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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Feb 27, 2015.
Lets look at the BOM outlooks
Looks like we're in for some warmer nights here in the SE
Do not like
I think we see the same thing almost every autumn outlook, at least as far as Victoria is concerned - warmer than average days and nights, <50% chance of exceeding the median rainfall.
Wow looks like something the JMA would produce and promptly amend a few weeks down the track @Sandy
IIRC the Autumn outlook has low confidence of accuracy.
Despite the fact that you can ski in Winter - Autumn is my favourite season.
That said I'll miss a third of it to go skiing!
But at least the BOM is sensible enough to post a colour on the map for each percentage...... JMA (Japan) has 3 %ages on their maps for each area....
40% chance higher than average +
30% chance average +
30% chance lower than average
But does that mean 70% chance of average or above average or 60% chance of average or below average???
The BOM default "we have no bloody idea whats going to happen" maps.
I think there is a 50% chance they may or may not be right.
Essentially zero snowy cold fronts this past summer. Maybe a flurry above 2000m one night in Jan. And I think Tassie got one cold front with some snow - also in Jan. Given how mild and quite wet in places this summer has been, I won't be surprised if we now get a long Indian summer. The Illawarra has been wet and humid since early Nov.
30 degrees forecast for Katoomba tomorrow, the first day of autumn!!
IMO Melbourne was a summer of 'almosts' lots of fronts and systems looked like producing, but in my area I have just average rainfall for the period. A lot of that came in big dumps of rain, not spread through the summer too. But I also missed out on lots of storms that were too far East/West or just plain unlucky. I thought we were set for a west-moving ECL in Feb, alas it didnt eventuate (the cyclones and movement of the monsoon trough had a lot to do with that), but it could always happen in autumn, you never know.
First day of autumn and a snow-forecast.com snow alert for Remarkables next week has landed in my inbox.
Our first day of what looked like classic Indian Summer - just got washed away big time. Thunder, heavy rain, small hail, Just another 4 season day on the NSW South Coast. Should hit Sydney in an hour or so. Meanwhile looks like a very nice cold pool south of the Bight. Will be interesting to see what happens this week.
Mmm, this morning had that nice bit of coolness about it. A sunny still morning but a touch of that autumnal feeling.
I'm hoping that the last for the 35C+ weather is now behind us, with just the odd day in March of around 30. Forecast in Melbourne for this week is nice and mild. Looks like a good start to the month for mine. North of the divide looks a few degrees warmer, but not bad at all.
Indian Summer is good outlook for Team Bears....lots of work to be done...
Bears not like skiing in rain or chainsawing in it either...roll on those warm Autumn days......
Certainly looks coolish, light winds in the SE this week. Perhaps warming a little on the weekend. Feels much more like late April.
Just lit the first fire of the season to warm the house
PS: and the leaves are changing colour.
There's a good discussion of the model accuracy here: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/about/#tabs=Past-accuracy
Leaves falling/changing in the Ovens
There is a limit of predictability of ENSO as it returns to a neutral state (which occurs in the southern hemisphere autumn). That has to do with the physical nature of the coupled-atmospheric phenomenon, which typically returns to an unstable equilibrium at this time. It's very hard to predict which way it will move because small scale atmospheric/ocean dynamics (which are difficult to forecast beyond 7 days) can ultimately create an ENSO event.
NIWA's outlook for March-May suggests average to above average temps and average precipitation for most of NZ including inland and alpine South Island.
Summarizing PG post Bears say that means anything cannot be ruled in /out!!!
Appears most of Vic has come thro another fire season unscathed....but we hope that conditions stay optimal for fuel reduction program and good burning weather continues...
Team Bears say fallen oak leaves in Bright must be troublesome for those on pedal bicycles on their outings....leading to a slippery wet mass...
BOM seem to be saying that there will be below average rainfall for Autumn...
First Autumn arvo in West Kiewa(Upper) was windy after a still evening leading to gentle rain
are we coming up to a full moon for Labour Day Weekend....Dingos seem to go right off at height of full moon..
Wonder how trees factor in all model information to shed leaves at correct time??
It means that you don't really know if you are in an El Nino/La Nina until it's already happened.
And even then you can't always agree, as various International weather agencies often have different criteria. So for 'weak' events there is often disagreement as to whether or not we actually had an El Nino in 2014 or not.
Bureau of Meteorology
Tasmania's Eaglehawk Neck kicked off autumn with an aurora australis as spotted around 3:30am by Toby Frost on 1 March!
BOM Australia @BOM_au 8m8 minutes ago
Renewed warming in Pacific Ocean. ENSO Tracker now at #ElNiño WATCH. Check our #ENSO Wrap-Up http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
BOM appear to be in panic mode and chopping and changing too quickly.
And what do you base that on? SOI? SST Nino 3.4? OLR values? Trade wind anomalies?
Let's see what other overseas professional Earth scientists think about the current situation in the Pacific.
We all know this has been a borderline or weak El Nino. I can understand the vacillation from the BOM and other climate prediction authorities.
BOM lie every day. They need to walk outside sometimes.
Well, they should. Their forecasts are as acceptable as a tarot card reader. Don't bother anymore, just use local neighbourly weather stations.
Pissweak January turned into consistently warm and humid Feb and March so far in Dubbo. Has been max of 30+ for the last 30 days here and rarely below 40% humidity, which is high for here. No real stinkers though. Good for establishing new lawn.
Damn right. Who needs cyclone warnings anymore? Let the Queenslanders drown I say.
There are plenty more reliable sources than the BOM. They are downright embarrassing.
During a bushfire season I don't need to rely on forecasts, radar data or the Bureau's network of Automatic Weather stations. I just stand outside and wait until I see smoke. That's the best and safest way to manage the risk.
Yeah. Holton weather is awesome.
Whatever you like, suits you and whatever I like, suits me. Who's Holton?
Don't feed this troll PG. It's just what he wants
Yep, bushfire can be quick, especially when started by lightning, smokers, farm machinery, pyromaniacs etc.
Typical, don't like BOM and get named a troll.
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No, I simply disagree with you suggesting their forecasts are akin to tarot cards. I take that in the same breath as the same folks that crap on about the "forecasters rarely get it right" and other such crap.
I just wonder whether you actually visit the website regularly, read the State forecasts, and then the particular city/town forecasts. From my own observations, and when consulting the radar, I find them to be particularly helpful, especially when the weather can be quite different between where I live and work.
Benchmark BOM against private weather locations and you would soon understand my opinion.
Take it to the BBQ thread I think
Pls show me these benchmarks/metrics.
Are you criticising their forecasts or observations?