Mega Thread The Autumn Alpine Ground Cooling Thread

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DaveM

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EC is back.

The change late April now sees ball park similarities in the 3 majors. There are obviously differences in exact shape and extent but I like the fact they are all showing similar rough timing and a change with the reasonable chance of pushing in to Southern Nsw. That extent and moisture content and timing seem to vary.

Still a week out so things likely to change and evolve, but it looks interesting to me. Definitely “tools up” time for resorts.
 
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SMSkier

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Light frost and cool at Moonbah this morning. Ice skating for the birds. Definitely Autumn!

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SMSkier

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Autumn afternoon.

I’m certain we had something very similar to mother of pearl in the cloud overhead. Was not outstanding but definitely had the range of colours. Lasted only for a few minutes. Pics don’t show it up very well.

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And just a few Autumn sky shots today.

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Homer

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. A really funky setup down South under Africa and Madagascar . The Dynamics and progression from tomorow on is far from what one would would expect in April.
yoop.png
Gnarly looking inverted trough intruding into the polar circle @ ~20ºE.
That whole region is MJO induced at the moment.

So can you guys explain what this means for the rest of us who are not so meteorologically educated?
 

POW Hungry

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So can you guys explain what this means for the rest of us who are not so meteorologically educated?
You can see a nice horseshoe-shaped jet intruding over the Antarctic continent. A very atypical flow for the circ-polar jet.
MJO is currently firing up around Western Indian Ocean so there's a lot of influence on that region, so likely to be disrupting polar flow.
 

SMSkier

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Weathers up in the mountains.....

PV 10mm in the past 90 minutes. Windy as at Moonbah with a few drops being carried off the mountain by the winds.

Not far off closing in though. Some reasonable moisture would prep the soil for the main event later next week.

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POW Hungry

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Weathers up in the mountains.....

PV 10mm in the past 90 minutes. Windy as at Moonbah with a few drops being carried off the mountain by the winds.

Not far off closing in though. Some reasonable moisture would prep the soil for the main event later next week.

B0437F3A-784D-4B2C-9917-BEBCD436C655.jpeg
Looks like 5-10 for you today/tomorrow.
Should bring another shade of green to the area.
 
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rocketboy

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So the Zombie Season could see some rock hopping first tracks next weekend. That would be irony writ large.
 

SMSkier

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Top of PV today. Expect this will be white in a few days and stick around the peaks. Ground nice and moist from yesterday’s rain so waiting for temps to keep falling into May.

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More to the Southwest.

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Middle of the day - a few frozen puddles and grains of ice about despite the warmish temps. Give it a week!

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POW Hungry

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With the enriched conditions of an impending MJO visit, I'd go out on a limb and say what we're experiencing here (in SE Aus) is a version of a -'ive IOD scenario in premonition to 2 months time.
Tropical IO is cooking. The only way is up.
 

POW Hungry

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With some reasonable confidence IMO there's a fair chance of the 9-11th May system having only slight 'winter' influence on the SE at this stage.
The negatively tilted long-wave pattern might yield some nice convective activity (8-10th) but the growing amplitude of the trailing long wave (positively tilted to Madagascar below) has the precursor hallmarks of decent LW.
17-21st one to watch IMO.
Screen Shot 2020-04-30 at 9.38.25 pm.png


Supported also by a forging IO tropical atmosphere. The MJO go around is due back (right where it is right now) by mid May, with a Rossby Wave signal fronting the push.
rrwt-4650-sh-gph.png
 

Jellybeans

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With some reasonable confidence IMO there's a fair chance of the 9-11th May system having only slight 'winter' influence on the SE at this stage.
The negatively tilted long-wave pattern might yield some nice convective activity (8-10th) but the growing amplitude of the trailing long wave (positively tilted to Madagascar below) has the precursor hallmarks of decent LW.
17-21st one to watch IMO.
Screen Shot 2020-04-30 at 9.38.25 pm.png


Supported also by a forging IO tropical atmosphere. The MJO go around is due back (right where it is right now) by mid May, with a Rossby Wave signal fronting the push.
rrwt-4650-sh-gph.png
That tropical atmosphere looks ready to go. Could be a great early season.

In the medium term, the AAO looks like it poses an issue to further major snowfalls in May.
4445FA4D-1916-420C-80FE-B4EA6C1D88AC.gif

The GFS forecast hasn’t been great, but it’s inline with the expectations of the Bureau (which haven’t exactly been amazing either), so take what one wishes.

The -AAO was caused in part due to the transfer of negative momentum to help loosen up the polar flow. That factor is waning now, and we may see an injection of more positive momentum into the polar regions, which would ease things down.

RRWT noted 25th-29th May, it’s in my diary for now.

The MJO might be able to save the first system if we are lucky, but also looks to be on the down low, at least according to RMM indexes.
 
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Jellybeans

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Okay everyone, here is my Australian snow season outlook for 2020:
https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2020/05/02/australian-snow-season-outlook-2020/

My final prediction is for a moderately better than average snow season.
And my number for the Spencer's Creek final snow depth is 207±30cm

If I was going all grasshopper poker analogy, that would be a four of a kind.

All of the factors are lining up, except for a potentially dangerous dark horse in the AAO/SAM. The tropics look stacked, and the SSTs in the Bight look nice and cold. I'm cautiously confident here.
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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With some reasonable confidence IMO there's a fair chance of the 9-11th May system having only slight 'winter' influence on the SE at this stage.
The negatively tilted long-wave pattern might yield some nice convective activity (8-10th) but the growing amplitude of the trailing long wave (positively tilted to Madagascar below) has the precursor hallmarks of decent LW.
17-21st one to watch IMO.
Screen Shot 2020-04-30 at 9.38.25 pm.png


Supported also by a forging IO tropical atmosphere. The MJO go around is due back (right where it is right now) by mid May, with a Rossby Wave signal fronting the push.
rrwt-4650-sh-gph.png
Showing on deterministics this AM:
gfs_z500a_aus_58.png
 

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