snow season outlook for 2020:
    https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2020/05/02/australian-snow-season-outlook-2020/

    My final prediction is for a moderately better than average snow season.
    And my number for the Spencer's Creek final snow depth is 207±30cm

    If I was going all grasshopper poker analogy, that would be a four of a kind.

    All of the factors are lining up, except for a potentially dangerous dark horse in the AAO/SAM. The tropics look stacked, and the SSTs in the Bight look nice and cold. I'm cautiously confident here.
     
  50. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Showing on deterministics this AM:
    [​IMG]
     

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