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Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Claude Cat, Feb 27, 2015.
prob explains why it feels a bit humid at the moment
Tks, that took a while. Always does of course -- what's that PW again ... and, err, how do you start off a new year? (Seriously guys, much appreciated.)
It was a nice warm lunch at the Pub in North Sydney today. Sweating in the sun...
I would have been at the Rag'n'Famish at lunch but my client postponed the beers until tomorrow
00 UTC GFS
looks like a bit of rain in them charts
It's not the best. I was hoping for it to improve somewhat. Then again we're looking at 192 hours out.
That non-existent trans-Tasman seesaw again.
Yuk Wasn't what I thought but a few days out mad trailing high
A story on Drought conditions in Queensland
weather about to smash us here in the gong
Friday is going to be wet for you.
Sunny morning in Sydney, crappy grey morning in Melbourne, then patches of both back in Sydney this arvo.
Didn't even get window seats to check out the Alps! Boo
Severe Weather Warning
Severe Weather Warning
for damaging winds and heavy rainfall
for people in the Metropolitan, Hunter and Illawarra forecast districts
Issued at 3:27 am EST on Friday 22 May 2015.
DAMAGING WINDS FOR CENTRAL PART OF COAST.
A complex low pressure system is slowly deepening over the western Tasman Sea. A trough extending from the low to near the NSW south coast is expected to intensify and move to the north during the day, with gale-force southerly winds expected to develop along the coastal fringe between Ulladulla and Seal Rocks this morning. Thunderstorms and localised heavy rain are also possible, particularly in the Illawarra where steeper topography may assist in the development.
DAMAGING WINDS averaging 55 to 65 km/h with gusts of 90 km/h are forecast for the coastal fringe of the Illawarra, Metropolitan and Hunter (including the Central Coast) forecast districts today.
Dangerous surf conditions will also develop today, hazardous for coastal activities such as rock fishing, swimming and surfing.
Thunderstorms and heavy rain which may lead to FLASH FLOODING are possible for the Illawarra forecast district.
The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
Move vehicles under cover or away from trees.
Secure or put away loose items around your house, yard and balcony.
Keep clear of fallen power lines.
Don't drive, ride or walk through flood water.
Keep clear of creeks and storm drains.
If you are trapped by flash flooding, seek refuge in the highest available place and ring 000 if you need rescue.
For emergency help in floods and storms, ring your local SES Unit on 132 500.
The next warning will be issued by 11:00 am EST Friday.
This warning is also available through TV and Radio broadcasts; the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 218.
I think I need to start an ECL tally on the whiteboard at home. What is this, the 4th one since the original stormageddon?
yeah , pasha bulker year was same in frequency , just a bit later in the year (was June)
What year was that?
Pasha Bulker 2007 was not a good or bad year with most of July, August and Sept. Spencer Creek snow depth over 1m. Most July and August over 40cm at Deep Creek. Peak was about 165cm. and most of August over 150cm. I would be happy with that.
But I think we are due a +250cm with dry snow like last July but in August this year.... I can always hope.
Fairly average snow year (but wonderful compared to 2006) IIRC
IIRC the ECLs work well for Thredbo? Though delivering rather damp snow and nothing blowa?
Yeah the snowpack that year was very soueast.
anyone got any pixie dust?
Yep and we got that - remember 2012? Well maybe not 250+ but around 200....
Can you ski on it?
Personal experience tells me the snow pack (at Perisher) was dryer and better last year than 2012, Particularly July and August. If you look at Deep Creek the snow pack was much better last year as temps were much lower, hence the good snow conditions and lower snow line. Deep snow at Spencers Creek doesn't always mean it's a good season, specially if the snow line is 1750m and were skiing on elephant snot.
ECMWF winter precip forcast (lacks BOM's big wet plume from the Indian Ocean):
Thats showing a High anchored quite well south of usual.
Notice the easerly inflow into North queensland?
Easterly inflow? Brown == very dry. Wet tropical activity is predicted NE of PNG; would have thought as expected for ENSO state?
Ahhh apologies , I read the graph back to front
BOM equivalent (rather different):
Its got the norwest soaker there.
some big lows hitting perth to
Colour blind? Deuteranopics I know struggle to distinguish dark green from dark brown.
Big wet patch west of Perth in the ECMWF prediction is interesting. I suspect it may be a dynamic model; BOM's is statistical.
Only gets worse at EC. This is September/October/November:
Snow guns on at Perisher.
And Thredbo has put down quite a bit overnight
Buller cranked up also...
Possible snow for Buller on 29th - 30th tho. Fingers crossed.
Can't see the point. Anything they put down now will get washed away later next week.
Surely 30 May will bring something, but it looks pretty weak on the ensembles IMO. The weather still feels unfriendly: MJO quiet (ENSO?) and the AAO's been strongly positive for 5 months now (bad). Maybe there's something-something right on the tail end of the spag right now (6 June) -- it's down to just four lobes and looks slightly more organised than it's been, with strong lobes approaching Perth and Chile. Suggests maybe watch around about 12-14 June.
SAM == AAO; positive bad, negative good: http://blog.metservice.com/2015/02/the-southern-annular-mode-or-sam/
Winter is coming... lovely sunny day here in Bendigo, with our first frost and a -1 start to the day
Be certainly cheaper than a nationwide marketing campaign CC.
This picture is from yesterday, but tonights looks almost identical. Should get down to -7C.
Until we see the real stuff, this will have to do I guess.
Both NSW resorts throwing down some man made again this morning..
Berry cold this morning
Thats impressive how much coverage the snow makers get at friday flat at thredbo..enuff for begginers on opening wknd if it doesnt rain.