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Mega Thread The Autumn Alpine Ground Cooling Thread

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Mar 1, 2020.

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  1. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Decent agreement with the bom 4 day and the aao mean.






    As far as know the bom4 day mslp is or was based ec data. Feel free to correct if that's wrong.
     
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  2. Gototakahashi

    Gototakahashi Hard Yards

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    This Autumn has had the perfect pre-season weather for the ski resorts. Next week has cold nights which would have been perfect for snowmaking. Too bad it can’t be utilised.
    It honestly feels like mid-June in Melbourne at the moment.
     
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  3. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Chairman Dan has given us Mexicans the go ahead for day trips out of town including XC skiing and surfing. I am feeling better already about any skiable snow that will fall this month . :)
     
  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    yep, modelled off EC.
     
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  5. Homer

    Homer One of Us

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    Thank god for Dan and his decision.
    It may now prevent you from mentioning in every single post that you have been restricted and can't go X-Country skiing.
     
  6. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Yes, Thank Chairman Dan for small mercies indeed ;-P
    I still wish I could have skied at somewhere like Dinner Plain on May 2-3 2020. It looked AMAZING!!!
    Now I must endlessly complain that we cannot be permitted to go snow camping or stay overnight at a friend's house near the snow !!.
     
  7. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Please don’t complain anymore, take what you get.
     
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  8. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    EC deterministic see's this on that 00z run.
    ecmwf-deterministic-aus-thck_1000-500-0019200 (1).png
     
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  9. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    In other news, there might be something from the 29th of May to the 3rd June, as per LWT modelling.


    Looking at the wave southeast of Madagascar
     
  10. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    How nice that would be to fall inline with my 1 year proposal anniversary up at Falls creek.

    If only times were different. Such is life.:)
     
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  11. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    I was joking.
     
  12. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    That was the 12z ec run.











    ATM the last week (4) tanking. Looking better on sam forecasts atm.
     
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  13. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    #363 Mister Tee on XC Skis, May 12, 2020
    Last edited: May 12, 2020
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  14. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    The 12 EPS ens prob run was marginal for the required heights to reach the lower se mainland. That may change. Just keep watching atm. Until there is consensus with all global models.




    12Z CMC run.


    CMC @21- 12z was cutoff for WA.




    GFS Cutoff a few hundred k's further east.








    Look back in after the 15th. Leave to to the guru's from now till then.
     
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  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    That GFS/Canuck cold core low looks like a doozey for the SW.
    Worth watching.
     
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  16. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Yeah on that plot decent moisture stream also from the NW feeding. MJO + EQUATORIAL R/W








     
    #366 stormkite2000, May 12, 2020
    Last edited: May 12, 2020
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  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    A bit of 'super positioning' over Maritime Cont aswell.
     
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  18. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    "guru" is an ancient Sanskrit word from India that means " Dispeller of darkness". .
     
  19. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS 00z keeps the WA peaker theme.
     
  20. teleroo

    teleroo Ignored Member Ski Pass: Gold

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    Leaving aside frontal activity, shaping up like a bit of a good week for snow making with sub-zero minimums forecast for PV etc by BOM. Not heaps cold, but seeing dem guns blazing would lift the spririts. Half a natural base there already to build upon.
     
  21. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    ooz ec Big shift west running to cmc /gfs 20th. Over 3000 kms shift in 12 hrs.




    Previous ec 12z 20th
     
  22. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Oh well. Looks kind of bizarre.
    Will be interesting to see if it holds.
     
  23. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    The ensembles have pushed towards a WA trough as well.
     
  24. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    I know it’s only accessg, but it seems a lot more logical progression imo
     
  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It’s not surprising the WA trough is taking precedence given the MJO position in a week or so.
     
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  26. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Things change don’t they lol hopefully it comes back more in line with what it was a few days back
     
  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    ENSO Wrap issued tonight from BOM, here:
    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
     
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  28. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Can really see that KW & MJO Influence on the first week of May:
    [​IMG]
     
  29. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    So is the rest of May looking a little quieter weather wise than we first thought? Or still a good chance to see something decent over the next couple of weeks or so
     
  30. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    On another note AAO always goes neg with mjo about .
     
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  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bearing in mind that the forecasted pass is relatively ‘inactive’ obver the next fortnight.

    EC ensembles showing a more ‘active’ MJO phase but the member variability looks broader than GEFS.
     
  32. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    GFS got it there in roughly 8-9 days @21 3rd row down.

     
  33. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 12z is bringing the 21st node back towards SE Australia.
     
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  34. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah that latitudinal 'drift' Eastwards on EC is a bit of a concern IMO.
    Increased chance of warm air advection and NW moisture interplay.
    [​IMG]
     
  35. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hopefully it’s not a preview for the season ahead.
     
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  36. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS 18z looks much better, with a colder basis in the back half.
    Let’s hope this continues to improve.
     
  37. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Very similar to the event at the start of the Month.

    Way to cutoff and disconnected from the cold pool. Thats what I thought prior to May 2020. I am looking at this and thinking 2 ft TM now.
     
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  38. WarrandyteWX

    WarrandyteWX One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    If we see more of these lows passing thru Bass Strait this "season", there will be no beach left down at Inverloch & Venus Bay.
    Also the 12 Apostles will lose a few more soldiers...
     
  39. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    That 12z ec was showing a developing upper-level cyclone. If the models keep a feature like this tracking east and overland there will be very interesting weather for many. Including blizzards for the alps.




    .
     
  40. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks a bit snowy .....Autumn ground cooling.....

     
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  41. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    ooz GFS pre cold snap clipping albany Uppers temp.




    Developing upper-level cyclonic features in the GAB.




    Meanders in the GAB almost stalling.


    Bringing weather to SA @23rd.






    Tracking SE into VIC.


    Starts moving quick on the 23 on the run.


    23-24 the anomaly is eye candy.





    Weather for many.
     
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  42. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks mostly wet for the Alps.
    But great if you are into Bluff Knoll snow.
     
  43. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Compared to whatever that was from GFS.
    GEM/CMC has a proper cold front system for the SE.
     
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  44. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Canuck 00z Part of a complex low. lower se states @20th.





     
  45. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    I’ve got no idea what’s going to eventuate with the above system lol
    Rapid change all over the place
     
  46. teleroo

    teleroo Ignored Member Ski Pass: Gold

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    What does the cyclonic relative vorticity tell you? I'm guessing the kind of spinny-ness around a low pressure system as opposed to "straighter" airflow associated with stabler conditions? In which case it gives you a "map" of the spatial extent of a low pressure system?
     
  47. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Getting more stable by the day imo, I reckon end of next week looking pretty good for some sort of substantive cold front action.
     
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  48. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    00Z EC came in @20th Upper level low/cyclone 997mb closed isobar.



     
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  49. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Goes east over tassie on the run.

     
    #399 stormkite2000, May 13, 2020
    Last edited: May 13, 2020
  50. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cut off in the Bight removes any certainty on SE influence.
    Looks more bad news than it's worth IMO, other than good for some farmers.

    I reckon UKMO & ICON (and partly The Canuck) has this one pegged with a good 'piggy-baking' frontal progression 20/21st May.
     
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