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The Autumn SDS Weather Thread

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Feb 28, 2014.

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  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    So summer is over. and autumn is in.

    GFS and EC have very stable weather over the next week in the SE

    GFS has some interesting weather 200h+ plus, but lets see if that holds up.
     
  2. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Chance of some light showers here and there over Vic, models keep on suggesting bits and pieces but no major rain events. I've got the feeling not much will come from the tropics - mostly cold fronts from the south. Hopefully that carries into winter for a decent snow season.
     
  3. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I kinda hope you're wrong ice, I would like more troughy weather, we get bigger, longer soakings from that compared to frontal systems (for the most part).

    Are you back in AUS mate? How is the ground looking in Gippsland? I was out the top end of WP yesterday and everything around there is pretty dry.
     
  4. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Lots of moisture around Central NSW over the weekend. Dubbo got 70mm over 3 days. Air has turned cold and i've been wearing a jacket all weekend. Thought about lighting the fire last night - but then again i was getting around in shorts. Was just the pyro coming out in me.
     
  5. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS is suggesting there's moisture over the whole SE this week

    [​IMG]
     
  6. cookieman

    cookieman One of Us

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    Melbourne rainfall still very much light on. Glad the extreme heat is now behind us.
    That CC map looks like my body shirt from the 70's.
     
  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC is showing very little for Melbourne, however, where it's important in rural area, we should do ok.
     
  8. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Yeah I've been back since mid last year, was doing a placement in Gippsland over summer. the ground was bone dry from about mid January onwards (ie. after the first heatwave). A 25mm rain event in late January did nothing as it was 40+ again three days later, however the rain mid Feb did make things slightly greener as it wasn't dried out by hot weather again. WP wouldn't have got much from the rain the other week since thunderstorms don't often get down there.

    The models are slowly improving - appears to be more 5-10mm some days in places rather than just isolated 1-5mm patches. It will probably end up troughy sort of weather but not big storms, probably going to be a bit too breezy. Frontal systems are still good for us as we often tend to get 15-20mm where parts of Melboune may get only 7-10mm - but it makes it miserable if you actually want to do anything :o
     
  9. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I would think that a lot of those 5-10mm predictions will end up being 1-5mm, at least until we get a bigger rain event that cleans everything down. It's amazing how after a long dry spell 5-10mm forecast ends up being a couple of mm at best. But then in the middle of winter or early spring 5-10mm can be 20mm.
     
  10. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Pyro is good sign....Bears have fires all season!!
    [​IMG]
     
  11. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    We ended up with 14mm in jindy saturday night. Really need a follow up this week and a washout for saturday, we are 1 for 30 chasing 406​
     
  12. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Steve - we would have good fires together. :metun:
     
  13. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    As long as you bought the rum/coke.
     
  14. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  15. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Really kicking in August this year?
     
  16. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Some cells firing up over Swan Hill and the NE of Victoria.
    I'm not anticipating much action in Melbourne, but we are getting some cloud buildup over the city.
     
  17. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    A couple of cells have just popped up on the radar over the Pucka range, between Seymour and Heathcote.
     
  18. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
     
  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    STW up for Victoria.
    Nice cell to the NW of Melbourne.
     
  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Vic BOM had storms and showers this morning for Melbourne, but it appears we've drawn a blank again.
     
  21. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    It was particularly humid this morning. Radar showing zip though
     
  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yup, completely soaked in sweat after the ride in this morning. Even though it wasn't really warm.
     
  23. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    Finally a bit of sun in Sydney. Happy days.
     
  24. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    After Stormageddon (TM) yesterday, it's back to the usual dark and rainy here again.

    Can't believe the nicest day I've seen in the last fortnight was in Melbourne.
     
  25. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yup. Need a massive system to come and get us going again, then we will get more rain.
     
  26. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    You better believe it mate, your town is a dump.
     
  27. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think Stormageddon is something the Yanks would have come up with, with polar vortices and Hurricane Sandy and what have you.

    Lovely and pleasant here in Melbourne - coolish, but relatively cloud free and sunny. Some rain would be nice - I agree with Verm about needing a powerful system to alter these continuously benign conditions here. While pleasant, it gets boring
     
  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  29. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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  30. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I guess technically this is more earthquake damage CC since the worst affected areas are those that have suffered significant liquefaction during the quakes and major subsidence since. Which is not to say the storm itself wasn't bad but pre-earthquake Christchurch would have probably weathered this storm much better.
     
  31. Telemark Phat

    Telemark Phat Pass the butter Ski Pass: Gold

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    Berridale is getting smashed with a lot of rain wind and golf ball sized hail.
     
  32. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  33. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sydney coast looking sensational, green az bro
     
  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  35. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Also seeing something Wednesday - AXS giving a significant rain event with 20+mm from Melbourne to East Gippsland. GFS less extreme with 5-15mm, but something has been in this window for a few days now. Fingers crossed.
     
  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Hope so. EC has bumped up the precip for Wednesday on this evening's run. I haven't been game to go with it quite yet.
     
  37. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Latest figures for Sunday 16th next week are looking good. Mt K and co might look quite enticing if it holds. South pole POV cloud map looks great at the moment. Plenty of weather brewing with broad areas of speckled cloud visible in lows off Cape Hope and Cape Horn.

    Also Jindy is starting to green up nicely as the harsh summer heat retreats and the rains keep falling. Should look very lush in a couple of weeks. Or as lush as these parts ever look.
     
  38. Angus_McCrory

    Angus_McCrory Old n' Crusty

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    Perfect early autumn day in Sydney today. Lap of Bondi Beach first thing (water a lovely 22c in) followed by 30kms on the bike around Centennial Park.
     
  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    High 20s here in Melbourne. Gorgeous day.
     
  40. cookieman

    cookieman One of Us

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    heading up to hotham.
    hot in the NE with storm clouds in the distance
     
  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I forecast you will see a lot of cyclists tomorrow. 3 peaks challenge.
     
  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    STW warning up for the NE and Gippsland.

    [​IMG]
     
    #42 Claude Cat, Mar 8, 2014
    Last edited: Mar 8, 2014
  43. cookieman

    cookieman One of Us

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    wild electrical storm now at dinner plain.
    most of the activity south of the divide.
    clear in the north.
    we are here to ride and support friends doing 3 peaks.
     
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  44. benchives

    benchives Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Can't get Ollie out of the water. He was really upset when I told him we had to go home!
     
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  45. cold wombat

    cold wombat Twitter Contributer Social Media Mod

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    ^^ Memories. :)
     
  46. benchives

    benchives Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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  47. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Now looking like a semi decent front for southern Vic for Tuesday night with 5-20mm forecast. Chance of follow up at the end of next weekend according to AXS.
     
  48. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Next couple of weeks are looking great. An early tease on Wednesday. A Mt K special on Sunday nite, and a possible third strike around Mar 25/26. Satellite looks good.
     
  49. cookieman

    cookieman One of Us

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    mild blue bird day at DP
    great for an early ride
     
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  50. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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