Mega Thread The Autumn (SDS Season) Chatter Thread

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Claude Cat, Feb 27, 2015.

  1. ojisan

    ojisan station master Ski Pass: Gold

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    prob explains why it feels a bit humid at the moment
     
  2. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    [​IMG]
     
  3. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    Tks, that took a while. Always does of course -- what's that PW again ... and, err, how do you start off a new year? (Seriously guys, much appreciated.)
     
  4. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    It was a nice warm lunch at the Pub in North Sydney today. Sweating in the sun...
     
  5. ojisan

    ojisan station master Ski Pass: Gold

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    I would have been at the Rag'n'Famish at lunch but my client postponed the beers until tomorrow
     
  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  7. ojisan

    ojisan station master Ski Pass: Gold

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    looks like a bit of rain in them charts
     
  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    It's not the best. I was hoping for it to improve somewhat. Then again we're looking at 192 hours out.
     
  9. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    That non-existent trans-Tasman seesaw again.
     
  10. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

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    Yuk Wasn't what I thought but a few days out mad trailing high
     
  11. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

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  12. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    weather about to smash us here in the gong
     
  13. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Friday is going to be wet for you.
     
  14. kylep

    kylep Cage rattler Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sunny morning in Sydney, crappy grey morning in Melbourne, then patches of both back in Sydney this arvo.
     
  15. kylep

    kylep Cage rattler Ski Pass: Gold

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    Didn't even get window seats to check out the Alps! Boo
     
  16. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/warnings/severe.shtml


    Severe Weather Warning
    IDN28500

    Severe Weather Warning
    for damaging winds and heavy rainfall
    for people in the Metropolitan, Hunter and Illawarra forecast districts

    Issued at 3:27 am EST on Friday 22 May 2015.

    DAMAGING WINDS FOR CENTRAL PART OF COAST.

    Weather Situation
    A complex low pressure system is slowly deepening over the western Tasman Sea. A trough extending from the low to near the NSW south coast is expected to intensify and move to the north during the day, with gale-force southerly winds expected to develop along the coastal fringe between Ulladulla and Seal Rocks this morning. Thunderstorms and localised heavy rain are also possible, particularly in the Illawarra where steeper topography may assist in the development.

    DAMAGING WINDS averaging 55 to 65 km/h with gusts of 90 km/h are forecast for the coastal fringe of the Illawarra, Metropolitan and Hunter (including the Central Coast) forecast districts today.

    Dangerous surf conditions will also develop today, hazardous for coastal activities such as rock fishing, swimming and surfing.

    Thunderstorms and heavy rain which may lead to FLASH FLOODING are possible for the Illawarra forecast district.

    The State Emergency Service advises that people should:

    • Move vehicles under cover or away from trees.
    • Secure or put away loose items around your house, yard and balcony.
    • Keep clear of fallen power lines.
    • Don't drive, ride or walk through flood water.
    • Keep clear of creeks and storm drains.
    • If you are trapped by flash flooding, seek refuge in the highest available place and ring 000 if you need rescue.
    For emergency help in floods and storms, ring your local SES Unit on 132 500.

    The next warning will be issued by 11:00 am EST Friday.

    This warning is also available through TV and Radio broadcasts; the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 218.
     
  17. sbm

    sbm One of Us

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    I think I need to start an ECL tally on the whiteboard at home. What is this, the 4th one since the original stormageddon?
     
  18. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    yeah , pasha bulker year was same in frequency , just a bit later in the year (was June)
     
  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    What year was that?
     
  20. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    2007
     
  21. Nowada

    Nowada Addicted

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    Pasha Bulker 2007 was not a good or bad year with most of July, August and Sept. Spencer Creek snow depth over 1m. Most July and August over 40cm at Deep Creek. Peak was about 165cm. and most of August over 150cm. I would be happy with that.
    But I think we are due a +250cm with dry snow like last July but in August this year.... I can always hope.
     
  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Fairly average snow year (but wonderful compared to 2006) IIRC
     
  23. Angus_McCrory

    Angus_McCrory Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    IIRC the ECLs work well for Thredbo? Though delivering rather damp snow and nothing blowa?
     
  24. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Yeah the snowpack that year was very soueast.
     
  25. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    anyone got any pixie dust?
     
  26. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Yep and we got that - remember 2012? Well maybe not 250+ but around 200....
     
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  27. Nowada

    Nowada Addicted

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    Can you ski on it?

    @FS04
    Personal experience tells me the snow pack (at Perisher) was dryer and better last year than 2012, Particularly July and August. If you look at Deep Creek the snow pack was much better last year as temps were much lower, hence the good snow conditions and lower snow line. Deep snow at Spencers Creek doesn't always mean it's a good season, specially if the snow line is 1750m and were skiing on elephant snot.
     
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  28. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    ECMWF winter precip forcast (lacks BOM's big wet plume from the Indian Ocean):

    [​IMG]
     
  29. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Thats showing a High anchored quite well south of usual.
    Notice the easerly inflow into North queensland?
    very unusual
     
  30. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    Easterly inflow? Brown == very dry. Wet tropical activity is predicted NE of PNG; would have thought as expected for ENSO state?
     
  31. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Ahhh apologies , I read the graph back to front
    doh
    LOL
     
  32. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    BOM equivalent (rather different):

    [​IMG]
     
  33. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Its got the norwest soaker there.
    some big lows hitting perth to
     
  34. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    Colour blind? Deuteranopics I know struggle to distinguish dark green from dark brown.

    Big wet patch west of Perth in the ECMWF prediction is interesting. I suspect it may be a dynamic model; BOM's is statistical.
     
  35. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    Only gets worse at EC. This is September/October/November:

    [​IMG]
     
  36. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snow guns on at Perisher.
     
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  37. AJS

    AJS One of Us

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    And Thredbo has put down quite a bit overnight :)
     
  38. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    Buller cranked up also...

    [​IMG]
     
  39. Loister

    Loister Hard Yards

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    Tennis anyone??

    Possible snow for Buller on 29th - 30th tho. Fingers crossed.
     
  40. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Can't see the point. Anything they put down now will get washed away later next week.
     
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  41. Loister

    Loister Hard Yards

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    #groundcoolingeffect
     
  42. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    Surely 30 May will bring something, but it looks pretty weak on the ensembles IMO. The weather still feels unfriendly: MJO quiet (ENSO?) and the AAO's been strongly positive for 5 months now (bad). Maybe there's something-something right on the tail end of the spag right now (6 June) -- it's down to just four lobes and looks slightly more organised than it's been, with strong lobes approaching Perth and Chile. Suggests maybe watch around about 12-14 June.
     
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  43. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    #marketingEffect.
     
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  45. glug1

    glug1 Addicted

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    Winter is coming... lovely sunny day here in Bendigo, with our first frost and a -1 start to the day :)
     
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  46. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Be certainly cheaper than a nationwide marketing campaign CC.
     
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  47. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    This picture is from yesterday, but tonights looks almost identical. Should get down to -7C.

    [​IMG]

    Until we see the real stuff, this will have to do I guess.
     
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  48. AJS

    AJS One of Us

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    Both NSW resorts throwing down some man made again this morning..
     
  49. benchives

    benchives Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Berry cold this morning
     
  50. melty68

    melty68 One of Us

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    Thats impressive how much coverage the snow makers get at friday flat at thredbo..enuff for begginers on opening wknd if it doesnt rain.