Mega Thread The Autumn ground cooling thread!

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by DiscoStuAU, Mar 1, 2018.

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  1. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    plenty of time for it to go away.
     
  2. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm gloomcasting a 2013 style end of May rain event for a total washout.
     
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  3. Shrike

    Shrike Addicted

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    Long range forecast I just looked at seems to be pointing to a good dump the weekend before opening weekend. Its alittle far out atm so will keep my eye on it and this thread.

    Fingers crossed as Ill be at either Hotham or Falls depending on who is open and what snow is there
     
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  4. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    still going for mostly grass skiing on the opening weekend.
     
  5. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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  6. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    spag still keen for a change around the 30th 31st
     
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  7. MarkV

    MarkV One of Us

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    Last five days of rainfall at Hernes Oak in the Latrobe Valley; 6.8mm, 7.4mm, 2.0mm, 26.0mm and 20.2mm, for a total of 62.4mm. It was dry here. Not any more!
     
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  8. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Same with EC ensembles, they give perisher 60-70cm over 30th and 31st.
     
  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    CMC still sticking with it
    Not super cold.

    [​IMG]
     
  10. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thats better , cause that surface low will prevent the ridge...
     
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  11. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    hence Yr.no running with it
     
  12. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yr.no is based off determ EC, not eps iirc.
     
  13. Xwing

    Xwing One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    yr.no seem to always over state volume / depth
     
  14. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Cardrona getting dumped on
     
  15. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Cold for the south tomorrow night, minus 5 forecast for Queenstown.
     
  16. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Imagine if there were direct flights from Illawarra Airport to Queenstown.
     
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  17. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    What is the snow level forecast to drop to over the next few days over there?
     
  18. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    I'm right up the top of moe Sth/traf Sth area, can just about see across to Hernes oak. Just got rained off at work and came home to another 22mm since late yesterday arvo in the gauge!
    Currently 10c and low cloud sitting along the top of the ridge along here.
     
  19. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/infographic-big-picture-tuesday-wednesday-13
    300-400 metres at times according to WeatherWatch. Metservice is forecasting sleety showers for Queenstown overnight and into tomorrow morning before a clearance which will bring the very cold overnight lows Wednesday night.
     
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  20. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Queenstown will be lucky to get to 5 degrees tomorrow.
     
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  21. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Any snow for your area?
     
  22. bengarden

    bengarden One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    19 degrees max temps in Canberra 2 days before June early next week is far from average......
     
  23. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Looking out my kitchen window I can see the snow level gradually lowering on the Remarkables. The garden, however, is just really bloody wet at the moment.
     
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  24. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    said the guy who declared a shit season in early June last year and promptly booked flights to NZ...
     
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  25. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Beautiful looking country :thumbs:
    What sort of elevation are u sgn?
     
  26. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Chains are now essential on the Crown Range. QLDC have become much more proactive in flagging this these days. It’s a total pain for the Downer guys who have to rescue the silly buggers who flock up there with no chains.
     
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  27. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I’m about 350 asl.
     
  28. Ramshead

    Ramshead One of Us

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    24 and magnificent in Sydney, going to work outside on the lappie.
     
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  29. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Average long term May maximum for Canberra Airport is 15.6. So only a few degrees above average
    Averages are calculated from a range of values, not 31 days of the average temperature in a row.
     
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  30. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    average by definition suggests that some values will be higher and others will be lower...
     
  31. MarkV

    MarkV One of Us

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    Yep. I've noticed in the past this pattern of moist air coming directly from the south west leads to good falls in the Strzelecki ranges. I don't think the rest of the Latrobe valley or west Gippsland got any where near as much rain.
     
  32. davidg

    davidg Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Canberra AP is currently averaging 17.9c which is only about 0.5c off the May record. Probably not an "average" May in terms of max temps.

    Likewise here in Western Sydney we're sitting about 0.3c off the May record for maximums along with potentially our driest May on record. Id suspect the averages across the ACT and NSW would be above to well above average with some pockets of record warm temps. There is a lot of residual heat left across the interior after an exceptionally long and hot Summer / "Autumn" but the 30th is shaping up nicely across all the models at the moment. That should go some way to clearing it out.
     
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  33. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    So within the previous range of readings? The range of readings that makes up the average.

    I think Donzas earlier comment was that after a warm April and first week of May we've now settled into a typical autumn after the 9 May system pushed the heat away. Has certainly cooled down out at Dubbo since.
     
  34. davidg

    davidg Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    The OP stated "19 degrees max temps in Canberra 2 days before June early next week is far from average......"

    What is the average maximum temp for the 28th of May for Canberra airport? Is it a lot less than 19c? Does that make 19c well above the average? Id say @bengarden 's statement is entirely accurate.

    Even if you look at the month as a whole it has been a very warm May for Canberra on average. The statement then makes sense in both contexts whichever way you choose to approach it.
     
  35. Secretcookie

    Secretcookie Addicted

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    Remarks showing her face late this afternoon, looks to be 30-40cm up high, snowline lowered this afternoon but stayed above 1200 or so m most of the day
     
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  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looking good on GFS 00z

    [​IMG]

    Ridging out on CMC?
    [​IMG]
     
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  37. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    does look good
     
  38. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  39. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Of course 19 is above average. But making a statement that the season is out of whack based on a couple of days maximum temperatures above the monthly average shows a lack of understanding of what an average is.

    Early May was a real anomaly in terms of warm temperatures. The last 3 weeks will be fairly normal.

    The Decile 9 May maximum for May is 19.5 degrees. That mean there's typically 3 days in May that exceed 19.5 degrees. There has been no maximum higher than 19 since the 8 May cold outbreak.

    So Donzas observation that we've settled into typical autumn weather post 8 May system is correct.
     
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  40. davidg

    davidg Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS likes it for the 30th but still looks a bit ridgy on ACCESS, pressure also seems a bit high for much precip.

    EC is going for a massive cut-off/wandering cold pool and then bombing low scenario which doesnt make sense given the position of the high.

    Probably too early to say but somewhere between GFS and ACCESS seems a logical progression to me.
     
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  41. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Certainly feels normal. Now. Before it cooled down it was at Ridic levels.
    Just a tad drier and less cloudy than normal i'd offer.
     
  42. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes it feels really normal now on the south coast - you would almost think it was winter already. for over a week now.

    The temps inland and in the alps are well above average though.
     
  43. davidg

    davidg Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cool so its been above average and the end of the month looks like its going to be well above average, especially being that late in May. Sounds a fair summation.

    EDIT: I thought I might look this up, the record max temp for Canberra Airport on the 28th of May is 19.4c in 1982. So I guess its every chance to break the daily record for that site.
     
  44. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    [​IMG]

    Bullseye Canobolas? @216 hrs...
     
  45. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Yr.no looking good, hope this one sticks :) looks to be a solid 40cm down to 1400m imo

     
  46. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO EC going with it ridged out.

    [​IMG]
     
  47. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Based upon the 00z EC run, I expect that to look much worse after it updates this evening (6pm ish).

    IMO
     
  48. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    This.
    Will disappear
     
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  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    This morning's run.
     
  50. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Could do with some improvement. Similar to last system the axis points are muddled in that middle section- that suggests divergence and the vorticity plots matches this as well. Hopefully parcel movement will improve in our favour in later runs.
     
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