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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Feb 27, 2015.
Frog just over-reaching a bit. Decent lobe on spag can give around 2 weeks warning IMO. Several examples last year, few misses: http://http://gergs.net/2014/10/season-2014-roundup/
Yeah for sure.
Much the same way John Moore overreached IMO.
Nothin wrong with aving a go
well if peoples money is involved... I thing there is IMO.
I just coughed up my coffee.
But who books an Aus Snow holiday these days more than a few weeks out? Unless you have kids and need to book school holidays, in which case you are restricted anyway.
Frog has his audience but anyone who takes it with more than a grain of salt only has themselves to blame IMO
Edgar Reese is a scary fellow
Frog is kinda useful when I havent been looking at weather for a while and he says x system is coming in 455 days. It makes me go hmm I should go check the charts and see what's happening. That's about the extent of it.
For the first time in about a decade I'm booked way ahead, because a few families at school have a tradition of booking out a Dinner Plain property in August. A spot came up this year so we decided to take the plunge and bring the kids. They'll have loads of people to play with and we can meet some more families in the neighbourhood.
I'm not holding much hope for there being good skiing in the 3rd week of August. The kids can ski on man-made. I'll bring my skins and earn my turns, or bring my bike and go for a ride.
Heaps of people. Families, as you've said, but lots of people need to make leave arrangements well ahead of time, or if they have a group of friendfs going you need to have some idea of when you will all turn up to the same premises.
Booking holidays in advance is more usual than not I'd suggest.
From 1993 until 2005, always first week of August for me and my wolf pack, lately I have realised I was missing out on a lot of COLD DRY dumps last few weeks of July, so started going earlier. In 7 outta last 10 seasons IMO, Spring has moved forward a month, so mid-late July is my pick, then spontaneous trips for the August dumps. Late June is great.......at Perisher & Bobo (Thredders), where height means 20cms of pow Vs 2cm of sleet down at Buller. If Buller was deeper into the range, ppffttt, they would kill it, terrain so varied and has REAL steeps IMO
At the risk of getting off tangent with this thread, you can play it smart.
For example, last year I had to occupy the youngest for a week of the June/July school holidays. Optimal plan was to go skiing at Buller. 2 weeks out there was no snow on the ground. But 7 days out the models predicted the huge dump that we got. Managed to score an incredible deal for accommodation, and not only that, the mountain was completely empty so it meant Nick virtually had one on one skiing lessons at the ski school. It is quite sobering booking a fair slab of money when there's no snow on the ground, but if you get it right, there are plenty of advantages.
(The fallback position if there was no snow in the medium range forecast was to go fishing at Eildon)
One of those costs quite a bit more money than the other
Sure, but if there's no snow, then there's no skiing.
I booked well in advance for about 15 years to get the cheaper deals but it was too hit and miss. It was hard enough to talk a group of friends into taking their first trip to the snow and nearly impossible to get them back after a bad season.
I just go for the last minute long weekends when the snow falls and if thing are looking good by August, then an end of August week is always up the sleeve.
The risk of booking early and then having no snow is just too great these days. When you add up the cost of the accommodation and expenses plus the wasted annual leave.
I know a few last minute places where I can get a 4 or 5 day booking a week in advance during late July/August so can still make the most of it. Just keep an eye on the weather and when the base is there, take the punt and book the storm.
If it dumps early then the Wagon comes into good use as well.
Get Aldi gear. Buy Freedom Pass. Ski whenever.
I'm booked for second week August as it is my significant birthday and Hotham/Dinner Plain is where I want to spend it with my friends (regardless of conditions). My choice what I wanted to do and this was it.
... and sleep in the car or buy a permanet van - which I did so I could work on a full size computer at night - as I can't do my job on a laptop in a cramped car - plus most of the good free spots to park and sleep in the car have crappy 3G. We spend as much as a typical family does on a week and weekend either on snow or in Jindy in self contained - and instead we get a whole season to come and go at will depending on the weather and whats happening at school. Best purchase we ever made.
Indeed.... its a premium down there now.
The landscape has changed alot
*raining in gong at moment.
... if i was being sensible I'd cash out right now at a nice profit. but then what. the daughter unit will be a liftie in 2 years and needing cheap accomodation - there's a real niche market in Jindy at present for another permanent cabin/van park. Pete's Patch is nearly over from what I hear. A van park next to the ski tube would be perfect. Or even better would be affordable units at PV without the ripoff park fees. That's what killed that development more than anything - IMO.
Yeah we are getting off topic
<bet the leaves are shithouse around our vans at Mo>
10 C and constant rain here for the past couple of hours.
EC and GFS predicting warm troughy wet conditions Tuesday & Wednesday next week.
don't look at the cams...
still - we do have weather - and from past comments by Donza that means there is hope. Whereas in 2006 it was just nada right ?? - South Pole satellite view sure looks busy with plenty of action streaming outwards. 700hPa levels are cold over southern half of Oz. And as yet the evil child has not impacted really Australia. But yes don't look at the cams tmw.
I like this kind of optimism . Access i s looking like one of your busy outbreaks might bust out and deliver the goods right at the end of Autumn.Fingers crossed its a long way out
Its like Japan and NZ.
When you don't have weather you have jellyfish highs
Btw its may
May is usually much more boring than this.
I will agree with you
but will it snow in 3 weeks?
I think the spag has alot of promise
don't look at models beyond 72 hours ...cause jesus look at the spag. Those red lines and mean are pretty wide at the moment.
Though thats a seasonal change.
One thing I like. The high pressures are being bullied by a lot of upper level troughs. Its what changes the complexity of the systems .
Not sure rocketboy. On 9 May 2006 i skied from charlotte pass to club lake on solid cover. Didn't get much better than that till first week of July.
May is cold mornings with fog clearing to sunny days with minimal wind. Start of June is the same. Not in 2015 though.
Between now and 3 weeks from now? Yes.
I still see big opportunity for may 29-31. May not dump but we have weather.
Sipping on a pineapple lowee?
North West Pineapple Express...
Good for MV basin & Malee farmers tho.
at least we're arguing about the weather and not climate
Nice moisture feed, pity it's not cold enough.
Spag showing a large cutoff starting to develop in the bight.
So messy Donza, so messy.
I know I keep mentioning the farmers but Western QLD will take anything they can get from any NW feed.
Access suggests some cold air with the second wave of moisture. Looks pre-frontal then maybe ok? Still a ways to go, but some promise there IMO
Friday looks VERY juicy as long as the high don't ridge us out IMO
South Central QLD should see some love this arvo and tomorrow.
Eastern NSW North of the Gong looks like getting a taste during Friday thanks to the ECL.
Duelling trough lines over NSW and QLD should give us something to watch even if this system is light on the white.
Just so n00bs are aware, this is Friday NEXT WEEK we're talking about here.
BTW - SC reading on the 14th was 16.3cm
do you want to create a mega thread CC for SC 2015 ??
feels like spring in Sydney today
Yeah, got that thanks Verm.
Being the chatter thread, I was just commenting on the current system for Central QLD and Northern NSW.
Plenty of in feed from the tropics this week.