Mega Thread The Autumn (SDS Season) Chatter Thread

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Claude Cat, Feb 27, 2015.

  1. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Got mine going tonight and the box also. Box warming all he air up only for it to go up the chimney!

    House is toasty. Loving it.
     
  2. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    That's a shocking map PG, I feel for the producers. So much beef, veggies, sugar & dairy in that area, they can't take a trick. I guess NW cloud bands are the next salvation this winter for western QLD?

    On an unrelated note, SST's in the Southern ocean are below average right now, any correlation data out there on winters/snow/systems when this occurs? Apparently Indian Ocean is a hot tub right now which supposedly aids NW moisture injections. Love a good NW feed being tapped into by a strong outbreak. I remember Falls expat breaking one down quite a few years back with his green highlighter! LOL Perfect storm stuff. Where is that fella?
     
  3. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Falls is active in the current El Nino thread
     
  4. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    -4 in Canberra this morning. My dog doesn't want to go outside, which is a strong indicator that it's colder than usual.
     
  5. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM says it got down to -4.7C

    This meant it's the 1st beanie wearing day on the ride into work. Winter has officially started for me:)
     
  6. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    So after our little taste of winter and white stuff the past few days. The punters have the taste for snow and are wanting more more more.

    Anything starting to show up in range of maps that could see the next potential snow bearing system?
    I could look myself, but im a modern age lazy kid who would rather someone else do it.
    Actually Im not good at reading the maps so its better that someone with a tad of knowledge does it.
     
  7. AJS

    AJS One of Us

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    Coldest morning in Syd for the year, and coldest May Day since 2011. Had to take a 15min walk through Surry Hills at 8am in a dress and blazer, certainly wasn't pleasant, but couldn't help smiling thinking winter is finally on it's way...
     
  8. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    Not all that much sugar/veggies/dairy in the current drought-declared areas, but area may grow. Central and western Queensland didn't have a terrible summer; friends on the Diamantina got some rain and a lucky river flood. The thing is the long term picture -- no decent rain for three years, and chances are it only gets worse from here. It doesn't rain much in winter ... a bit in the south ... err, except when it does (2010).

    [​IMG]
     
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  9. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I had a go at this a few years back and from what I saw, cold water temps in the bite are bad for the snow season. It causes the Highs to stall longer in the bite so a lot less fronts make it to the Alps.

    The ideal setup is a few warm pools under South Australia and the Western 3rd of Vic. Just enough to inject some moisture into the passing fronts but not enough to warm them too much. Ideally, the warm pool will trigger a low after a strong front passes over, that then makes its way towards the Alps.

    The signs for a good potential of snow is when the warm water from the Indian Ocean starts to move into the bite. You will see small patches of warm water start to force its way past the SW tip of WA and slowly make it into the bite. Once this happens, it is sign that a good dump should follow in a few weeks.

    In my opinion.
     
  10. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  11. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    The start of this season will be an interesting one as a few things are happening that I have not personally witnessed before like the massive warm anomaly in the Southern Indian and the warm anomaly of SE Australia.

    The setup I mentioned above is normally accompanied by relatively normal temps in the Indian during early winter before the warm water pushes SE into the bite during July/August. It is not uncommon to have random warm pools lingering off the East Coast which has helped the development of some of our best ECL’s over the last decade but this year both Warm anomalies appear to be larger.

    My gut is saying that SW WA will have a pretty nasty storm season this year thanks to the abundant warm water to its SW in the Indian, meaning a lot of systems will peak early this year Or at least for the next few weeks, depending on what the water temps do.

    I will be interested to see if the current cold water in the bite will cause the highs to stall or if the West and East coast anomalies have a destabilising effect.

    The problem with the above is that it is still a major work in progress. It was only a few years ago that we got access to daily SST updates so prior to that, I was running of weekly and monthly anomalies that I then had to try and match to each period of snow or blocking highs.

    The basic trend I found was as per the earlier post but when you throw a few other anomalies into the mix, it’s a case of sitting back and enjoying the ride.
     
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  12. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    I'm with you "The Fallen" I'm thinking we'll see an average to perhaps slightly below average season, like a 2002 or 2007 season.....
     
  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Anyone think the models are having trouble beyond the weekend? That low that comes down the west coast seems to be putting the models in a spin, with some weird scenarios being proposed afterwards.
     
  14. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    even the spag has a sandwiched upper level cut off that goes funky.
    I think looking at MSLP might be a bit so so at the moment.
    though it reminds me of some shit stuff...and some really good stuff..
    Lows that far north and highs that far south can go two ways.
     
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  15. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Was thinking that myself. The models are showing the Low weakening fast once it moves into the Bight. CC, Could this be caused by the cold water temps mentioned earlier?
     
  16. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    could well be.
     
  17. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Next week could be interesting to watch. We might start to get a few answers to the effects of the SST a bit earlier than I was expecting.
     
  18. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks awful - best to enjoy the Indian summer weather on the coast for a few days and get in the queue at Aldi on Saturday. Hopefully flips to the good stuff in a few days. :(
     
  19. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    Like. It's been a while but a few seasons back a nice little warm pool in western bass strait amplified a little cut off and really delivered the goods. Thanks heaps for the knowledge, Fallen.
     
  20. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    A stalled high can be a good thing, it's where it sets up that's important. I dont mind colder temps in the bight, although they dont occur that often so it's hard to take too many data points from them.
     
  21. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Early July 2011 being the good example:

    See first 40 seconds of this vid i made BC (before child)
     
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  22. Boodwah

    Boodwah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Enjoyed watching that all over again.
    More MOTBC 2015
     
  23. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    Oh lord, what a set up! Like!
     
  24. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    The location of the high definitely makes all the difference.

    July 2011 had average temps around Tas and Southern Vic but a warm stream of water was moving into the bite from WA. By mid July it had made it most of the way along the SA coast. By August it had reached Tassy. The warm stream hugged the coast and below it was average temps for the remainder of the Bight.

    The problem I have noticed with cold water in the bight is that once a high centres itself over the cold water, it tend to stall and strengthen before eventually moving on. So you often get the case of a weakish high moving into the bight that then stalls and strengthens rather than continuing moving east. I know this is a fairly standard early winter pattern with blocking highs but in years with cold water in the bight, it seems to be a little worse.

    It will be interesting to see if next week’s models are true with the low weakening in the bight which is then followed by a weakish high. If the high stalls and strengthens then it may be an indication of the early winter trend.
     
  25. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    Team, do you think this is our next chance of snow on the horizon?
    [​IMG]
     
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  26. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Both EC and GFS now have a massive rain event on Wednesday & Thursday next week.
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Both models showing totals between 50 and 100mm for central Vic, NE Vic and southern NSW.
    Here's hoping the models don't have it right - I think there's still extreme volatility around for next week.
     
  27. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    That's such a gross mid-winter setup, but for this time of the year I dont mind it. My footpath hasnt been dry since Monday, so i'm getting used to it being wet all the time. Hopefully I dont see dry until September.
     
  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I'm not fussed that it's wet, but the quantities that are predicted, on catchments that are already saturated is going to cause flooding in quite a few places if it comes off.
     
  29. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cant have it both ways, it doesnt rain enough, it rains too much. It's like those idiots that whinge in summer it's too hot then whinge in winter it's too cold where is summer? Pick one and stick with it. I dont like the heat, I never complain it's too cold.
     
  30. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm a summer to hot complainer, but im a winter man.
    It can never get to Cold in Aus, but definitely to hot.

    Most likely a downgrade for next weeks system. The trend of the models usually is all out a week before then a few days out become realistic to just another cloudy drizzle.
    Here's hoping they get one right however, I guess they have to at some stage get one correct this far out.
    Way to warm for any potential snow however.
     
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  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    This, definitely this.
     
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  32. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Good for water storages mate. Plenty of capacity in the bigger dams. A little minor to moderate rises in streams isn't a massive deal. A system like that one in early September 2010 that smashed NE Vic is another story though.

    Like Verm said, things being moist isn't bad, at least here in May. Central Vic would probably welcome it
     
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  33. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    I don't see it personally
    models , just haven't got a great handle on it yet.
     
  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Still a lot of volatility for sure. I'm posting it because both EC and GFS are in agreement, but I wouldn't be surprised with anything next week.
     
  35. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Just looks like one of those weird inland wish washy troughs that meanders across the continent..
     
  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    That's what it is.
     
  37. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    The models have this one dropping off the NSW Mid North Coast and forming another ECL between Nelsons Bay and Port Macquarie. Normally I would say this is a bad thing after the punishment we copped in April but if we are heading into a Medium to Strong El Nino, I think we need any extra rain we can get to top off the dams and get maximum moisture into the soil.

    But like Donza said, the models are all over the shop at the moment. The joy of changing seasons.
     
  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  39. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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  40. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Meanwhile.
    [​IMG]
     
  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    How many lifts up Mt Kosciuszko?
    It's a bit like Hotham putting a picture of Mt Feathertop up!
     
  42. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    does it have snow on it?
     
  43. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I'm sure it does!
     
  44. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Its a great click bait for Perisher.
    gets people looking
    good for MR peeps too
     
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  45. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    that looks skiable....wonder if anyone will head out MR this weekend for some early season turns.....
     
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  46. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    Access suggests the same, all troughy & cut - off lowy but no much cold air around. That 850 hpa chart suggest a tongue of cold air may squirt up in a southerly fetch between highs, still a ways to go. Looks moist though, agree with all here, farmers need it and it's only May.
     
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  47. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    LOL
     
  48. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Mawson looks ready to rock.

    [​IMG]
     
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  49. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    No depth from the Hydro? There's measureable (right skyline):

    [​IMG]
     
  50. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    It doesn't look like any resorts went too hard on the snow making over the last few days despite the cold temps. Maybe they had an eye on next weeks rain event and thought it would be a waste of time?
     
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