Mega Thread The Autumn Alpine Ground Cooling Thread

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Mar 1, 2020.

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  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Note a nice deep amplitude system peaking to the West of (SW) WA today. This shortwave frontal system is putting snow down to ~600m ASL on the same latitude as Melbourne, tomorrow. Albeit well west of WA in the IO.


    A follow-up system is due to offer the Bluff Knoll it's first chance of snowfall this year in the early hours of Wednesday AM. Snow down to ~1000m is possible IMO.
     
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  2. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    ECMWF SEAS 5 monthly data comes out on Wed. Hopefuly its a juicy one.
     
  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well.. that was a fun April.

    APR MSLP Anom for Aus
    \

    I bet Tas has felt like it's had the shortest Summer Season with the SSW event of last season.
    Nov 2019:
     
  4. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    One of my favourite charts is back for the SH season. But it doesn't look good going forward, with a consolidation of the stratospheric polar vortex in progress, as we march towards winter.


    It is May though.
     
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  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Run the 12z GFS if want a bit a laugh/cry this morning.
    Racked, stacked, back to back winter systems.
     
  6. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Oh the humanity
     
  7. WarrandyteWX

    WarrandyteWX One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Murphy's Law always said that we'd have a bumper year whilst in our current state.
    Thank the lord for webcams and those willing to get out there "for the team".
     
  8. LibertyTS

    LibertyTS Hard Yards Ski Pass: Gold

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    We got some exercise in yesterday:



    What a beautiful sight. The missus remarked that I am like a little kid the second I can see the white stuff. Oh, and again the first time it "accidentally" went down her shirt... :whistle:
     
  9. LibertyTS

    LibertyTS Hard Yards Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking more into the future. Have we started looking at 15-17 May? Bit far out yes, but GFS is showing 5 to 20cm on the Main Range, Tassie a little more. 3 weeks in a row... can we really be that lucky?

     
  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, that ones been there a few days on Ensembles HERE. Still got a bit to get through in the next week for it to look anything remotely 'promising' (17th-19th).
     
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  11. LibertyTS

    LibertyTS Hard Yards Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thanks mate! Sorry, apparently I missed the entire 5th page!? Absolutely, we have a little more time before it's a "thing". Seeing the white stuff for the first time in the season has the tunnel vision going. Hahaha
     
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  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    7 of the 11 GFS Ensemble members now going for neutral/neg-neutral AAO outlook for the next fortnight.
     
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  13. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    GEFS doesn't mind it, but EPS and GEPS both want ridges. Not nearly as a shining signal as the recent storm or even the 9-11th May system.

    Mind you, it does look better on the GFS LWT charts this morning.
     
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  14. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Some stunning photos of the VIC high country here:

     
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  15. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Views like these cement why, in time, we will have a property out in this part of VIC :emoji_blue_heart:

     
  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    As long as the other half agrees!;)
     
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  17. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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  18. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    looking pretty good on the sat image for today

     
  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's hanging in there!
     
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  20. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    SEAS 5 output looking not too shabby for May imo. Some Meridonial Alpine focus on the Alps and the odd ECL would be fine with me
     
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  21. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ok here we go for real.
    Anywhere from the 19th to the 24th, maybe 25th even looks interesting. Has been pushed back a bit, so maybe some more pushbacks could be expected. But there could be something here.

    LWT over SE Australia on the 20th-23rd per GFS, and focus should be on the backend.

     
  22. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not that this is looks amazing long term.


    The GFS has had a trend where it forecasts positive in the long term, and slowly pans to the negative side as it gets closer as of recent. But this trend could end at any moment, so take care.
    That strengthening SPV is nothing to be laughed at.
     
  23. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    GFS atm going with another /vcold system on the 14th.



    -315K = polar air temp in the upper air temp parcel.
     
  24. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I love it the way it is, but photos like this or of Lake Jindabyne looking across to the mtns leave me wondering what I would be like if we were like Japan with a large landmass on the Southern Ocean side of us giving winter snowlines down to the valley floors.
     
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  25. Onlybackscratchers

    Onlybackscratchers One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I've often dreamed about making our mountains higher, unfortunately it's not realistically possible. However a mini ice age and a 600m drop in snowline, mmm!
    I think Thredbo could be a winner, treeline now at village level. However Perisher may have to change their name to Perished. LOL

    Sorry, off thread.
     
  26. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    A 600m drop in snowline would do it! Bring the entire Thredbo Valley from Bullocks Flats and up into play for skiable snow pack and do much the same for the Kiewa from about Bogong Village and up....... not to mention Tasmania - with the precipitation levels down there the snowfall would be monumental by Oz standards.
     
  27. Adaminaby Angler

    Adaminaby Angler One of Us

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    Not just by OZ standards, but by global standards.

    We already get those 1+ m snowstorms on the New South Welsh/Victorian Alps, despite our average winter temps being significantly milder than many places which get far lesser snowfall (most places in the NH have bone dry winters with fark-all moisture, such as Minneapolis whose annual snowfall is barely over a metre). Aussie has very wet winters compared to most places, thanks to the Southern Ocean—the best ocean on Earth. Just a bit of cold air, and we score big time.
     
  28. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Latest GFS has that little cutoff system hanging around for several days from next wednesday. Trying to get a work window in down in the mountains next week and its proving difficult.
     
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  29. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep, we would not need a 600m drop in snowlines for big snow. Like you say plenty of precip and so much of the non snow variety comes at <2C in resorts/alpine areas. I can't help but think even a ~300m drop in snowline would see quite substantial snowfall amounts in alpine areas most winters (even if only over a short season compared to the NH).

    To me Tahoe has always been the most comparable area winter weather wise to us from major overseas ski destinations (Tasmania excluded), with a similar variation in snow patterns including seeing much of our snowpack from a few very snowy major systems but with less consistency. Being close to the border of the high/low pressure belts both see periods of dry if the highs become too dominant. Australia just has substantial rain added into the mix due to lower elevation.
     
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  30. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Whats the experts thoughts on this system image from ECMWF 16th may, GFS 00z is cooking it from may 19 -22nd as of now

     
  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    17-21st May has been of interest to me for 4-5 days now. LWT still on track for this date bracket.

    I don't think that 16th system in the bight will do much good for us in the SE as it's pegged as an early riser; influencing more WA/SA - usually spelling NW Cloud Band moisture feed.

    I am interested to see the succeeding system but lets get Saturday's system out of the way and then take closer look.
     
  32. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    You can see the more erratic GFS version of it clear the way for whatever comes next.

    The key is to get something to clear the way.
     
  33. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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  34. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    15th is looking very flukey IMO.
     
  35. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Selfish like. I have 2 weeks off starting 16 May and often surf closely follows snow weather on the south coast. Having said that I've been following the long range models all week and while I don't have your forecasting skill they've seemed a bit all over the shop to me. But there does appear to be a LWT pushing up over the SE at some point.
     
  36. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    The distinct Meridonial flow @ circa 100 - 60 East starts ramping up on the 13th ( prior to this plot) and changes briskly.. How this progresses will play a big part in what we end up with. Something to watch imo.
     
  37. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    GFS 06Z with the cold trough passing over tassie 13-14th. Cold air also passing over vic se corner. Something to keep a eye on atm.


     
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  38. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Reasonable amount of Vort on that too.
     
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  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just add moisture.
     
  40. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    GFS has gone all Coriolosis over West on 17th
     
  41. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Been thinking looking @ that plot. Maybe there willbe a occlusion and (strat mixing warmer air @300mb) with that trough. That,s basically why i say watch.

    @Kletterer yes rossby wave trough in the upper tropo usually have vorticity maxima

    Just a interesting feature to me i guess.
     
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  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Since the last weekend we're wallowing in very little low level thermal gain. And to nil surprise.
    I am very eager to see how the models perform over the next week, particularly in support of any low-level development througout our region.
     
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  43. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  44. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    12 Hours later on latest run
     
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  45. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    20th May in our sights (GFS).
    Big signal.
    [​IMG]
     
  46. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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  47. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    In line with expectations, it is pushing back to be more like 20th-24th May on EPS.
    Still a big signal.
     
  48. Frisko

    Frisko Hard Yards

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    GFS at the bottom of the garden..
     
  49. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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  50. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS 18z. LR progging has enough winter spice to start the season 2x over.

    17-23 May
     
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