Mega Thread The Autumn, winter's not far away thread!

Discussion in 'Weather' started by jwx, Mar 1, 2017.

  1. Hermon

    Hermon Dedicated Member

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    Looks like a significant dump of rain (ie. 50mm+) here tonight and tomorrow. Might even get the creeks and rivers running...

    Next week it appears things will turn cold. Decent front according to all the main forecast models (especially GFS) after Anzac Day.
     
  2. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve Addicted Member
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    Been like summer in North East...so far...been good for track clearing and other bush activities.
    All forest roads are hard and dry...

    Team Bears are not putting on new mud terrain tyres yet.

    Rain on the way for Victoria.....this is interesting:whistle:
     
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  3. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    models recently are not worth a cracker past 3 days.

    The EC has a cold snap on the 24/25
     
    #703 jwx, Apr 20, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 20, 2017
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  4. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Yes hence my recent postings trying to get a handle also, they've worth just as much ;)
     
  5. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    @nfip don't sell yourself short you do ok.
     
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  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    @jwx on the money, if GFS is anything to go by... Nice upper level cut-off heading for Northern NSW which looks to develop into a very healthy ECL/Tasman Low by the dying days of April.
     
  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    EC strongly backing the 26th again on the 00z run. Models starting to come to similar conclusion here. Not looking as good as the falls a fortnight ago but it's showing it's teeth forsure.
     
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  8. snowblowa

    snowblowa Dedicated Member

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    So true dat.....I've worked or attended every ANZAC day game at the G since they started in '95 I think, and they are either unseasonably warm (29 degrees about 8-9 years ago?) or friggin' cold outbreak material (hail and 14 degrees). I reckon about 7-8 years ago, I was coming back in from a dart (quit now), and Lou Richards was with his daughter at the lifts, on his way to a Corporate Suite I look after, it was dead set 11 degrees! Lou was in his wheel chair with a thick blanket over his legs, and when I said to him "how are you Lou?", he replied " it's bloody cold isn't it son?!". Gold. Off topic, but a nice weather/legend moment all the same......
     
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  9. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Bigger piccy.
    Spoonta in a month or so if the pattern holds.
    Dat fetch off the cap....
    [​IMG]
     
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  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Big amplitude is the semi-perturbed polar vortex working it's magic.
     
  11. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    TIme we start to Spag ....
    [​IMG]
     
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  12. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Troppo not so much ...
    [​IMG]
     
  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    BOM on board for Wednesday - Buller, Thredbo respectively.


    YrNo/EC for Perisher (Temps!)
     
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  14. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
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    Five year cycle is looking good.

    ANZAC Day 2012 at the Pass.

     
  15. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Still not seeing much buoyancy for the 26th .
     
  16. cookieman

    cookieman Dedicated Member
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    Raining heavily in Melbourne.
    most of Victoria should get wellabove average rainfall totals this month in contradiction to BOM long term forecast of below average.
     
  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Looks like that trough has come further east than expected.
    The forecasts and warnings were all for the west and north of the state, but it looks more central.
     
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  18. glug1

    glug1 Active Member

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    36mm overnight in my gauge (bendigo)
     
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  19. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    There's been plenty of rain in the west though, some areas receiving >50mm. Not complaining here.
     
  20. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
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    So april 9 and then april 26 ...
    Reckon by about May 11 we will know if tbe pattern is holding
     
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  21. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Bouyancy ? :confused:

    Looks cold and windy .
    Wet on Anzac day in Vic. later in the day for SW NSW

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
    #721 nfip, Apr 21, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 21, 2017
  22. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU Dedicated Member
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    Woomelang has had 103mm in 24hrs. Crazy figures for their location - north west VIC
     
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  23. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Sorry I have been gone camping in Northern Victoria without wifi.
    Happy to report some heavy rains along the Murray at Cobram.
    Decided to get out of there...
     
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  24. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Anyway 26-27 April period... EPS Control forecasts

    FLs of 1300-1400m according to 850mb temps.
    [​IMG]
    500mb temps around -20 degrees. I wouldn't expect great snow.
    [​IMG]
    Dusting-5cm on EPS Control, as well as GFS for Baw Baw with a SSW-SW flow.
    [​IMG]
    Looks like a Tasmanian snow kind of system.
     
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  25. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    22mm in the jar at Tumbarumba , most of that early this morning. Clearing now from the north.
     
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  26. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    88 point for old school cockies.
     
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  27. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve Addicted Member
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    Heavy rain at moment in Melbs SE Subs...limited area on Bom radar!
     
  28. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    Bogong season is upon us !!!! Saw my first the other night , tonight the light in the shed has attracted a cast of thousands so to speak. Well ok ..........maybe a hundred or so but still a significant number.
     
  29. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon Active Member

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    Bom have ramped up the rain snow totals for NSW resorts Tuesday Wednesday
     
  30. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    Decent fog this morning in Tumbarumba
     
  31. Principal Douglas

    Principal Douglas Addicted Member
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    Late, quick dump coming on Wednesday. :emoji_snowflake: not :crap:, you clowns
     
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  32. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    [​IMG]
    Another potential snow system for Tassie 1-3 May? 1400m on EC ATM.
     
  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Great insight. How much and where?
     
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  34. Principal Douglas

    Principal Douglas Addicted Member
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    Is this a prediction thread? :rolleyes:

    Let's say 10cm at the top of Thredbo by Wednesday night, after quite a bit of rain.
     
  35. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    Crossing the African continent at the moment, but it looks like it's weakening as it does so. Hopefully it will re-form, although I am a little nervous about the high ridging it out in the models over the coming days. It's got a chance of becoming cut off, although I dont know if that's a good thing (snow-wise) as it doesnt look particularly cold.
     
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  36. Hermon

    Hermon Dedicated Member

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    00Z GFS has the May 1 system looking rather cold. It probably won't hang around for long though.
     
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  37. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    The May 1-3 System is getting colder every run.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    GFS has 1400m for the Alps.
    EC has 1700-1800m for the Alps
    Precipitation has maybe a dusting on EC and 10-15cm on GFS.
    But plenty of time for it to pan out.
     
  38. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Hour 384 on GFS looks okay too. But 16 days...
     
  39. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
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    Oh look that makes it around may 11....
     
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  40. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    Looks like more normal temps predicted for this time of the year in Tumba , getting colder at last.
     
  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  42. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Well. I certainly got todays system all wrong 6 days out. :rolleyes:
     
  43. cookieman

    cookieman Dedicated Member
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    just ticked over 90mm in rain gauge here in Ivanhoe for April.
    Looking good to break the ton.
    Garden is loving it.
     
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  44. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    " Niiiice Gary "
     
  45. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    27mm at Tumbarumba since 01.00 today. Steady , soaking rain which doesn't look like stopping for several hours.
     
  46. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Good going from 10 or so days .
    For the record.
     
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  47. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Not bad for Spring.
     
  48. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
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    Looks like El Nino 2017 is DOA ... Main ENSO forecast will be up on BOM on Wed.

    [​IMG]
     
  49. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU Dedicated Member
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    The colours in Bright and surrounds were beautiful in my time there this past week.

     
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  50. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Will take some model clearing after the current system logs data but GFS 18Z has gone large for the next node. EC has a similar cut-off scenario dialed in but less heavy handed.
    I am putting this here for snow porn purposes more than a likely outcome @ 174 hours out.
    [​IMG]
     
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