The Autumn SDS Weather Thread

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Feb 28, 2014.

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  1. climberman

    climberman CloudRide1000 Legend Ski Pass: Gold

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    fark donza! Fair bit of debris on the bridges over the lagoon at Northgong today. Small landslip closed the shared path near the baths as well.
     
  2. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Cheers ..Yeah and surf looks nice as LOL
    Am off to ring the council and see what their TCM will do about this.
    Cause something must have let go, I guess it could have been a log jam further up..but it was a shed load of water last night
     
  3. cold wombat

    cold wombat Twitter Contributer Social Media Mod Ski Pass: Gold

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    Close call there Donz. Good luck with the clean up.
     
  4. cold wombat

    cold wombat Twitter Contributer Social Media Mod Ski Pass: Gold

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    Few large drops so far. Clouds look a little more promising.
     
  5. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Radar actually looks kind of promising for you guys :)

    Still a slight amount of disagreement between models on where the rain will be for southern Vic, but looking fantastic for the northern half of the state. AXS has it pretty well finishing by Saturday outside the Alps, but GFS is seeing possible shower activity right through to next week.
     
  6. cold wombat

    cold wombat Twitter Contributer Social Media Mod Ski Pass: Gold

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    Radar looks nice, but so far hills are picking up most of what the coastal defences miss. Will get a little out of it, but as usual Perth rain will be very localised.
     
  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS rainfall distribution for this system is now closer to what EC has been saying for a few days.

    [​IMG]
     
  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    The rain is working its way to the NE Victoria. I expect we'll see it make Melbourne later this evening for 10-15mm rain.
     
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  9. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Does feel pretty warm and humid already. What about the chance of a storm later Claude?
     
  10. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I'd say a chance for this afternoon.

    [​IMG]

    Better chance tomorrow afternoon.
    [​IMG]
     
  11. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Least there is something to get a little excited about. Will be watching the development over the day with interest.
     
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  12. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Whats with the Blue circle engulfing Mitta Mitta!!! Darkest Blue indeed!
    Wos that little diagram predicting?? And Mildura even a tone darker!!:yum:
     
  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    An increase of chance of thunderstorms in that area.
     
  14. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Firing storms in the NW of the state, Mildura to get smashed again?

    Looks like more soaking and consistent rain for the central parts of the state, with higher falls on the ranges as usual.
     
  15. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looks to be passing north of Mildura, heading SW. Renmark might cop it.
     
  16. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just looking at the radar loop and the way this system is coming down from the NE, and over the ranges. Do you think we'll see a fairly strong rain shadow effect to reduce falls over the Melbourne metro area?
     
  17. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes, but more likely now and then at the end of the system. As the trough deepens tomorrow and sits in the right spot we will be OK rainfall-wise.
     
  18. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Perhaps a little. The rain shadow from NE direction never seems to be a strong as the one for systems heading in from the NW (Macedon / Kilmore gap)
     
  19. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thanks gents, I knew you'd have the answer. There's a reason I lurked in these parts for many years before joining. Pretty much just for the weather. :cheers:
     
  20. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    As you can see on the radar, compared to other systems it seems like it's dying out as it gets through the dividing range, so there is a bit of a shadow effect at the moment, similar to what ECL's do for Melbourne. But that should disappear as the trough gets down to us.
     
  21. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep, certainly noticing that.
     
  22. cookieman

    cookieman One of Us

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    nice haircut edge !
    zero rain in melb northern suburbs
    our gardens in inner north-east hanging out for the long awaited soaking.
     
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  23. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    20mm rain at Mildura in a short time-span (3pm - 3:20pm)
     
  24. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

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    Potential heat wave next week.
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  25. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Pretty widespread falls but generally lowish (but welcome) falls, particularly in the Norf and Norf-East. Falls and Buffalo with around 25mm apiece. Otherwise, 10+ mm seem to have been recorded in many places
     
  26. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    100mm+ at Merimbula in the 24 hours.

    Although the only thing to worry about is a potential heat wave next week. :rolleyes: Bias at the BoM? Not even once.
     
  27. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    only 4mm here in Elwood overnight. Enough to make everything nice and wet and Elsternwick park will be nice and green again.
    Potentially we can get another 5-10mm today/tonight with the system still moving towards S-SE today and overnight.
    Models suggesting something for the start of next week now also.
     
  28. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Unpossible Chowder. Heatwave is coming.
     
  29. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    pouring here
    over f..kken it

    anyone know about submersible lawn mowers?
     
  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    We've had about 3mm overnight. Might get another 5-10mm if we're lucky.
     
  31. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    In the olden days - it was called an "Indian Summer" - but that's probably not PC thesedays. ;)
     
  32. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Pretty good rain here in Sandy for the past 30 mins and looks to continue.
    Radar looking good for the next few hrs. should get 5-10mm.
    If we get some clear later this arvo, with this heat and moisture, there is a small potential for a storm later tonight also IMO.
     
  33. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Followed by a potential cut-off. Might go summer to winter in a few days. Pretty standard Melbourne.
     
  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Not seeing a heatwave in Melbourne, although it might get a bit sticky next Wednesday. Looks like a bit of rain late Wednesday through Thursday morning with a weak troughy (?) system.
    Inland SA will be hot though.

    [​IMG]
     
  35. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Very nice rain in dubbo for the last 24 hours. Just steady soaking stuff. About 50mm so far. Last 5 weeks have been very good out this way with regular top ups. Even my sandy lawn hasn't required watering.
     
  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looks like it's clearing in Melbourne. Totals of 5-10mm received, perhaps a little less than expected.
     
  37. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah not the totals we were hoping for. Although not really that surprising, pitching your hopes on a trough that far east is wishful thinking.
     
  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I couldn't see any more than 15mm for the metro area, so I'm not that disappointed.
     
  39. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    1.30 weather update - Sydney
    Rain
    8/8th clouds
     
  40. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Who said Indian Summer?:confused:

    Yes well Somebody always seems to be offended whatever!! Bears have been practising :confused:Jaithmangals:cool: but nobody appears to know what they are muttering about....

    Wang sorry Wangaratta appears to be continuing with warm conditions mins of 14 and maxs of 30degC

    with a little rain here and there after this current event....

    We do like the sub/continental summer as much work still to be carried out all over the shop in and around BHP's

    And for those wanting to thro a sicky Team Bears say Monday looks good with sunny & settled with expected top of 30deg....
    :thumbs:
     
    #240 Ubiquitous Steve, Mar 27, 2014
    Last edited: Mar 27, 2014
  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Some lines streaming in from the North. Might yet get a few mm later this afternoon in Melbourne.
     
  42. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Heaviest of those look to be heading E a little, if the W showers fill in we might get a few alright drops
     
  43. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Steve

    This may help da bears:

    http://ian-folly.blogspot.com.au/2011/06/jaithmathangs.html
    :thumbs:
     
  44. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bears want to see a direct assault on the Yit ma thangs mounted immediately from the West Kiewa Side not a folly of a walk from Pretty Valley but a genuine assault from Diamintina Horse Yards direct!!!! They keep saying U Nicked Ma Thongs but they are warming to the traditional tribal name!!!! Oh we have drifted off topic again..sorry CC,:p[​IMG]
     
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  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS suggesting some storm activity next Tuesday.
    [​IMG]
     
  46. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes the rain seems to right through the central part of NSW. Just drove back from Jugiong ( between Gundagai and Yass) and it was rain all the way down yesterday from Kiama - all last night and all this morning - wonderful steady drizzle with the occasional heavy downpour.

    The Hume Hwy was fluorescent green on both sides most of the way - other than a small area around Yass which was mostly dead grass tufts surrounded by grey dry dirt. Meanwhile, the NSW South Coast is alive with the sounds of way to many insects and screeching birds - and paddocks filled cows gorging themselves on knee high grass.

    And temps up in the Southern Highlands were coolish and very much in tune with a normal Autumn pattern.
     
  47. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's the spring unsettled stormy weather we didnt have last year. I like it.

    Kinda dark this morning, especially for 8am as I look out the window at work now. Time for daylight savings to end.
     
  48. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    100% agree, my alarm went off at 630 as it does every morning and I thought someone was playing tricks on me it was so dark.
     
  49. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    What are max temp predictions for NE Vic towards end of next week..The Team sees that high of 33degC for Wangaratta is forecast for Thursday and we are wondering what models predict after that....CC's earlier post of a big red southern continent for Wed seem correlated to this BOM forecast...
     
  50. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Not a lot of agreement in the models late next week in the 'shape' of systems but both have it fairly wet

    GFS
    [​IMG]

    EC seems to have the moisture a bit further north.

    Either way, I can't see it much warmer than about 20-22C Thursday / Friday in the NE of Vic. Possibly a fair bit cooler later. Will be down to single digit maximums on the alps. IMO
     
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