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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by DiscoStuAU, Mar 1, 2018.
Spent three great days in Smiggins over the weekend, back today. Warm as toast each day... T shirt weather that belted the man made snow each day.
Cardrona opening this weekend..... for the weekend only. Will be interesting to see if any AUS resorts will be able to respond to that.
I’m not suggesting anything! Just saying......
Possibilty of more good snow around the 5th onwards...........see what happens?
No 00Z or 06Z GFS runs today?
Nothing on tropical tidbits or BSCH.
It's a cool one at Falls tonight, well it is by comparison to the other 2 nights we've been here... 2.5c currently with a -3c "it feels like". Can agree with that as we walked back from the last hoot.
Cracking sunset as well, will post shots once I've edited them as they're all on my camera and not phone.
Canberra has had only 38mm of rain for whole of Autumn its been so dry.
Yep. Thats not even one months average for all of autumn. Plenty of trees either stressed or dying in parks. Has been stupid warm too.17s and 16s for start of winter as far as the eye can see and barely getting below freezing at night. I remember Mays in the past getting quite a few -5/-4 mornings. Not this year.....7 degrees temps for Perisher for June are not promising either. Of course that could all change in a few weeks and we'll be getting hit with some proper fronts again once these stagnant high pressures f**k off.
Decent rain overnight - 15mm.
Extended GFS has the blocking High from hell. Ughh...
Is that an ECL on the long range charts?
Something like that. 11th still very much an option.
Interesting to note that 12Z GFS had a pineapple express from the Indian Ocean around the QB Weekend.
Some might find this interesting
A study offers an explanation for a mysterious and sometimes deadly weather pattern in which the jet stream, the global air currents that circle the Earth, stalls out over a region. Much like highways, the jet stream has a capacity, researchers said, and when it's exceeded, blockages form that are remarkably similar to traffic jams -- and climate forecasters can use the same math to model them both
Was 25.6 deg in Sydney today almost Jan average
It gets hot when a cold front pushes all the heat over to us
I was distracted by the gigantic city-wide campfire. The top I was riding in literally smelled like smoke by the time I got to work!
Dont give up on the 7th just yet.
EC likes the High moving over to NZ. Could be some room to move IMO.
228h hope-cast. Only on GFS
EC and CMC have WA SW being smashed on the 6th.
Quite a large mass of cool air in it but in weather terms its not the size that matters.
Peaks over WA and slides south when it's over the eastern states.
Joke of the year so far!!! Enjoy you will get a laugh
I am still trying to identify the ventusky map that they used wind is back to front
Huh? Were they on drugs when that was written?
Not sure who the writer was, its not Dave .. I got it from his FB feed. But it quotes BOM and WZ. Someone has a cold agenda..
Even if the sunspot theory stands tall, it may not happen this year. lol
I can't believe they managed to get a quote out of Weatherzone to justify the story the headline.
There's absolutely nothing to suggest it's going to be remotely "cold" over this period. I'd consider it actually quite mild.
More "fake facts".
I think the real question here is, what drugs were they on and can we have some.
Goodness me that article was painful to read. "Cold conditions are expected to last until the end of August" ... Umm....
Yeh, it's called "winter".
What a load of old bollocks that article is. The Daily Mail have a habit of doing this.
What they fail to point out is that temperatures are still at or above average for this time of year.
As I’ve written on these threads before, weather stories are usually given to the least experienced person in a newsroom. In this case it took two illiterate young know-nothings to completely obliterate both English grammar and meteorology in just a few short paragraphs.
Interestingly, while the UK Daily Fail is that country’s most popular online news source, here it struggles to stay in the top ten. Makes me feel good about our taste in media compared to the poms!
Most infuriatingly for Daily Fail Australia, no one ever shares or likes their blend of celebrity intrusion and hate-filled “news” on Facebook. While some Aussies do read it, no one wants to be seen doing so. Ha!
This is interesting to keep tucked under the keyboard. I note we are I the purple and FV and half way down are on , Got some serious temps heading our way.
MR looks a better colour this morning.
Just to return to this - it has been the third-warmest autumn on record and my pomegranates still didn't ripen properly. Disastrous.
The BOM outlook isn't looking too nice, what does everyone think about this?
Not good, but I am sticking with my slightly above average prog.
The South East is going to burn to the ground this coming Spring and Summer. The August winds could get the firestorm going even earlier. This is very bad.
I guess the only upside is that there will be little rain to wash away what does fall. Similar to how 2017 panned out.
I won't complain if we have another 2017. The outlook by bom was very similar last year!
Chart needs re-designing. Readability factor makes it a strain. Never ever combine red and blue for writing...and red writing is only ever for editorial remarks - according to the studies in Information Design Science I did as part of a degree. How about some spacing above and below each field too....
That is quite a turnaround from the last outlook. For the last 12 months, it seems that what we've been getting has been opposite to the outlook, so I'm hoping we get the opposite to this and get some moisture in the paddocks before spring. Last winter was very dry in East Gippsland, don't really want another like that.
Don't like that outlook at all. Climate people have been telling us for years now that the westerlies are sinking further south which is bad for snow, rain in sthn Aust (especially SA, VIC, WA), everything. I so fear for the viability of our beautiful fragile snowfields.
But can any of you proper weather nerds explain how Tasman sea warm temps will hinder the arrival of westerly systems? Doesn't make sense on face value to me how a set of conditions over east would affect stuff coming from the west. Thanks.
The high is our friend at the moment
We’ve seen warm anoms in the Tasman since the start of last year. It’s contributed (IMO) to the blocking and ridging that we’ve periodically seen, in the Tasman. I suspect BOM see’s no end to this. My argument against this is that Tasman SSTA temps are nowhere near as warm as last year...
On the other hand CFS does point to a break up of the 850 U-Wind (Easterly flow over Northern Tasman) by the end of June, suggesting a return of the Westerly flow for the SE.
Not all is lost IMO.
As pointed out in this thread the other day... The purple Winter one-eyed system slipping under WA next Tuesday is looking to be a doozey. Will pack strong winds for coastal Sou West.
The Daily Mail article gets about a three out of ten score. When I was studying professional writing and journalism, a piece like that would have been seriously marked by the assessing person. How poor. One fail is with the map showing temperature - given without any legend or guide as to the colours and what they indicate. It is slack work just collecting a few bits and throwing them together. And why the so called Canberra image with a bike rider at an intersection? Is it actually Canberra? There is nothing to prove so - the Merc has a NSW plate I think. It shows nothing really, and the stock image of pedestrians looks as if it might be the USA. Finally, the bottom of the chair lift photo is non-descript and is captioned "Australia braces for the chilly winter conditions" - everyone in the pic looks quite comfy considering they are in ski gear and there is no image of anyone 'bracing'. Crap journalism in my book. And yet I could comment on the actual text...
Furthermore, why would WZ use "BOM outlook: Winter is coming but it's looking hot and dry for south-east Australia"...there is nothing to indicate any time will be 'hot'. Proper word use to presesnt an accurate idea would be better...not hot.
Contrast this article to the one on Fairfax web pages today. Base upon the BOM outlook released.
Winter is coming ... eventually' but June forecast to be dry and mild.
Melburnians can leave their umbrellas at home this June with a dry and mild start to winter, the Bureau of Meteorology says.
The bureau's forecast is based on current weather patterns, although for the next fortnight Victorians can expect the clear skies and sunny days to be accompanied by crisp mornings.
Senior forecaster Keris Arndt said the days are expected to average 16 to 17 degrees, with cool and light winds.
“Rug up though with cold mornings expected, dropping down to 5 degrees overnight,” Mr Arndt said.
No ice age predicted here!
Yep - my fiancé is a pom and she loves the UK Daily Mail.
Whenever she says "OMG did you hear about <insert news headline here>", my response is always - "Was it from Daily Mail"?
On topic - bloody cold this morning at 5am arriving at work...
Looking brutal at the Valley tonight
ok off you go, redesign it for us and post back.. Suggest the job you get the job!!!
Sayonara to Autumn.... Big phat High to Winter