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Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by DiscoStuAU, Mar 1, 2018.
And the maximum for 29 May is 20.1 degrees C in 1954.
Yep. Forecast was for 19c today, reached 20.3c which is also a daily record max for the 22nd. Canberra could well surpass the daily max records for the 27th, 28th and the 29th consecutively if its just a smidge warmer than the current forecast on the 29th.
Or not. Point is it's going to be a very warm end to May for the ACT and much of NSW.
Geezus, shoot the messenger. The average max temps for Canberra is running + 2.5 degrees. That is a fact. By anyones estimation ,the temps this year in Southern NSW/Snowy mountains and the last and so on are warmer than average consistently. I base this also on personal observations of having grown up in Canberra in the 80s and 90s that it is far warmer than normal for almost the start of June. I mean I don't know about you, but I'd also say 10 degree temps and not even getting below freezing at night are not the most promising temps for Perisher a couple of days before winter starts next Monday. It seems inline with BOMs winter outlook for warmer than average temps....
I'm betting GFS will look like EC and CMC tomorrow.
Surprise on the way? 50cm plus sm / opening be all good. Same as last year
Off to NZ again, Rain for mid June, at least 5 inches
Looks like Melbourne will hit our monthly rainfall average for the first time this month since December last year. Just over 55mm so far and we've had a few more mm fall today.
It was a damp old ride home.
I posted this back in the same thread, same time of year in 2016 with the same conversations happening before it....
Needs to be said again. It will snow. Be patient. This is Oz, not Japan...
I reckon you might be onto something. EPS 00z still solid, GEFS and GEPS still interested.
yer no at it again.
As expected it's backed off with this afternoon's EC run, 5cm tops.
and 50-100 mil of rain
10-15mm rain followed by 5cm snow.
This whole scenario has a tonne of wiggle room.
Let's just focus on the high position
One from the bedroom this morning, backside of cardrona, storm coming from the south
Warm moist morning at 1500m
A long way out yet looks promising.
Back on the program again
control looks nice. GFS, CMC and EC all look good, for a decent system.
00z control seems whack?
in what way?
Half your luck. Now whats the weather like?
Craigieburn this morning
Another burst of precipitation on the cards for tomorrow
Sgn - did u get any snow at your place?
Nice shot from Cardrona this morning.
No none at my place. Kingston though got heaps and they’ve closed the Crown Range for the day.
showing on wz synoptics
which is always a good
Crown range today
00z GFS still looks nice for30th May. Decent moisture and reasonably chilly temps.
Just stop in that chain bay!
Four metres long.
00Z runs, GFS and CMC
Still significant divergence in time and size of event.
GFS is day earlier, probably better placed for meaningful system.
CMC a day later, colder, with danger of being ridged out.
Seems to me far too early to call this one given the divergence.
Neither chart looks "right" . To many variable runs on shape and scenarios at the moment.
I'd expect EC to have varied a bit again
Seasonal shake down shift.
However the date range is pretty set. Its been this way for the last two weeks .
Ie something will happen.
Yes, this is how I see it too.
EC still cut off -tasman low
Looks to me EC and CMC are in alignment.
Go for your lives!
Its a 2 week blocker being pushed out of the way by a beast Low that is packing moisture and intensity so the models will struggle this early in the season.
The WZ model looks most realistic to me but not so cut off.
The same way that strong ECL's mess with the models, so do strong blocking highs.
Once the current blocker drops into the Tasman, we need it gone in 48hrs.... if it lingers too long then the low misses its opportunity to push north.
As Donz said. Track the highs and pick the gaps for low potential....
Its still playing out as expected, within the range of variables.
Steady as she goes.
Looks good from here.
Next node after the 30th system looking quite promising IMO.
From ABC fb "weather obsessed "group.
if lunar pix is current ie tonight - then it's still waxing to full next week.
my bad . typo.
Wednesday's Waxing Gibbous.
For the moment the atmosphere is still and clear, a rare moment for crisp crater definition.
Sad times in Queenstown this morning
Take a while to find the right spot?
Queenstown looking good
Another 15cm overnight?
Aye aye Captain.......