The Autumn "blocking high" discussion

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Mar 1, 2013.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS now showing < 5mm for this week and EC far less.
    My bet is just a dusting over 1800m for this period.
     
  2. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Would be a good result given the bad potential
     
    #452 The Plowking, May 21, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 13, 2013
  3. BenLomond Iceman

    BenLomond Iceman One of Us

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    i cant see much happening for a couple of weeks! the usual autumn big highs!
     
  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Models certainly don't excite for the next 10 days, that's for sure. Although I think we need to hold fire beyond the weekend as the models aren't all that good beyond 5 days at the moment.
     
  5. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Temps are still nice and low up at 1950M - looks like PV will peak at around 4C at 1750M - that's not bad for a warmer day.
     
  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Dry.

    [​IMG]
     
    #456 Claude Cat, May 21, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  7. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Wollongong, not so much.
     
  8. agentBM

    agentBM Part of the Furniture

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    #458 agentBM, May 21, 2013
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  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Usually doesn't snow there though. [​IMG]
     
    #459 Claude Cat, May 21, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 13, 2013
  10. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Not since 2004..
     
  11. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    #461 Edgecrusher, May 21, 2013
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  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I thought that was just your dandruff? [​IMG]
     
    #462 Claude Cat, May 21, 2013
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  13. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    The home of GFS.
     
    #463 Vermillion, May 21, 2013
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  14. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I see badness June 01. Not good [​IMG] I hope it's gone tomorrow.
     
    #464 Vermillion, May 21, 2013
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  15. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    AXS? GFS is meh, EC not quite in range.
     
  16. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Kiama / Gerringong last year nearly counts (more so hail ??)
     
    #466 nfip, May 21, 2013
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  17. MickM

    MickM One of Us Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Nothing to get exited about for a while by the look of the charts. Doesn't make any difference for Buller but Falls & Hotham may lose any gains too.

    Could change though of course!
     
  18. BenLomond Iceman

    BenLomond Iceman One of Us

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    deja vu happens every year, usually this time of the year! big blocking highs smothering everthing coming up! .. something will pop up out of the chart just is time for june long weekend hopefully
     
  19. nisstrust

    nisstrust One of Us

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    NZ is looking good for mon-wed on access
     
  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    This?

    [​IMG]
    Of course GFS is nothing like it.
     
    #470 Claude Cat, May 22, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 13, 2013
  21. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    That is one serious tropical feed - reminds me of a few events from recent summers past.
     
  22. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah that one. AXS has been pretty good a long way out recently, I hope that changes.
     
  23. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Half a metre for The Saddle at TC according to snow-forecast. Thursday/Friday next week is looking ok at the moment too.
     
    #473 ScottGN, May 23, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 13, 2013
  24. K@os

    K@os A Local

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    Tuesday & Wednesday looking particularly good for both North & South island

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #474 K@os, May 23, 2013
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  25. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I like that darker pink blob right over Lake Wakatipu.
     
  26. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    EC still going for the tropical feed, access and GFS not having any of it will be interesting to see who gets it right.
     
  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    AXS is interesting for the 1st.
    Now suggesting a cold pool over southern NSW and a massive amount of moisture.
    Zero agreement across EC/AXS/GFS so almost certainly the outlook will change.
     
  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Drier on GFS.

    [​IMG]
     
    #478 Claude Cat, May 23, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  29. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    Getting a bit messy here in Sydney. Turned strong easterly and brought some proper falls with it. Currently raining sideways with little bits of hail.

    I thought summer had passed?
     
  30. sbm

    sbm One of Us

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    Wow, where are you? It's clearing in Rockdale with quite a lot of blue sky visible. Barely rained all day here.
     
    #480 sbm, May 23, 2013
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  31. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    patchy blue skies most afternoon in lower bms
     
  32. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    Am in Manly. Was a passing squall, but the breeze has hung around so am expecting a little more. Tried to scoop some little bits of hail up for photos, but they were melting pretty quick and I was getting pretty wet so I girlied-out.
     
    #482 Undies, May 23, 2013
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  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO

    EC says rain first (31st)
    [​IMG]

    Then snow (1st)
    [​IMG]

    GFS for the same period appears to be on drugs and I would disregard.
    AXS is much closer to EC, although there is some weirdness with cut off lows; its also got a slower progression.
     
    #483 Claude Cat, May 23, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  34. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    I reckon EC is on the money given that the AAO is about to dive into the negatives.
     
  35. Portski

    Portski Addicted

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    More than 140mm here in Port Macquarie overnight, and still going.
     
  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC looks solid for 1st & 2nd of June IMO

    [​IMG]
     
    #486 Claude Cat, May 24, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  37. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    GFS and AXS look absolutely rubbish for the next week or so - very slow moving block with no strong cold fronts anywhere to be seen. EC has some precip next weekend but temps too high.
     
  38. BlueMountains

    BlueMountains First Runs

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    Yeah, nothing doing for good cold fronts. The only consolation I have is that sudden changes can occur in the models at this time of the year, so expect the unexpected.

    Sadly, the unexpected is happening less and less in the last decade or more and its more of the same - a frontless scenario. I've never seen such a frontless autumn as this in my life, up here.

    I'm still hopeful for July and August as the SAM, IOD etc are progged to improve for frontal chances.
     
  39. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    What I do like for the maps at the end of the month is the position of the High SW of Perth.
     
  40. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    00Z GFS today is a big turnaround. Seriously heavy rain along the ranges (some snow too) with a strong cold front and low in Bass Strait this time next weekend. AXS ramps up the rainfall (warmer airmass than GFS). Will be interesting to see what EC comes through with.
     
  41. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    [​IMG]

    Pretty big turnaround, lots of rain before a little snow IMO.
     
    #491 Alfred14, May 25, 2013
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  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC has plenty of moisture. Suspect it might be a tad warm though.

    [​IMG]
     
    #492 Claude Cat, May 25, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013