Gfs is going gangbusters for next thurs and fri for precipitation and cold on the run I just looked at . Let's hope it sticks
gfs and access charts looking similar for thurs fri next week . do the boffins think that this is a good sign ab
Looking at the NSW cams, it's a gorgeous morning in the resorts and... Perisher has the guns blazing again!!!
The Bom 4 day is calling a more realistic setup than yesterday but let's see what this arvo brings. The high SW of WA should hopefully allow for a cold air infusion into the low so If the Low can hold its latitude as it heads to tas then in might be game on for a wandering cold pool. The position of the Tasman high is the game breaker for me though. It should force the low south meaning we miss any goodness it can dish out.
It's pretty obvious to anyone who skis that the seasons are becoming less and less reliable. Sadly, for snowsports I think by the time I'm old enough to retire there won't be much to ski for any length of time except above 1900-2000m in this country. You only need to look at the snow depth trends that are posted fairly regularly on this forum in the weather section.....
Integral snow depth is looking much worse, as well as pwak depth at lower levels. We'll still get relatively high peak depths for some time to come, after big cold systems, but after each system the snow won't stick around.
Is that Mt Kosciuszko? If so then from now on Coronet Peak cams are going to feature various shots of Aoraki-Mt Cook.
Interestingly, if you look at 15 year blocks, ALL 3 from 1954 had 7 two metre or above peaks, so roughly half were average to great. The last 15, 1990-2014, there was only 2 quite high peaks. 2000 (yeah baby!), and 1996 (pee eye em peeee!). The 1954-1989 period was punctuated with a few beauties not seen of late. 2006-2014 have been consistently meh, besides the odd mega dumpage in July IMO (#powerade/goggle/ruler)
According to Mountainwatch: Next 7-Days Breckenridge - USA 31 cm Mammoth - USA 24 cm Aspen Mountain - USA 21 cm The Remarkables - New Zealand 13 cm Vail - USA 13 cm Steamboat - USA 11 cm Snow Farm - New Zealand 8 cm Snow Park - New Zealand 8 cm Cardrona - New Zealand 8 cm Hanmer Springs - New Zealand 7 cm
From my man: One of the major forecasting roles at the Bureau of Meteorology is forecasting for the aviation industry. Here is a glimpse at what the Aviation forecasting desk looks like within the Victoria Regional Forecasting Centre. The wall mounted monitors display one minute data from 84 automatic weather stations situated around the State, while the graphs show cloud height and visibility at the 20 airports that we forecast for including Melbourne Airport.
GFS is suggesting freaky things at the end of the month. All I take from it is that "something" might happen. EC has perhaps some light snow showers above 2000m for the 25-26th.
Meanwhile, at Mt Cook Village: "There was almost 500mm of rain in the village last week...Around 7 metres of snow would have fallen on the main divide above about 3000m."
In all seriousness. It shows a fallacy of long range forecasting . Its pointless. If people book holidays around that, its pretty ridiculous
