Mega Thread The Autumn, winter's not far away thread!

Discussion in 'Weather' started by jwx, Mar 1, 2017.

  1. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    I observe 192hrs is joining a few dots here.
     
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  2. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Yeah your thoughts are correct. The current SAM forecasts agree with this too. GEFS and POAMA ensembles(below) both predict SAM going from the highest SAM point since Sept 2016, back to Neutral and perhaps into the Negative phase. This would mean the lows are less tight around the poles and agrees with jwx's potential rossby wave event. Overall if everything adds up, you would be expecting a potentially big late May/ Early June snow event. That would give the resorts some natural snow to work with prior to QBW.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    Funny you mention the Polar and Ferrel Cells...

    Current events... You can see the Polar jetstream (between polar and Ferrel cells) at about 300mb and 55S latitude.
    [​IMG]
    And in 10 days, it is weaker and closer to the poles. Perhaps this weaker jetstream makes it easier for the LWT/rossby waves penetrate deeper into the mid latitudes. Hopefully making it snow! :D:skier:
    [​IMG]
    Just a bit of an hypothesis really... will watch it pan out over the next month. Hopefully the QBW skiers will have something more than Bourke Street and FV...
     
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  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    1-3JUN worth monitoring over the next week or so until that beast of a system clears SW/Perth next weekend.
    [​IMG]
     
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  4. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    I definitely like the look of the 1-6 June event on EC Monthly Control. Looks to have a fair amount of snow in it though. Given it's more than two weeks away though, poor chance of this exact system actually occurring. But something should happen from now to QBW, given a meandering jetstream(-SAM) and a favourable MJO. Only time will tell...

    Edit: CFS shows a Tassie only system for this period. 2 out of 3 isn't bad I guess...
     
    #954 Jellybeans1000, May 14, 2017
    Last edited: May 14, 2017
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  5. benchives

    benchives Part of the Furniture
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    Blocking highs

    Story of 2017

    Calling it now - season is over already

    Go to nz

    Never.forget. #donna
     
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  6. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Bishop takes Queen for the 24th even at 750 just a bit of token spent vort behind the main moisture .
     
  7. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Yeah that one at the moment looks to drench the Eastern Seaboard, but not cold enough for snow. Maybe some snow at Bluff Knoll associated with that system.

    The main focus on snow for me is turning to June.
     
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  8. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
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    taking calls for how much rain for katoomba next saturday.... how wet are @Undies and i going to get?
     
  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    ~10mm. TBH it was looking a lot worse during the week...
     
    #959 POW_hungry, May 14, 2017
    Last edited: May 14, 2017
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  10. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
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    yep it is looking much better.. considering i will be out all day on friday at blackheath in the field, i was steeling myself to be cold and damp for a couple of days.
     
  11. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  12. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    Hey put put the brakes on. It's only week two of May.
    "Season is over already" A ridiculous and pessimistic statement.

    Omega blocks setups are normal with the changing season.
     
    #962 jwx, May 14, 2017
    Last edited: May 14, 2017
  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    May and even June invariably have long periods of blocking highs. It's quite normal.
     
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  14. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    bah humbug you miserable fokker LOL
     
  15. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    and....
    Blocking highs story of our eternal winters.
    always has , always will.
     
  16. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Looking better than last year so far IMO.
     
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  17. tele-whippet

    tele-whippet beard stroker
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    White Mothers Day.
    Hail, Ben Bullen NSW CTs

    c/- FB
     
  18. Arsas

    Arsas Active Member

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    I know its early days but the 22nd to the 24th showing up on Yr for Perisher.
    10 cm rain followed buy 40cm snow
     
  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    All will be revealed after this weekend IMO. The lack of alignment between GFS & EC says to me it's at around 50/50 chance of delivering snow, but I think you can expect a reduction in those totals in the next 4-5m days IMO.
     
  20. Undies

    Undies Part of the Furniture
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    Thinking we might be getting a bit cold at the starting line.
     
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  21. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
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    My early season optimism index is now at +1. There is hope yet for the June Ski Club to bypass the Carpet and head straight into the Cattle Yard ...
     
  22. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    I'm happy to see the base of the magic carpet wasn't destroyed by r**n over the weekend ;)

    [​IMG]
     
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  23. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    GFS 228 upgraded this morning fwiw.
     
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  24. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    GFS Vert Velocity positive with temps to match. Might be hope in this one yet
     
    #974 Kletterer, May 15, 2017
    Last edited: May 15, 2017
  25. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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  26. Principal Douglas

    Principal Douglas Addicted Member
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  27. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU Dedicated Member
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    I am going up to Falls for my annual pre-season trip on the 27th - 29th. Be nice if there is some white stuff on the ground to enjoy
     
  28. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    you doing the Ultra Trail ?
     
  29. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    Indeed it looks a v/healthy complex cutoff on paper.

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]



    [​IMG]
    I like the look of that stinger band on the low.
     
    #979 jwx, May 15, 2017
    Last edited: May 15, 2017
  30. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    I guess we just need to wait and see how the timing of detachment ends up
     
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  31. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    Those plots by AB above are top notch GFS used by noaa with presentations.

    EC forecasts the low pressure to spread well up into N-NSW

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]

    Depicts a direct polar jet stream feeding the uppers into the low.
     
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  32. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Yep.The feed seems to have some good depth.
     
  33. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Jet stream porn
     
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  34. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    I'm sitting here waiting for the downgrade. Don't hate me.
     
  35. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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  36. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Nothing better than a good map of Tassie IMO.
     
  37. woggybot

    woggybot Dedicated Member

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    The L over WA has got some bite.
    Esperance readings:
    21.9C at 12:30pm
    14.1C at 2:00pm

    Hope this thing carries over to the Alps with its grunt!
     
  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    EC really the only one leading the charge on this one, both the Canuck and GFS seem flaky on it.
    IMO it's no season starter but certainly needs more time.
     
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  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    ...I think you may be confusing this one with the one that's due through SW WA this weekend. The current cut-off spin out into the mainland through the Bight.
     
  40. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    [​IMG]
    EPS Control looking nice for the May 21-25th event.
    [​IMG]
    10-20cm for the Main Range and Victorian Alps.
    [​IMG]
    EPS Control looks for a good June 1-3 system but doesn't quite get there...
     
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  41. Undies

    Undies Part of the Furniture
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    Yup. Might be the Ultra Soggy Trail, depending on how things pan out.
     
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  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Clearly not everyone's in the same boat for the 24th. @192hrs I think it's wishful thinking ATM.
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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  43. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
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    I think this Saturday's piss up that BOM currently has penciled in for 20mm should take care of that pathetic looking patch of machine snow. However, based on my new postive outlook this will be the last rain event until mid September.
     
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  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    For me, it's the next bubble of cold air behind and south of that finger of cold air in the bight on the 29th EPS. So looking more like the 2-5th now.

    You'll notice every front progged in the mid-latitudes (~43-30S) of recent weeks is picking up a lot of pre-frontal from tropical influence. For this reason I think we're really going to want something from the deep south (sub-roaring forties) to get things started this season IMO.
    PWAT Anomaly says it all really. Look where all the waters coming from...
    [​IMG]
     
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  45. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    I am guessing that Tropical influence would be increased by a favourable MJO that is due soonish. Been several instances where a strong cold front has been progged in the long long term.
     
  46. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    EC likes a maturing incoming Ul 988mb cyclone.

    [​IMG]




    GFS/EC not really wide apart on priority models atm. GFS is actually showing
    a deeper cutoff low. Being eight days out is not that far out for the models.
    Its quite possible there maybe upgrades on this system.
    [​IMG]




    [​IMG]


    EC/GFS in bed together.
    [​IMG]

    EC stand alone.
    [​IMG]

    I like the look of the guidance atm,
    Check again later in the week.
     
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  47. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Downgrade on EC 12z run, with it slipping to the South.
     
  48. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Very well defined eye to the ECL.
    Poor old mates in unzud are going to cop it large in the next couple of days.
     
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  49. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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  50. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    For the 23-26 May,
    [​IMG]
    GFS: Snow level of perhaps 1800-2000m.
    [​IMG]
    EC looks similar 1700-2000m.
    [​IMG]
    EPS Control similar too.

    IMO doesn't look like much of a snow bearing cold front except for maybe Tassie peaks and the Main Range. Defnitely not a season starter by any means.
     
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