Mega Thread The Autumn (SDS Season) Chatter Thread

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Feb 27, 2015.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Lets look at the BOM outlooks

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

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    Looks like we're in for some warmer nights here in the SE
     
  2. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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  3. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think we see the same thing almost every autumn outlook, at least as far as Victoria is concerned - warmer than average days and nights, <50% chance of exceeding the median rainfall.
     
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  4. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wow looks like something the JMA would produce and promptly amend a few weeks down the track @Sandy
     
  5. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IIRC the Autumn outlook has low confidence of accuracy.
     
  6. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Despite the fact that you can ski in Winter - Autumn is my favourite season.

    That said I'll miss a third of it to go skiing! :D
     
  7. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    :D

    But at least the BOM is sensible enough to post a colour on the map for each percentage...... JMA (Japan) has 3 %ages on their maps for each area....
    e.g.
    40% chance higher than average +
    30% chance average +
    30% chance lower than average
    =100%

    But does that mean 70% chance of average or above average or 60% chance of average or below average??? LOL
     
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  8. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    The BOM default "we have no bloody idea whats going to happen" maps.

    I think there is a 50% chance they may or may not be right.
     
  9. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Essentially zero snowy cold fronts this past summer. Maybe a flurry above 2000m one night in Jan. And I think Tassie got one cold front with some snow - also in Jan. Given how mild and quite wet in places this summer has been, I won't be surprised if we now get a long Indian summer. The Illawarra has been wet and humid since early Nov.
     
  10. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    30 degrees forecast for Katoomba tomorrow, the first day of autumn!!
     
  11. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    IMO Melbourne was a summer of 'almosts' lots of fronts and systems looked like producing, but in my area I have just average rainfall for the period. A lot of that came in big dumps of rain, not spread through the summer too. But I also missed out on lots of storms that were too far East/West or just plain unlucky. I thought we were set for a west-moving ECL in Feb, alas it didnt eventuate (the cyclones and movement of the monsoon trough had a lot to do with that), but it could always happen in autumn, you never know.
     
  12. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    First day of autumn and a snow-forecast.com snow alert for Remarkables next week has landed in my inbox.:)
     
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  13. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Our first day of what looked like classic Indian Summer - just got washed away big time. Thunder, heavy rain, small hail, Just another 4 season day on the NSW South Coast. Should hit Sydney in an hour or so. Meanwhile looks like a very nice cold pool south of the Bight. Will be interesting to see what happens this week.
     
  14. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Mmm, this morning had that nice bit of coolness about it. A sunny still morning but a touch of that autumnal feeling.

    I'm hoping that the last for the 35C+ weather is now behind us, with just the odd day in March of around 30. Forecast in Melbourne for this week is nice and mild. Looks like a good start to the month for mine. North of the divide looks a few degrees warmer, but not bad at all.

    :)
     
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  15. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Indian Summer is good outlook for Team Bears....lots of work to be done...
    Bears not like skiing in rain or chainsawing in it either...roll on those warm Autumn days......:love:
     
  16. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Certainly looks coolish, light winds in the SE this week. Perhaps warming a little on the weekend. Feels much more like late April.
     
  17. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just lit the first fire of the season to warm the house :)
    PS: and the leaves are changing colour.
     
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  18. Bloke

    Bloke One of Us

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  19. Boodwah

    Boodwah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Leaves falling/changing in the Ovens
     
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  20. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    There is a limit of predictability of ENSO as it returns to a neutral state (which occurs in the southern hemisphere autumn). That has to do with the physical nature of the coupled-atmospheric phenomenon, which typically returns to an unstable equilibrium at this time. It's very hard to predict which way it will move because small scale atmospheric/ocean dynamics (which are difficult to forecast beyond 7 days) can ultimately create an ENSO event.
     
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  21. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    NIWA's outlook for March-May suggests average to above average temps and average precipitation for most of NZ including inland and alpine South Island.
     
  22. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Summarizing PG post Bears say that means anything cannot be ruled in /out!!!
    :thumbs:
    Appears most of Vic has come thro another fire season unscathed....but we hope that conditions stay optimal for fuel reduction program and good burning weather continues...

    Team Bears say fallen oak leaves in Bright must be troublesome for those on pedal bicycles on their outings....leading to a slippery wet mass...

    BOM seem to be saying that there will be below average rainfall for Autumn...
    First Autumn arvo in West Kiewa(Upper) was windy after a still evening leading to gentle rain

    are we coming up to a full moon for Labour Day Weekend....Dingos seem to go right off at height of full moon..:whistle:

    Wonder how trees factor in all model information to shed leaves at correct time??o_O
     
  23. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    It means that you don't really know if you are in an El Nino/La Nina until it's already happened.

    And even then you can't always agree, as various International weather agencies often have different criteria. So for 'weak' events there is often disagreement as to whether or not we actually had an El Nino in 2014 or not.
     
  24. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    [​IMG]

    Bureau of Meteorology

    Tasmania's Eaglehawk Neck kicked off autumn with an aurora australis as spotted around 3:30am by Toby Frost on 1 March!
     
  25. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    stunning
     
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  26. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  27. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  28. cookieman

    cookieman One of Us

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    BOM appear to be in panic mode and chopping and changing too quickly.
     
  29. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    And what do you base that on? SOI? SST Nino 3.4? OLR values? Trade wind anomalies?

    Let's see what other overseas professional Earth scientists think about the current situation in the Pacific.
     
  30. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Oooooh touchy.
     
  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Settle down.

    We all know this has been a borderline or weak El Nino. I can understand the vacillation from the BOM and other climate prediction authorities.
     
  32. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM lie every day. They need to walk outside sometimes.
     
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  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  34. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well, they should. Their forecasts are as acceptable as a tarot card reader. Don't bother anymore, just use local neighbourly weather stations.
     
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  35. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Pissweak January turned into consistently warm and humid Feb and March so far in Dubbo. Has been max of 30+ for the last 30 days here and rarely below 40% humidity, which is high for here. No real stinkers though. Good for establishing new lawn.
     
  36. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Damn right. Who needs cyclone warnings anymore? Let the Queenslanders drown I say.
     
  37. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    There are plenty more reliable sources than the BOM. They are downright embarrassing.
     
  38. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    During a bushfire season I don't need to rely on forecasts, radar data or the Bureau's network of Automatic Weather stations. I just stand outside and wait until I see smoke. That's the best and safest way to manage the risk.
     
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  39. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah. Holton weather is awesome.
     
  40. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Whatever you like, suits you and whatever I like, suits me. Who's Holton?
     
  41. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  42. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Don't feed this troll PG. It's just what he wants
     
  43. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep, bushfire can be quick, especially when started by lightning, smokers, farm machinery, pyromaniacs etc.
     
  44. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Typical, don't like BOM and get named a troll. :p
     
  45. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bro, pls
    ABC radio
    Follow CFA updates on Twitter
     
  46. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    No, I simply disagree with you suggesting their forecasts are akin to tarot cards. I take that in the same breath as the same folks that crap on about the "forecasters rarely get it right" and other such crap.

    I just wonder whether you actually visit the website regularly, read the State forecasts, and then the particular city/town forecasts. From my own observations, and when consulting the radar, I find them to be particularly helpful, especially when the weather can be quite different between where I live and work.
     
  47. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Benchmark BOM against private weather locations and you would soon understand my opinion.
     
  48. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Take it to the BBQ thread I think;)
     
  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Pls show me these benchmarks/metrics.
     
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  50. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Are you criticising their forecasts or observations?
     
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