Mega Thread The Autumn Alpine Ground Cooling Thread

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Mar 1, 2020.

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  1. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS gives us this random system on the 17th.

    I struggle to see that happening, with that ridge.


    EC calls the 17th node, a WA peaker and then ridged south out of SE Australia’s way.
    Regardless whatever happens next, needs to be strong.

    EPS continues to be keen for 20th-24th of May.
     
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  2. Jacko4650

    Jacko4650 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Ground cooling recommenced:
     
  3. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    GFS 3 hourly plots
     
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  4. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Tasmanian special.
     
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  5. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Unicorn @ 672 hours :D
     
  6. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Well that little anom that @stormkite2000 mentioned regarding 17th is getting some GFS attention
     
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  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    We wouldn't mind a cradling high at this time of year. A very fluid set-up at the moment.

    17th system looking bitterly cold.
     
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  8. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    A fair bit of change in output lately though. Being early May do you think perhaps seasonal data sets/ assimilations are struggling with increased Dynamic Tropopause PV Anoms ?
     
  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think they’re fairing quite well for our region actually.
     
  10. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC ridges out the 17th again.

    Will GFS or EC get out of the divergence first?
    All the ensembles are with EC at this point.
     
  11. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not to say the 20th as a date doesn’t have merit, but it’s not gonna happen like that.
     
  12. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Looking at the S Hemi / Arctic plots over the last 3 days, i do think GFS is struggling a tad imo.
     
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  13. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think it’s struggling quite a bit personally. Quite messy.
     
  14. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    And why i never hang long. Same old same old.
     
  15. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Well around this time last year we had more blocking events and its fairing ok atm.
     
  16. Vandans

    Vandans Addicted

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    I came to live in the ACT in November 1967. This is shaping up the be an exact replica of 1968. Dry record heat summer and April May snow events. 18 and 25 May set up a very very good year. What has occurred to date is exactly in line with April May of 1968 . And Btw early June 1968 was a bit lean then it came and came . Let’s hope so.
     
  17. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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  18. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Give us Mexicans some out of season/Pre season snow forecasting we can utilize in person . I am watching with interest.

    We might be allowed out to play as of next week :).
    Any system that brings 10 cm+ of snow outside of the ski season for some rock hopping is alright with me.

    Any system that brings 25-50 cms of snow is ideal anytime really!!
     
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  19. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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  20. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    That was a fun little system for southern vic(and nsw to a certain extent).

    What’s next on the menu?
     
  21. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    My question to the weather watchers is what is next?. We Mexicans here below the Border might be allowed out and be permitted to XC /BC ski some of this good stuff quite soon.
     
  22. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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  23. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Maybe something little on Wednesday.
    A chance of something little on the 17th.
    But what you are looking for is the 20th-24th of May period.
     
  24. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    doogasnow gem-all-shemi-z500_anom-9652000.png gem-all-shemi-vort500_z500-9641200.png
    Maybe a something @13th iffy. With that upper-level low cutoff over nsw.. As before 17th is of interest for me.






     
  25. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Some wow factor . Fabulously undulating Tropo with a Steep PV wall. Tropo plot at bottom is a few hours later
     
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  26. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Yeah looks very nice those plots above. Like to see more consensus with the 20th time frames. Still to early for ukmet @That time frame.
    gfs-deterministic-aus-z500_anom-9997600 (1).png gem-all-aus-z500_anom-9889600.png


    Big distance from 12z. Maybe around the 15th this 20th date will be well sorted by global models.
     
  27. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    OK , I got it. May 22-24th. I am planning to XC ski somewhere then. I will hope we here in VIC. will be allowed out to play !!.I am watching this carefully :).
     
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  28. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    GFS00Z 500mb temps/ 700mb + thickness forecast run atm for @the 17th.
    gfs-deterministic-aus-thck_1000-500-9716800.png

    gfs-deterministic-aus-t500-9716800.png


    gfs-deterministic-aus-t700-9716800.png
     
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  29. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    EC 00Z @17TH. thickness + upper temps. A clipper on the run.
    ecmwf-deterministic-aus-thck_1000-500-9695200.png ecmwf-deterministic-aus-t500-9695200.png ecmwf-deterministic-aus-t700-9695200.png




     
  30. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    OOZ EC/GFS/CMC @20TH atm.
    ecmwf-deterministic-shemi-thck_1000-500-9932800.png gfs-deterministic-shemi-thck_1000-500-9932800.png gem-all-shemi-thck_1000-500-9932800.png Just for future ref:to compare in a weeks time.
     
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  31. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Interesting watching these upcoming systems eb and flow over the next ten days or so.
    So we have potentially 3 systems over the next 10 days or so?
     
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  32. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Kind of. The first two are likely to be 5-10cm or similar clipper style systems. So not really meaningful at this time of year. The jury is still out on the 20th, but it is looking better and better.

    EC/EPS seem to be pushing the idea of a push back of a day or two towards the 21st/22nd, but the ensembles have been showing this anomaly consistently, so it looks good.
     
  33. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    You can see in the final frame of EC today, that there might be something just behind this lesser
    clipper system on the 20th, and it could leapfrog over it on the 21st and 22nd, and provide something quite substantial. But we have to wait and watch for a few more days.
     
  34. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    EC00z ensemble mean control run. It's pretty much what to expect from the model @ this time frame without international aircraft data sensa feeds 24/7. The hires model not the wmo ec showed the thickness in the shem model. just clipping lower vic barely.
    ecmwf-ensemble-avg-aus-mslp-1589068800-1589911200-1590364800-40.gif



    EC WMO DETERMINISTIC
     
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  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Have wondered recently the impacts on data assimilation by reduced aircraft input. I expect that global models would rationalise and play it safe? It would be interesting to know what downstream affects there are to model skill etc.
     
  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  37. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    All sorts of weirdness in GFS's run-to-run variability today.
    EC on a believable even-keel for now.

    I am not game enough to comment on anything beyond 7 days, right now.
     
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  38. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Doesn’t sound like to strong a front for Tuesday/Wednesday for vic anyway, full blown clipper. But gfs update tonight looks good for the weekend imo
     
  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ya reckon?o_O
     
  40. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Maybe not on a broader scale, but thought it looked ok for southern mountain vic? ;)
    Having said that I’d probably go off your and others judgment over mine lol
     
  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not much in it IMO.
     
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  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    22/23rd for the bold and brave amongst us.
    EPS:


    Access G3:
     
  43. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Agree pow very brave atm. Would not bet a sheep station on those EPS/ACCESS plots above. Or one dollar atm.





     
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  44. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Are those above charts good or bad storm?
     
  45. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Positive is the wrong direction. Around -1 forecast is what you would be normally wanting.
    .........................................................................................................................................


    Bom
    The changing position of the westerly wind belt influences the strength and position of cold fronts and mid-latitude storm systems, and is an important driver of rainfall variability in southern Australia.

    In a positive SAM event, the belt of strong westerly winds contracts towards Antarctica. This results in weaker than normal westerly winds and higher pressures over southern Australia, restricting the penetration of cold fronts inland.



    Conversely, a negative SAM event reflects an expansion of the belt of strong westerly winds towards the equator. This shift in the westerly winds results in more (or stronger) storms and low pressure systems over southern Australia. During autumn and winter, a positive SAM value can mean cold fronts and storms are farther south, and hence southern Australia generally misses out on rainfall. However, in spring and summer, a strong positive SAM can mean that southern Australia is influenced by the northern half of high pressure systems, and hence there are more easterly winds bringing moist air from the Tasman Sea. This increased moisture can turn to rain as the winds hit the coast and the Great Dividing Range.
     
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  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    22/23rd May.

    EC, The Canuck & Access G3 now in support of each other here. Just need some run-to-run trend now.
    It's got my cautious attention.
    [​IMG]

    The Canuck:
    [​IMG]
     
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  47. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Actually looking quite large on EC Ensembles this evening.
     
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  48. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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  49. Cam Slee

    Cam Slee One of Us

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    I've got a better Autumn ground cooling signal.
    Just look outside my lounge room and see this.
    The Big Fella, Mt Bogong last weekend.
     
  50. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks sweet.
     
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