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Mega Thread The Autumn Alpine Ground Cooling Thread

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Mar 1, 2020.

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  1. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    download (1).png


    Have not seen anything past this range on the met. Looks cutoff @19th.

    I like a punt on the weather. Chucking few $$$ @ the GFS solution with the low going into SA first.
     
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  2. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    o_OBe perfect if that low could dig in, say just west of vic and spin up a decent front from Deep South and sling shot it across the south east
     
  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, one behind it (front highlighted in blue), due 21/22nd. Just a hunch nothing more on UKMET.
     
  4. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    06z GFS temps 500mb-700mb

     
  5. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    ..........................................................................................................................................................
    GFS

     
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  6. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Dubious, word of the day :)
     
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  7. _Yossarian_

    _Yossarian_ One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    All the planet's seasonal forecasting models are in agreement that it's going to be a wet winter in the South East.

    Precipitation is not going to be a problem.

    We just need the precipitation to be accompanied with cold air.
     
  8. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    And hopefully not a repeat of 2016 #lakeperisher
     
  9. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yesterday and today have been bone chilling cold, even I put a long sleeved top on, i have got through the last few winters with a fleece vest at worst.
     
  10. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Friends who lives in the nsw southern highlands have been having to lite up their fire place overnight lately.
     
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  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM just released their Climatic Outlook:
    Doesn't necessarily mean 'Rain' but moisture will be helpful for the snow pack accumulation.
     
  12. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Alpine aside, it's nice to see the country bathed in blue and green for once
     
  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  14. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Going to need a bigger Ark
     
  15. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like a WA peaker event, but still worth a bit of a watch.
     
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  16. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    And we are now heading into a +AAO period over the next two weeks at least, and probably into June. Just as well the resorts can’t open yet anyway.


    Strong teleconnection between the stratosphere and troposphere on this.
     
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  17. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Quite a busy little Southern Hemi on the 23rd . Click to enlarge
     
  18. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    31st May-2nd June, the next rabbit in the hat
    Well supported by GFS.
     
  20. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    The big fish at this range agrees. Has done for a week. Could be a WA/SA peaker, but there might be something there hidden.


    This might go a long way in making this more optimistic:
     
  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Strong subsiding system ahead of the 31st seen on EC’s deterministic this morning.
    This one is more likely to influence WA, more so than The SE but the trailing slingshotting system should have the SE’s name on it IMO.
     
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  22. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC striking a neutral tone. Better than being stuck in the positives.
     
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  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC Ensembles:


    Determs:
     
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  24. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    I have come to the conclusion that GFS is actually a Gorgeous Fsychopath Synopsis. Oh it must be American. LOL. Must never be found to be boring.

    An order run but I just love her imagination.

    [​IMG]
     
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  25. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    An ECL.
    It's that time of the year.
    For GFS.
     
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  26. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    If it pushes up, then we are talking.
     
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  27. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    As we sit now, is the system progged to push up over the south east? Or we still bit far out for that info.

    Looks like one of those clip type systems where it might just get kept south ? Sure am hopeful tho that it pushes through
     
  28. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Its certainly cold .
     
  29. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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  30. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    spin up the machines.
     
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  31. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Decent cold front there for tassie atm on model.
     
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  32. rowdyflat

    rowdyflat One of Us Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Definitely the IOD has changed . Will be wet winter for NE Vic surely ?
     
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  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Regardless of what the IOD is doing (you need to two regions in dipole) the Indo region of the Maritime Cont is cooking warm (+SSTAs). It's been that way for a good 4-6 weeks now.
    Yes, there are indications of a -'ve IOD leading to a wetter for continental Aus in general.
     
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  34. Jacko4650

    Jacko4650 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Couldn't see an Obs thread for this system. It has started - Dinner Plain:
     
  35. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Here
     
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  36. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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  37. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well I guess this thread only has a short time to run before Winter. So popping this here......

    The last 4 days have been interesting if uneventful! Cold, windy, ongoing light mizzle and very little sun. unusual to have 4 consecutive days like this.

    7mm rain in the guage and most of what has landed on the mountain has been little better unfortunately. A net loss on the slopes IMO.

    End of month hopefully brings snow up the hill and moisture across our paddocks.

    Looking towards the lake and Jindabyne.



    Looking SW from circa 1100 ASL.



    Across to the mountains - obscured.

     
  38. Interruptedbyfireworks

    Interruptedbyfireworks One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I am getting very excited about the possible snowfalls this weekend :woohoo:

    Must. Focus. On. Work. so that I can take flex and see the snow when it comes back!
     
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  39. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm over this half arsed weather. Cold, damp and dank with no useful snow. I say let it either snow properly or bring on some nice autumn sunshine I say! Love frosty mornings followed by basking in 15C sunshine, love a proper snow storm even more. If I wanted this kind of weather I'd go live in England.
     
  40. Adaminaby Angler

    Adaminaby Angler One of Us

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    Strewth, it's not the right kind of cold and damp.

    No useful rain, no snow, not even any wind FFS…bloody borefest!
     
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  41. dogski

    dogski One of Us

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    Try livin up here.Excitement weather not even close:(
     
  42. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Beautiful shot of Mt Beauty and the hills beyond:

     
  43. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    Lol... imagine posting that back in January.
     
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  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  45. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    Clutching at straws here.

    Something on the horizon if that High parks its arse further North?

    Think it's the same one @Kletterer posted above?
     
  46. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Rife with blocking Highs atm.
     
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  47. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    I’d watch the latter half of June for some more long term potential.
     
  48. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    I mean 11th-15th of June per LWT modelling:


    but likely to be under considerable constraint by climatic conditions IMO. Maybe a few days later could work better (per old RRWT).
     
  49. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    bring back the drought - at least it's cold enough to make snow
     
  50. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's only May :). We go on this rollercoaster every year

    Meanwhile in Melbourne, we're actually below average for our daytime temps by a full 1c and 0.1c below average for evening temps (as of this date). For once it seems we'll be below average rather than above
     
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