Mega Thread The Autumn, winter's not far away thread!

Discussion in 'Weather' started by jwx, Mar 1, 2017.

  1. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    [​IMG]
    Raging madden julian oscillation in the IO. Bottom line is the mjo is rain moving over ocean. Floods on the way?
     
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  2. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    [​IMG]
     
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  3. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Maybe if it doesn't weaken too much.
    [​IMG]
     
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  4. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    [​IMG]
    Edit: Link fixed.
     
    #4 Jellybeans1000, Mar 1, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 1, 2017
  5. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    Some where will get big rains i think actual location atm imo dart board .

    UKMET looks to have done a nice job with the mjo.
    [​IMG]


    @Jellybeans1000 some of your graphics are not showing They ars showing up as expired, not all just a few. Here is a free one that works ok for me. No need to register just upload click the image and copy the addy. https://imgsafe.org/

    Also expecting a decent wwb across the EQ from this cckw.
     
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  6. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Sorry jwx, at work where there is a filter on image sharing websites. Will update the links at home. UKMET looks better for Australian rain than other RMM predictions I have seen.

    Edit: Your link worked, thanks!
     
    #6 Jellybeans1000, Mar 1, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 1, 2017
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  7. Hermon

    Hermon Dedicated Member

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    Phase 3 & 4 are meant to be good for rainfall in inland Vic according to those charts, but the current 10 day forecast says we'll get zip.

    Incidentally, Antarctic sea ice has turned a corner and is now refreezing (from a record minimum extent since reliable records began in 1979). In winter 2014 it was at record maximum extent.
     
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  8. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    You have to consider the strength of a mjo not all are the same, obliviously this is a vigorous one -5.sigma on M V's realtime plot.

    It will no doubt intensify a MT. Ultimately the 850MB flow is mostly always
    from the NW WA to the SE sink.
     
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  9. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Most plots aren't quite as extreme as MV's but I do follow his tweets and MJO plots frequently.
     
  10. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Good movement of thread.
    It only gets cooler from here... except in Melbourne.
     
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  11. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    Daytime temps on western side of the main range are staying stable but night time mins are slowly decreasing .
     
  12. Scoober

    Scoober Active Member

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    Showers, sunny, showers, sunny and humid as!! Repeat 100 times per day and thats the weather on the Central Coast NSW at the moment. Beats the 35+ days though
     
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  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  14. Tanuki

    Tanuki Dedicated Member
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    Up until 2 days ago we were getting some nice cool nights here in Smelbourne. Seems we're now going to have the first extended run of hot and warm weather all 'summer'. We still have not had a stationary high over the SE since about March last year.
     
  15. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
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    just in time for winter
     
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  16. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    That's good news if it is re-covering, has a long way to go.

    [​IMG]
     
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  17. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    Peninsula has been great every day this week, seabreeze has come through and cooled everything down nicely right on sunset.
     
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  18. Kimski

    Kimski Well-Known Member

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    Too much Summer here in Adelaide. Not enjoying this after escaping to European winter for a few weeks in January and February :(
     
  19. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
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    After slowing getting the hang of reading the GFS and a few other weather charts for Japan this year, I'd also like to get a better understanding of how to read Aus weather patterns and maps.
     
  20. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    If you understand 500mb Geopotential Height charts, MSLP, temperature and precipitation charts from GFS, you're pretty good IMO. I've learnt 90% of my weather knowledge basically by reading lots and lots of webpages, books and these days, studies.

    The Aussie weather systems that matter for snow are cut off lows, East Coast Lows and cold fronts.
    I am sure you will find more here.
    http://www.bom.gov.au/lam/glossary/apagegl.shtml
    http://www.bom.gov.au/info/weathmap/weathmap.htm

    I'm sure others will chip their links in too:)
     
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  21. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
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    Thanks Jelly, helpful as always :thumbs:
     
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  22. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    Have a few troughs:

    [​IMG]
     
  23. Undies

    Undies Part of the Furniture
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    Are we about to see our first ECL of the season? Albeit very weak and not formed from a front, but still.....very wet here in Sydney.
     
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  24. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Could be a bit stormy here in Victoria tomorrow afternoon. Especially over the high country.


     
  25. Undies

    Undies Part of the Furniture
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    I bought an umbrella for the trip home, so of course it's stopped raining now.
     
  26. Tanuki

    Tanuki Dedicated Member
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    Noooooo. Not want for winter unless sing over central AUS
     
  27. Tanuki

    Tanuki Dedicated Member
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    Muggy and humid as f this arvo in St Kilda
     
  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Pretty shitty day really.
     
  29. Tanuki

    Tanuki Dedicated Member
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    Strange, cool SE wind this morning then when that dissipated yuk
     
  30. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    I doubt very much that NSW rainfall will in any way resemble what you see there.
     
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  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    I think we wont see much TBH.
     
  32. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    .....................ummm ,.................let me just check something in the very immediate future............
     
  33. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    Severe weather warning for south coast NSW. Watching some very heavy looking clouds cross over us now heading inland towards Wagga and north of Wagga. Hasn't dropped much here at Tumbarumba , maybe 1mm so far. Looks most likely that the bulk of it will stay coastal
     
  34. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Sun came out at Avalon. Different in Melbourne I guess...
     
  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Tasman Low; yes. Highly unlikely it we'll see an official ECL IMO.
     
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  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Sun came out here too. But muggy as hell.
     
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  37. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Bit too early I would suggest. Though we did have a February snowfall...
     
  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Too early? It's already labelled a Low by BOM. But all models suggest an offshore track and downgraded on previous runs.
    No coastal forecast over 30kts winds.

    By definition ECL's:
    • Gale or storm force winds along the coast and adjacent waters
    • Heavy widespread rainfall leading to flash and/or major river flooding,
    • Very rough seas and prolonged heavy swells over coastal and ocean waters which can cause damage to the coastline.
    Again, Tasman Low yes, ECL not likely.
     
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  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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  40. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  41. SMSkier

    SMSkier Dedicated Member

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    There has been about 10 mm rain as I look out over the paddocks here at Moonbah. It's not a lot but better than nothing. Peaks in the near distance are Crackenback with Perisher not far off so good to get some much needed rain here and in the mountains. We need this for the farms and over the coming months it would be good to see more as the cold temps set in up the hill. Helps with the freeze and base setting once May comes around.
     
  42. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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  43. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Have only had 13mm today at Ulladulla.
    It's been very localised with it's intensity so likely higher readings up and down the Coast.
    See what happens as the system develops over the warm SST's
    [​IMG]
     
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  44. SnowBound

    SnowBound Dedicated Member

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    been chucking it down for most of the evening here Sydney's northern beaches. Last time I checked there was a warning for flash flooding in the metro
     
  45. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    We might be lucky.
    Still looking wet but CMC & GFS modelling most of the precip out to sea.
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  46. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
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    Long way out but something might be cooking around the 15th.
     
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  47. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
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    It was a joke in homage to the endless high that ruins many a June.
     
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  48. Undies

    Undies Part of the Furniture
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    Rather soggy run around the harbour this morning. Sydney sure is wet. Some nice little waterfalls out, though.
     
  49. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
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    Not seeing those rainfall totals. Forecast for Kiama area today was 80-150mm. But the rain seems to be coming in showers rather endless torrential rain - which is good as the windows and gutters are coping well so far.
     
  50. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    GFS with humid sub/tropical airflow sinking into the SE if it verifies,
    should be some interesting weather about next w/end
    [​IMG]