Mega Thread The Autumn ground cooling thread!

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by DiscoStuAU, Mar 1, 2018.

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  1. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    And the maximum for 29 May is 20.1 degrees C in 1954.
     
  2. davidg

    davidg Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep. Forecast was for 19c today, reached 20.3c which is also a daily record max for the 22nd. Canberra could well surpass the daily max records for the 27th, 28th and the 29th consecutively if its just a smidge warmer than the current forecast on the 29th.

    Or not. Point is it's going to be a very warm end to May for the ACT and much of NSW.
     
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  3. bengarden

    bengarden One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Geezus, shoot the messenger. The average max temps for Canberra is running + 2.5 degrees. That is a fact. By anyones estimation ,the temps this year in Southern NSW/Snowy mountains and the last and so on are warmer than average consistently. I base this also on personal observations of having grown up in Canberra in the 80s and 90s that it is far warmer than normal for almost the start of June. I mean I don't know about you, but I'd also say 10 degree temps and not even getting below freezing at night are not the most promising temps for Perisher a couple of days before winter starts next Monday. It seems inline with BOMs winter outlook for warmer than average temps....
     
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  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I'm betting GFS will look like EC and CMC tomorrow.
     
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  5. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    Surprise on the way? 50cm plus sm / opening be all good. Same as last year
     
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  6. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    Off to NZ again, Rain for mid June, at least 5 inches
     
  7. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like Melbourne will hit our monthly rainfall average for the first time this month since December last year. Just over 55mm so far and we've had a few more mm fall today.
     
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  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    It was a damp old ride home.
     
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  9. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    I posted this back in the same thread, same time of year in 2016 with the same conversations happening before it....

    Needs to be said again. It will snow. Be patient. This is Oz, not Japan...
     
  10. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    I reckon you might be onto something. EPS 00z still solid, GEFS and GEPS still interested.
     
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  11. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    yer no at it again.
     
  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    As expected it's backed off with this afternoon's EC run, 5cm tops.
     
  13. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    and 50-100 mil of rain
     
  14. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    where?
    10-15mm rain followed by 5cm snow.
    IMO
     
  15. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    This whole scenario has a tonne of wiggle room.
    Let's just focus on the high position
     
  16. Secretcookie

    Secretcookie Addicted

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    One from the bedroom this morning, backside of cardrona, storm coming from the south
     
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  17. malas1

    malas1 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    Warm moist morning at 1500m
     
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  18. Stephen James Allen

    Stephen James Allen Addicted

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    [​IMG]
    A long way out yet looks promising.
     
  19. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Back on the program again
    [​IMG] [​IMG]
     
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  20. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    control looks nice. GFS, CMC and EC all look good, for a decent system.
     
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  21. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    00z control seems whack?
     
  22. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    in what way?
     
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  23. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Half your luck. Now whats the weather like?
     
  24. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Craigieburn this morning
     
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  25. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Another burst of precipitation on the cards for tomorrow
     
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  26. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Sgn - did u get any snow at your place?
     
  27. Zimbooo

    Zimbooo One of Us

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    Nice shot from Cardrona this morning.

     
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  28. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    No none at my place. Kingston though got heaps and they’ve closed the Crown Range for the day.
     
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  29. malas1

    malas1 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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  30. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    showing on wz synoptics
    which is always a good sign
     
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  31. Secretcookie

    Secretcookie Addicted

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    Crown range today
     
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  32. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    00z GFS still looks nice for30th May. Decent moisture and reasonably chilly temps.
     
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  33. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just stop in that chain bay!
    Four metres long.

    Meanwhile
     
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  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    00Z runs, GFS and CMC
    Still significant divergence in time and size of event.
    IMO
    GFS is day earlier, probably better placed for meaningful system.

    [​IMG]

    CMC a day later, colder, with danger of being ridged out.

    [​IMG]

    Seems to me far too early to call this one given the divergence.
     
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  35. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Neither chart looks "right" . To many variable runs on shape and scenarios at the moment.

    I'd expect EC to have varied a bit again

    Seasonal shake down shift.

    However the date range is pretty set. Its been this way for the last two weeks .
    Ie something will happen.
     
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  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yes, this is how I see it too.
     
  37. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC still cut off -tasman low
     
  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looks to me EC and CMC are in alignment.
    [​IMG]
     
  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  40. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Its a 2 week blocker being pushed out of the way by a beast Low that is packing moisture and intensity so the models will struggle this early in the season.

    The WZ model looks most realistic to me but not so cut off.

    The same way that strong ECL's mess with the models, so do strong blocking highs.

    Once the current blocker drops into the Tasman, we need it gone in 48hrs.... if it lingers too long then the low misses its opportunity to push north.

    As Donz said. Track the highs and pick the gaps for low potential....

    Its still playing out as expected, within the range of variables.
     
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  41. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Aye.
    Steady as she goes.
    Looks good from here.
    IMO.
     
  42. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Next node after the 30th system looking quite promising IMO.
     
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  43. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ruapehu today.
     
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  44. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    From ABC fb "weather obsessed "group.
    Waxing Gibbous.
    [​IMG]
     
    #2444 nfip, May 23, 2018
    Last edited: May 24, 2018
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  45. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    if lunar pix is current ie tonight - then it's still waxing to full next week.
     
  46. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    true.
    my bad . typo.
    quoting.
    Wednesday's Waxing Gibbous.
    For the moment the atmosphere is still and clear, a rare moment for crisp crater definition.
     
  47. Secretcookie

    Secretcookie Addicted

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    Sad times in Queenstown this morning
     
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  48. Gimp

    Gimp One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Take a while to find the right spot?
     
  49. Juicebiglow

    Juicebiglow Addicted

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    Queenstown looking good
    [​IMG]
     
  50. Zimbooo

    Zimbooo One of Us

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    Another 15cm overnight?
    Aye aye Captain.......

     
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