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Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by jwx, Mar 1, 2017.
And the change in anomolies- May and June . Are we headed for an old school Winter ?
Feels like early autumn today. 20 and blazing sunshine in Smelbourne
More an indication of how the LWT & upper jet is fairing for the Autumn season. Any reason why you suggest it's reminiscent of an 'old school winter'?
Not suggesting really- more a question and wishful thinking.
No worries, it's an interesting point though as GFS/EC over recent run periods both have a very westerly flow, indicative of a strengthening polar vortex, low amplitude LWT and blazing upper level jet - noticeably around Aus.
that said, I don't think it has any correlation to winters of the 20 century... Just a general obs as we head into a winter pattern. eg. below
Perth has picked up some 25mm since Friday. Quite a bit under what was progged by the models 4-5 days ago.
Just dawned on me that this probably has some influence from the MJO entering our phase, although appears to be weakening significantly.
GFS 00z run has the polar jet favoring NZ in the first week of June now. Can't wait to see what EC has to say.
Par for the course at this time of year, the models always look great 4-5 days out then reality sets in.
Possibly also related to the upwelling/downwelling phases of the Kelvin Wave ?
EC 00Z run is keeping it's head low over the next 10 days - somewhat uninspiring for Aus resorts.
EC is a stall then east it goes.
EC MJO ens for the month
Yeah, well, it's going to snow on Wednesday above 1700m in NSW. 1-6 cm at this stage. BoM 4 day rule applies.
BOM are being very optimistic for Wednesday PM IMO.
It's looking a lot drier than previous runs and I doubt we'll see much settle below 1900m - a dusting at best above that IMO.
Kosciusko Sounding looking dry and warmish for Wednesday arvo.
The weather couldn't be any duller if it tried to be at the moment. I recall the same last year in Melbourne and then all of a sudden in the final week of May winter hit with a week of cold fronts.
yep, it was a long tedious Indian Summer last year, let's hope for a repeat
cfs suggests it will be cooler temps over most of the nation.
Broome and Darwin... Still hot AF for you.
Isn't it always hot AF for Broome and Darwin?
Just reposting this dialogue between myself and Gerg. Concerning the first week of June and the surrounding climate drivers.
It's plain as day to me that we're stuck in a short wave pattern for the next 7-10 days. GFS does point to shift to a strong LWT injection (around the 1st JUN, pictured below). EC suggests a split in the jet around this period as well.
I think we'll see things change thereafter IMO.
This answers many questions
That looks better for a Monday morning update on yr.no
The O index is back at +1
Update is tasty but as we know - it can upgrade!
A very nice upgrade indeed.
That's the spirit. More vibe more minty.
For those wondering WTF are we getting excited about.
and for the lowlands
Why does yr.no look so good? Because EC shows back to back cold fronts.
28-29 May shows a nice cold front coming through.
30 May-1 June has yet another cold front straight after the last one. This one has no prefrontal for the higher areas, but less moisture overall. But it's also much colder than the last.
But these two fronts would have quite an impact.
Up to 30cm for this period on the Main Range.
20cm for Victorian Peaks.
GFS, EC and GEM all agree that there are two fronts, they are different in the strength and the positioning of the systems.
GEM just shows the cold fronts clipping Tasmania, not affecting the mainland Alps.
GFS shows the cold fronts clipping Tasmania and mainland Alps, dropping 5cm on the Main Range, before strengthening to hit NZ.
Again we need to watch for the next few days. But it's a lot more tastier than yesterday.
Yep something has been brewing
Now we are starting to see some weather. 540 goodness. Jet fending off the junk up north.
Nice foldover. Some busy flags in there.
GFS & EC virtually signing from the same hymn sheet on the 29th now.
Moisture and pressure 'aint indicative of a 'season starter', but it's looking like a start...
The step (trough) under Sou-West WA is our potential follow up on the 1st, I personally like it better than the 29th at this stage.
Correct, BoM has now retreated to 1900m as well.
28-29 is on all the weather models I care about (GEM, GFS, EC, UKMET)
30 May- 1st June isn't as rock solid, all the models above except UKMET shows a Tassie Clipper with some of them turning the low into a major NZ system.
The upper influences just seem to prefer NZ at the moment. But given MJO, SAM and the other factors, QBW should be okayish, the snow guns should go on in this period.
A little further on possibility.
Have the models improved dramatically in recent times? I remember not even considering something that was 300+ hours out.
Nope, still review with much caution IMO.
I like you used the word "possibility " .
May help ease the frothing elsewhere .
18:00 yr.no update is looking ok - not the usual flip - but plenty of time for it to flop yet.
NOAA to develop new global weather model | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Like any in demand technology, it's advancing, agreed. However, as that article reads; the F4-VAR/GFS upgrade last year was largely an advancement in resolution to 13km (it's bold attempt to keep up with EC who run off 9km res).
+300 hours out is still pretty-much pie in the sky stuff IMO.
CFS active side side of the mjo plum over the continent.Big convection,
signal on plot. 1 should be excellent divergence aloft should it verify.
Someone needs to add JMA, GEM, NAVGEM, UKMO and CDAS. Gotta complete the set