Mega Thread The Autumn ground cooling thread!

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by DiscoStuAU, Mar 1, 2018.

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  1. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The interesting period. 4 Low pressure centres doing a juggling act. Click image to enlarge. The Low under the Bight is progged to join the Low at NZ rather than the one to its right ( which stalls), with the High Pressure Ridge between it and the Low under South Africa being a key factor in development , as well as the ridge under Tassie. Scales could tip either way IMO.
     
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  2. Zimbooo

    Zimbooo One of Us

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  3. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    saturday night roar

     
    #2303 rocketboy, May 19, 2018
    Last edited: May 20, 2018
  4. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    Not to impressed with the models this morning. Despite the high weekening somewhat still nothing wanting to push up for another week and a bit. Imo
     
  5. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Access g looks really cold and snowy for tas/vic for the end of week, but gfs wants none of it now lol
    Total back flip between the two models compared with this time yesterday imo
     
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  6. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking further ahead some reasonable depth.
     
  7. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    And some moisture in it.Still some probability that 2 Low centres could merge and dance for us IMO.
     
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  8. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well that was a dud - guns ran for a couple of hours at best.

    This sure ain't May 2017. Same dry but much warmer.

    No wonder they are going so hard on fuel reduction this autumn. Next summer could get scary.
     
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  9. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Agree. Its a flip of the coin at the moment. We have 5 highs in the rotation. 2 are strong, 2 are medium and one looks to be weakening. If the 5th dies then it opens up the playing field.

    IF the high just East of SAF maintain its stall for another few days (its already stalled) then the beast low below SAF should overtake it and if the Long wave plays ball the it should slingshot up into the bight.... we are at the turn of the tide.
     
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  10. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    The trough at the bottom left of the attached is what I am tracking. It relies on the Trailing High slowing as it nears WA then setting up a conveyor over the SE Aus.... this low was spawned by a vertically elongated high feeding mass moisture into the system as it reached SAF. The moisture has fed intensity so its packing.

    I'd say its a 33% chance at the moment depending on a few variables... but the odds have shortened from 20% on Friday so if it keeps on track, we should be 50/50 by Thursday. And should hit by Sat to Sunday with multiple follow ups.

     
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  11. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    The Fallen, I agree.

    Something has got to happen with these highs.
     
  12. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Music to my ears my friend .Thanks for the follow up :)
     
  13. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Upper winds show some support for this potential development .
     
  14. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    A bit of snow possible tonight- NSW probably looks better for Mainland . Some mild convergence 950- 850 hPa - tapering off at the 800hPa level so probably just a dusting imo. Temp advection plots showing cold air moving in from aloft briskly afterwards for Tassie ( notably at 600 - 800hPa level)
     
  15. Stephen James Allen

    Stephen James Allen Addicted

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  16. Stephen James Allen

    Stephen James Allen Addicted

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    http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/?lt=wzcountry&lc=aus&mt=gfs&mc=mslp&mso=0&mh=120&focus=mh

    Not sure if this meets the 4 day rule, but might be what ya refer'n to?
     
  17. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Two runs in a row that accessg likes the
    Potential cold snap at the end of week for vic/tas
     
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  18. Secretcookie

    Secretcookie Addicted

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    Coronet guns firing from webcam this morning. Steady rain and freezing level approx 1600m yesterday, remarks/cardrona looked to have picked up 20 or so cm, sleet at coronet. Periods of heavy rain and low freezing level overnight looks to have dropped the snow line, sunrise will reveal more. Big wk ahead for snow from all reports.
     
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  19. Secretcookie

    Secretcookie Addicted

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  20. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Access-G moves the Southerly cold blast eastward into the Tasman for later this week - a near miss. Looks very nice for 30th May though - a classic cold front and winter positioning of the High behind it.
     
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  21. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    NZ this morning
     
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  22. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    Looks like it will be a snow bust for May. Not that im upset. Keep the powder dry for June where its cold enough to keep it around.
     
  23. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    To be honest it's not surprising to have big fat mo fo Highs around this time of year and even into the start of June......I won't be expecting much until late June and anything we do get is a bonus!
     
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  24. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Stuff all snow on Highplains...nothing on BHP Rd.over around Cope Hut.

    Leaving Falls Ck on Sunday 5pm.. foggy and damp.....not looking like snow at all....
    Most snow washed and melted away up there on Ruined Castle....
    Ground is dry up there...
     
  25. Red_switch

    Red_switch Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: 30 Day

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    I prefer this view (click to enlarge):
    [​IMG]
     
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  26. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO not much to see on the 00Z GFS run. Tasmania might catch a bit, but GFS has everything being squashed flat.

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    [​IMG]
     
  27. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    This has been the most boring 2 weeks of my weather watching career, and another 2 weeks of boring watching to come
     
  28. Cuddles

    Cuddles One of Us

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    MM
     

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  29. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    42mm in the strezlecki rangers over the past two days!
    Nice juicy sw flow producing nearly a constant flow of heavy showers over the past 3 days.
    Temps around 9/10c each day with strong sw wind blowing
     
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  30. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Some strange pressure gradient eddy movement ( next few days) down South atm. Some very strong upper level winds also set to disturb the natural East- West flow--- flatenning out the wobble in the wheel so to speak, and Low pressure centres forced to circulate back down South.
     
  31. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Looks like the high has ruined any chance of that potential cold blast I was hopping for at the end of the week :rolleyes:
     
  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    00z EC seems to agree with CMC.

    [​IMG]
     
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  33. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    A small chance around 27-28th but as you can see the group of Lows has high tailed it South and not much potential exitement in the rotation set to follow.
     
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  34. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's May! This always happens.
     
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  35. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think its good that its happening .
    Boring May/ Good snow year.
    Average temps at moment. Its very very normal.
     
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  36. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    U thinking possibility of something good end of may early June going off that chart k?
     
  37. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nothing significant on any of the Models atm imo.
     
  38. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC is hinting at an ECL though .
     
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  39. Ijay

    Ijay Hard Yards Ski Pass: Silver

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    I'm hoping for one to develop, too dry and a bit too warm here on the sapphire coast. Coming up now to the right time of year, fingers crossed.
     
  40. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Had a few beers at a mates place a few paddocks away this arvo...... 5:30pm and it was very mild for this time of the year. The left side of the pic below is generally facing the direction of Perisher. They can see the lights when night skiing is on. Did not feel (yet) like winter is nearing. For now!

     
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  41. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Coronet has all its guns blazing tonight.
     
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  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  43. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC says yes.
     
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  44. kiter

    kiter One of Us

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    Time to plug into this
     
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  45. cin

    cin Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    It’s brewing
    The longer it stalls,....
    IMO!!!!!!!!!
     
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  46. Telemark Phat

    Telemark Phat Pass the butter Ski Pass: Gold

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    If that came off I'd be skiing in the paddock.
     
  47. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    LIke EC for 30 may. Don't like progression into NE heading ECL with warm infeed at the tail again.
     
  48. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    EC sticking

     
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  49. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC as stated looking very nice, with a cutoff to the north on the 30th of May.
    Most of the moisture over the NSW resorts.

    GFS with a coldfront on the 1st of June, two days behind EC.
    Better for VIC, with fruit for NSW too.

    GEM with similar timing to EC, but with a system that looks more like GFS (less troughing though)
     
  50. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    All those charts show a ridge and strong high.
     
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