Mega Thread The Autumn, winter's not far away thread!

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by jwx, Mar 1, 2017.

  1. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    And the change in anomolies- May and June . Are we headed for an old school Winter ?
     
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  2. Tanuki

    Tanuki Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Feels like early autumn today. 20 and blazing sunshine in Smelbourne
     
  3. Tanuki

    Tanuki Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hope so
     
  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    More an indication of how the LWT & upper jet is fairing for the Autumn season. Any reason why you suggest it's reminiscent of an 'old school winter'?
     
  5. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Not suggesting really- more a question and wishful thinking.
     
  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    No worries, it's an interesting point though as GFS/EC over recent run periods both have a very westerly flow, indicative of a strengthening polar vortex, low amplitude LWT and blazing upper level jet - noticeably around Aus.
    that said, I don't think it has any correlation to winters of the 20 century... Just a general obs as we head into a winter pattern. eg. below
    [​IMG]
     
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  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Perth has picked up some 25mm since Friday. Quite a bit under what was progged by the models 4-5 days ago.
     
  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just dawned on me that this probably has some influence from the MJO entering our phase, although appears to be weakening significantly.
    [​IMG]
     
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  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS 00z run has the polar jet favoring NZ in the first week of June now. Can't wait to see what EC has to say.
     
  10. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Par for the course at this time of year, the models always look great 4-5 days out then reality sets in.
     
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  11. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Possibly also related to the upwelling/downwelling phases of the Kelvin Wave ?
     
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  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 00Z run is keeping it's head low over the next 10 days - somewhat uninspiring for Aus resorts.
     
  13. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    EC is a stall then east it goes.

    [​IMG]

    EC MJO ens for the month
    [​IMG]
     
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  14. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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  15. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, well, it's going to snow on Wednesday above 1700m in NSW. 1-6 cm at this stage. BoM 4 day rule applies.
     
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  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM are being very optimistic for Wednesday PM IMO.
    It's looking a lot drier than previous runs and I doubt we'll see much settle below 1900m - a dusting at best above that IMO.

    Kosciusko Sounding looking dry and warmish for Wednesday arvo.
    [​IMG]
     
  17. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    The weather couldn't be any duller if it tried to be at the moment. I recall the same last year in Melbourne and then all of a sudden in the final week of May winter hit with a week of cold fronts.
     
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  18. Tanuki

    Tanuki Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    yep, it was a long tedious Indian Summer last year, let's hope for a repeat
     
  19. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    cfs suggests it will be cooler temps over most of the nation.

    [​IMG]

     
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  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Broome and Darwin... Still hot AF for you.
     
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  21. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Isn't it always hot AF for Broome and Darwin? :out:
     
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  22. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just reposting this dialogue between myself and Gerg. Concerning the first week of June and the surrounding climate drivers.



     
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  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's plain as day to me that we're stuck in a short wave pattern for the next 7-10 days. GFS does point to shift to a strong LWT injection (around the 1st JUN, pictured below). EC suggests a split in the jet around this period as well.
    I think we'll see things change thereafter IMO.
     
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  24. kimberlee81

    kimberlee81 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    This answers many questions
     
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  25. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Busy uppers.
     
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  26. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    That looks better for a Monday morning update on yr.no

    The O index is back at +1
     
  27. Xwing

    Xwing One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Update is tasty but as we know - it can upgrade!
     
  28. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    A very nice upgrade indeed.
     
  29. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    That's the spirit. More vibe more minty.
     
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  30. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  31. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Why does yr.no look so good? Because EC shows back to back cold fronts.
    28-29 May shows a nice cold front coming through.
    [​IMG]
    30 May-1 June has yet another cold front straight after the last one. This one has no prefrontal for the higher areas, but less moisture overall. But it's also much colder than the last.
    [​IMG]
    But these two fronts would have quite an impact.
    [​IMG]
    Up to 30cm for this period on the Main Range.
    20cm for Victorian Peaks.

    GFS, EC and GEM all agree that there are two fronts, they are different in the strength and the positioning of the systems.

    GEM just shows the cold fronts clipping Tasmania, not affecting the mainland Alps.
    GFS shows the cold fronts clipping Tasmania and mainland Alps, dropping 5cm on the Main Range, before strengthening to hit NZ.

    Again we need to watch for the next few days. But it's a lot more tastier than yesterday.
     
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  32. Cuddles

    Cuddles One of Us

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    Yep something has been brewing
     
  33. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Now we are starting to see some weather. 540 goodness. Jet fending off the junk up north.
     
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  34. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Winter bombs

    [​IMG]
     
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  35. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Nice foldover. Some busy flags in there.
     
  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS & EC virtually signing from the same hymn sheet on the 29th now.
    Moisture and pressure 'aint indicative of a 'season starter', but it's looking like a start...
     
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  37. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The step (trough) under Sou-West WA is our potential follow up on the 1st, I personally like it better than the 29th at this stage.
     
  38. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Correct, BoM has now retreated to 1900m as well.
     
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  39. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    28-29 is on all the weather models I care about (GEM, GFS, EC, UKMET)
    30 May- 1st June isn't as rock solid, all the models above except UKMET shows a Tassie Clipper with some of them turning the low into a major NZ system.

    The upper influences just seem to prefer NZ at the moment. But given MJO, SAM and the other factors, QBW should be okayish, the snow guns should go on in this period.
     
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  40. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    A little further on possibility.
     
  41. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    Have the models improved dramatically in recent times? I remember not even considering something that was 300+ hours out.
     
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  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nope, still review with much caution IMO.
     
    #1142 POW_hungry, May 22, 2017
    Last edited: May 22, 2017
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  43. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I like you used the word "possibility " LOL.
    May help ease the frothing elsewhere .:)
     
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  44. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    18:00 yr.no update is looking ok - not the usual flip - but plenty of time for it to flop yet.
     
  45. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  47. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    [​IMG]

    CFS active side side of the mjo plum over the continent.Big convection,
    signal on plot. 1 should be excellent divergence aloft should it verify.
     
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  48. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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  49. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Someone needs to add JMA, GEM, NAVGEM, UKMO and CDAS. Gotta complete the set ;)
     
  50. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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