Separate names with a comma.
Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by DiscoStuAU, Mar 1, 2018.
plenty of time for it to go away.
I'm gloomcasting a 2013 style end of May rain event for a total washout.
Long range forecast I just looked at seems to be pointing to a good dump the weekend before opening weekend. Its alittle far out atm so will keep my eye on it and this thread.
Fingers crossed as Ill be at either Hotham or Falls depending on who is open and what snow is there
still going for mostly grass skiing on the opening weekend.
Pray for change
spag still keen for a change around the 30th 31st
Last five days of rainfall at Hernes Oak in the Latrobe Valley; 6.8mm, 7.4mm, 2.0mm, 26.0mm and 20.2mm, for a total of 62.4mm. It was dry here. Not any more!
Same with EC ensembles, they give perisher 60-70cm over 30th and 31st.
CMC still sticking with it
Not super cold.
Thats better , cause that surface low will prevent the ridge...
hence Yr.no running with it
Yr.no is based off determ EC, not eps iirc.
yr.no seem to always over state volume / depth
Cardrona getting dumped on
Cold for the south tomorrow night, minus 5 forecast for Queenstown.
Imagine if there were direct flights from Illawarra Airport to Queenstown.
What is the snow level forecast to drop to over the next few days over there?
I'm right up the top of moe Sth/traf Sth area, can just about see across to Hernes oak. Just got rained off at work and came home to another 22mm since late yesterday arvo in the gauge!
Currently 10c and low cloud sitting along the top of the ridge along here.
300-400 metres at times according to WeatherWatch. Metservice is forecasting sleety showers for Queenstown overnight and into tomorrow morning before a clearance which will bring the very cold overnight lows Wednesday night.
Queenstown will be lucky to get to 5 degrees tomorrow.
Any snow for your area?
19 degrees max temps in Canberra 2 days before June early next week is far from average......
Looking out my kitchen window I can see the snow level gradually lowering on the Remarkables. The garden, however, is just really bloody wet at the moment.
said the guy who declared a shit season in early June last year and promptly booked flights to NZ...
Beautiful looking country
What sort of elevation are u sgn?
Chains are now essential on the Crown Range. QLDC have become much more proactive in flagging this these days. It’s a total pain for the Downer guys who have to rescue the silly buggers who flock up there with no chains.
I’m about 350 asl.
24 and magnificent in Sydney, going to work outside on the lappie.
Average long term May maximum for Canberra Airport is 15.6. So only a few degrees above average
Averages are calculated from a range of values, not 31 days of the average temperature in a row.
average by definition suggests that some values will be higher and others will be lower...
Yep. I've noticed in the past this pattern of moist air coming directly from the south west leads to good falls in the Strzelecki ranges. I don't think the rest of the Latrobe valley or west Gippsland got any where near as much rain.
Canberra AP is currently averaging 17.9c which is only about 0.5c off the May record. Probably not an "average" May in terms of max temps.
Likewise here in Western Sydney we're sitting about 0.3c off the May record for maximums along with potentially our driest May on record. Id suspect the averages across the ACT and NSW would be above to well above average with some pockets of record warm temps. There is a lot of residual heat left across the interior after an exceptionally long and hot Summer / "Autumn" but the 30th is shaping up nicely across all the models at the moment. That should go some way to clearing it out.
So within the previous range of readings? The range of readings that makes up the average.
I think Donzas earlier comment was that after a warm April and first week of May we've now settled into a typical autumn after the 9 May system pushed the heat away. Has certainly cooled down out at Dubbo since.
The OP stated "19 degrees max temps in Canberra 2 days before June early next week is far from average......"
What is the average maximum temp for the 28th of May for Canberra airport? Is it a lot less than 19c? Does that make 19c well above the average? Id say @bengarden 's statement is entirely accurate.
Even if you look at the month as a whole it has been a very warm May for Canberra on average. The statement then makes sense in both contexts whichever way you choose to approach it.
Remarks showing her face late this afternoon, looks to be 30-40cm up high, snowline lowered this afternoon but stayed above 1200 or so m most of the day
Looking good on GFS 00z
Ridging out on CMC?
does look good
chaos theory at it's best
Of course 19 is above average. But making a statement that the season is out of whack based on a couple of days maximum temperatures above the monthly average shows a lack of understanding of what an average is.
Early May was a real anomaly in terms of warm temperatures. The last 3 weeks will be fairly normal.
The Decile 9 May maximum for May is 19.5 degrees. That mean there's typically 3 days in May that exceed 19.5 degrees. There has been no maximum higher than 19 since the 8 May cold outbreak.
So Donzas observation that we've settled into typical autumn weather post 8 May system is correct.
GFS likes it for the 30th but still looks a bit ridgy on ACCESS, pressure also seems a bit high for much precip.
EC is going for a massive cut-off/wandering cold pool and then bombing low scenario which doesnt make sense given the position of the high.
Probably too early to say but somewhere between GFS and ACCESS seems a logical progression to me.
Certainly feels normal. Now. Before it cooled down it was at Ridic levels.
Just a tad drier and less cloudy than normal i'd offer.
Yes it feels really normal now on the south coast - you would almost think it was winter already. for over a week now.
The temps inland and in the alps are well above average though.
Cool so its been above average and the end of the month looks like its going to be well above average, especially being that late in May. Sounds a fair summation.
EDIT: I thought I might look this up, the record max temp for Canberra Airport on the 28th of May is 19.4c in 1982. So I guess its every chance to break the daily record for that site.
Bullseye Canobolas? @216 hrs...
Yr.no looking good, hope this one sticks looks to be a solid 40cm down to 1400m imo
IMO EC going with it ridged out.
Based upon the 00z EC run, I expect that to look much worse after it updates this evening (6pm ish).
This morning's run.
Could do with some improvement. Similar to last system the axis points are muddled in that middle section- that suggests divergence and the vorticity plots matches this as well. Hopefully parcel movement will improve in our favour in later runs.