Mega Thread The Autumn Alpine Ground Cooling Thread

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POW Hungry

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Note a nice deep amplitude system peaking to the West of (SW) WA today. This shortwave frontal system is putting snow down to ~600m ASL on the same latitude as Melbourne, tomorrow. Albeit well west of WA in the IO.
upload_2020-5-3_11-57-18.png


A follow-up system is due to offer the Bluff Knoll it's first chance of snowfall this year in the early hours of Wednesday AM. Snow down to ~1000m is possible IMO.
 

Jellybeans

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One of my favourite charts is back for the SH season. But it doesn't look good going forward, with a consolidation of the stratospheric polar vortex in progress, as we march towards winter.
gfs_sh-samindex_20200502.png


It is May though.
 

LibertyTS

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Yeah, that ones been there a few days on Ensembles HERE. Still got a bit to get through in the next week for it to look anything remotely 'promising' (17th-19th).

Thanks mate! Sorry, apparently I missed the entire 5th page!? Absolutely, we have a little more time before it's a "thing". Seeing the white stuff for the first time in the season has the tunnel vision going. Hahaha
 

Jellybeans

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Yeah, that ones been there a few days on Ensembles HERE. Still got a bit to get through in the next week for it to look anything remotely 'promising' (17th-19th).
GEFS doesn't mind it, but EPS and GEPS both want ridges. Not nearly as a shining signal as the recent storm or even the 9-11th May system.

Mind you, it does look better on the GFS LWT charts this morning.
 
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Jellybeans

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Ok here we go for real.
Anywhere from the 19th to the 24th, maybe 25th even looks interesting. Has been pushed back a bit, so maybe some more pushbacks could be expected. But there could be something here.

LWT over SE Australia on the 20th-23rd per GFS, and focus should be on the backend.
AFCD70B3-CAE7-4DFE-A8CF-DADA8B491862.png

106EF4E7-F920-446A-9973-BA5A354E4689.png
 

Jellybeans

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Ok here we go for real.
Anywhere from the 19th to the 24th, maybe 25th even looks interesting. Has been pushed back a bit, so maybe some more pushbacks could be expected. But there could be something here.

LWT over SE Australia on the 20th-23rd per GFS, and focus should be on the backend.
AFCD70B3-CAE7-4DFE-A8CF-DADA8B491862.png

106EF4E7-F920-446A-9973-BA5A354E4689.png
Not that this is looks amazing long term.
C7E08F9C-C31A-4E9F-8009-4937B1AA173D.png


The GFS has had a trend where it forecasts positive in the long term, and slowly pans to the negative side as it gets closer as of recent. But this trend could end at any moment, so take care.
That strengthening SPV is nothing to be laughed at.
 

BlueHue

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Views like these cement why, in time, we will have a property out in this part of VIC :emoji_blue_heart:

I love it the way it is, but photos like this or of Lake Jindabyne looking across to the mtns leave me wondering what I would be like if we were like Japan with a large landmass on the Southern Ocean side of us giving winter snowlines down to the valley floors.
 
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Onlybackscratchers

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I love it the way it is, but photos like this or of Lake Jindabyne looking across to the mtns leave me wondering what I would be like if we were like Japan with a large landmass on the Southern Ocean side of us giving winter snowlines down to the valley floors.
I've often dreamed about making our mountains higher, unfortunately it's not realistically possible. However a mini ice age and a 600m drop in snowline, mmm!
I think Thredbo could be a winner, treeline now at village level. However Perisher may have to change their name to Perished. LOL

Sorry, off thread.
 

BlueHue

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I've often dreamed about making our mountains higher, unfortunately it's not realistically possible. However a mini ice age and a 600m drop in snowline, mmm!
I think Thredbo could be a winner, treeline now at village level. However Perisher may have to change their name to Perished. LOL

Sorry, off thread.
A 600m drop in snowline would do it! Bring the entire Thredbo Valley from Bullocks Flats and up into play for skiable snow pack and do much the same for the Kiewa from about Bogong Village and up....... not to mention Tasmania - with the precipitation levels down there the snowfall would be monumental by Oz standards.
 
A 600m drop in snowline would do it! Bring the entire Thredbo Valley from Bullocks Flats and up into play for skiable snow pack and do much the same for the Kiewa from about Bogong Village and up....... not to mention Tasmania - with the precipitation levels down there the snowfall would be monumental by Oz standards.
Not just by OZ standards, but by global standards.

We already get those 1+ m snowstorms on the New South Welsh/Victorian Alps, despite our average winter temps being significantly milder than many places which get far lesser snowfall (most places in the NH have bone dry winters with fark-all moisture, such as Minneapolis whose annual snowfall is barely over a metre). Aussie has very wet winters compared to most places, thanks to the Southern Ocean—the best ocean on Earth. Just a bit of cold air, and we score big time.
 

Snow Blowey

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Latest GFS has that little cutoff system hanging around for several days from next wednesday. Trying to get a work window in down in the mountains next week and its proving difficult.
 
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BlueHue

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Not just by OZ standards, but by global standards.

We already get those 1+ m snowstorms on the New South Welsh/Victorian Alps, despite our average winter temps being significantly milder than many places which get far lesser snowfall (most places in the NH have bone dry winters with fark-all moisture, such as Minneapolis whose annual snowfall is barely over a metre). Aussie has very wet winters compared to most places, thanks to the Southern Ocean—the best ocean on Earth. Just a bit of cold air, and we score big time.
Yep, we would not need a 600m drop in snowlines for big snow. Like you say plenty of precip and so much of the non snow variety comes at <2C in resorts/alpine areas. I can't help but think even a ~300m drop in snowline would see quite substantial snowfall amounts in alpine areas most winters (even if only over a short season compared to the NH).

To me Tahoe has always been the most comparable area winter weather wise to us from major overseas ski destinations (Tasmania excluded), with a similar variation in snow patterns including seeing much of our snowpack from a few very snowy major systems but with less consistency. Being close to the border of the high/low pressure belts both see periods of dry if the highs become too dominant. Australia just has substantial rain added into the mix due to lower elevation.
 
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POW Hungry

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17-21st May has been of interest to me for 4-5 days now. LWT still on track for this date bracket.

I don't think that 16th system in the bight will do much good for us in the SE as it's pegged as an early riser; influencing more WA/SA - usually spelling NW Cloud Band moisture feed.

I am interested to see the succeeding system but lets get Saturday's system out of the way and then take closer look.
 

Belly

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17-21st May has been of interest to me for 4-5 days now. LWT still on track for this date bracket.

I don't think that 16th system in the bight will do much good for us in the SE as it's pegged as an early riser; influencing more WA/SA - usually spelling NW Cloud Band moisture feed.

I am interested to see the succeeding system but lets get Saturday's system out of the way and then take closer look.
Selfish like. I have 2 weeks off starting 16 May and often surf closely follows snow weather on the south coast. Having said that I've been following the long range models all week and while I don't have your forecasting skill they've seemed a bit all over the shop to me. But there does appear to be a LWT pushing up over the SE at some point.
 

POW Hungry

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Been thinking looking @ that plot. Maybe there willbe a occlusion and (strat mixing warmer air @300mb) with that trough. That,s basically why i say watch.

@Kletterer yes rossby wave trough in the upper tropo usually have vorticity maxima

Just a interesting feature to me i guess.
Since the last weekend we're wallowing in very little low level thermal gain. And to nil surprise.
I am very eager to see how the models perform over the next week, particularly in support of any low-level development througout our region.
 
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Kletterer

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The distinct Meridonial flow @ circa 100 - 60 East starts ramping up on the 13th ( prior to this plot) and changes briskly.. How this progresses will play a big part in what we end up with. Something to watch imo.
250v_anom_86.png
12 Hours later on latest run
250v_anom_85.png
 
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