Mega Thread The Autumn, winter's not far away thread!

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by jwx, Mar 1, 2017.

  1. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    I have seen the EC also screw up on tropical forecasts many times.

    That is what that image was about. The EC got hurricane tracks
    correct of Sandy and Joaquin when the other models failed.
     
    #1151 jwx, May 22, 2017
    Last edited: May 22, 2017
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  2. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    So GFS is still using Hydrostatic solvers with the new higher resolution or is this just an assumption ?
     
  3. Kieran

    Kieran A Local

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    Temperature in Perisher rose 5C between 7:30pm and 7:51pm this evening. That's... odd.
     
  4. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    As far as know yeah it's still using newton krylov hydrostatic multigrid solvers.
     
  5. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Que Sera, Sera Ski Pass: Gold

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    Getting a firewood delivery next week, so anytime from then should be right for...
    [​IMG]
     
  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Deepening airmass ahead of the change tomorrow.
    Increased winds from the NW (chiefly @ 7:50 this eve), and look where your winds are coming from.
    You know how they say weather changes quickly in the mountains... Well it's true.;)
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  7. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    No pictures of snowmaking tonight for you!
     
  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    From this morning:
     
  9. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    There is a moist pool of subtropical air over parts of sw nsw and likely encroaching
    on the boarder its tucked in just behind the ridge to the east..
     
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  10. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  11. nickxylophone

    nickxylophone Early Days

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    Few flashes and rumbles here in adelaide this evening, not much moisture though which has been fairly standard for this autumn.. on track to be the driest in 12 years or so, unless the 27/28th system comes off for us in a pretty big way. Keen for some cold and wet! Bloody garden is shrivelling up
     
  12. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Balmy night in Melbourne, didn't drop below 15c. Considering the day time average is around 16c it's quite the feat...

    No rain about that i can see
     
  13. phrozen

    phrozen Hard Yards

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    Had some decent rain this morning in Mildura from about 3:30am, along with some lightning and thunder, went on sporadically for just over an hour.
     
  14. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yeh, I think we'll see bugger all here in Melbourne .
     
  15. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM are saying possible snow above 1900m for Wed, Thur, Fri for the NSW resorts. #4DayRule
     
  16. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    I'm rather pessimistic now. The cold fronts in the coming days look to be losing their punch, and Spagplot and EC look terrible for the first week of June. What's with the 10C+ 850T forecast then for days on end?
     
  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Don't be shocked, it isn't even JUNE yet.
    We haven't had any Southerly influence yet, plus we need not forget the outlook is for drier systems this season, in contrast to last season (-ive IOD!).
     
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  18. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    wise words Pow.
    It is early days.
     
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  19. kimberlee81

    kimberlee81 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    300+ hours is the new "we'll grab hold of whatever looks hopeful here in Australia these days".
     
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  20. stridercdh

    stridercdh Addicted

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    There will be snow.
     
  21. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Well I am becoming somewhat convinced it's going to be a slow season to get going... It wouldn't surprise me if we see a lot of subsidence (cold at the surface, warm uppers, inversions) in early June.
     
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  22. stridercdh

    stridercdh Addicted

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    Is this system still on track to deliver the goods?
     
  23. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm thinking clipper.
    [​IMG]

    It's going to get bounced South of us.IMO.
    Sounds familiar ...


    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  24. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS shows a bit of love tho for the SDS optimists among us...
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  25. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

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    I watered my veggie patch at lunchtime. Upper soil layers were quite dry.
     
  26. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Solidly agreeing runs yesterday and a back down today. EC slow with updates today . Not giving up just yet. Ensemble still has a bit of love ( Tassie may do ok ) fwiw.
     
  27. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    00z EC
    same same.

    [​IMG]
     
  28. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM is bullish for Sunday through to Tuesday. Has backed off on Thursday.
     
  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM's latest ENSO Wrap:

    More here:
    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
     
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  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I don't see any reason for it to remain that way. I think Sun-Tues will see a BOM downgrade in the next couple of days following the trend of the major models IMO.
    To be fair, they're hardly suggesting any sort of decent falls, so even if it's accurate it's spilt milk for QB Weekend anyway.
     
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  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think I have an unhealthy obsession with following pilots who love WX:


     
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  32. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    Yes its still looking ok on the 00z over that period Lets see if it can hold serve.

    [​IMG]



    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]
    I like the position of the subtropical ridge on the model, its shifting N where it should be.
     
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  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep, and both EC & GFS have the ridge notably shifting in the first week of June. That sub-trop jet backs off a hell of a lot too - looking much more dynamic beyond the next 7-10 days IMO.

    Splitting hairs I know, but 28th holds not much, 29th is cooler air and some moisture.
     
    #1183 POW_hungry, May 23, 2017
    Last edited: May 23, 2017
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  34. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    We look like we are going into winter, ironically around June 1st, the start of winter... but nonetheless a dramatic shift in the weather pattern.

    As I type, it is currently raining in Box Hill. But isolated showers only.
     
  35. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Must admit despite the desired shifts Latitude wise and the flat( edit ) flatish :) IOD the best 29th has shown is 20 cents tops and sifting through all the models we may be looking beyond 15 days before we get anything significant. Bring on the stacked lows and savage Vorticity
     
    #1185 Kletterer, May 23, 2017
    Last edited: May 23, 2017
  36. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    The shift of the jet had to come.Its what drives the high pressure over the top half of
    the continent during the winter months, and in turn drives the south easterlies across the EQ,
    and drives the wpac monsoon trough. Its all just part of what happens every season.
    Having a interest in the wpac typhoon season the STJ is of interest to me.
     
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  37. kimberlee81

    kimberlee81 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Except, of course, that the first day of winter should be June 22nd!
     
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  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cold air an upgrade across EC and GFS this morning on the 12Z run, both very much in agreement now for Sunday arvo through to Monday 29th.
    I think we'll see snow in resorts from around 12-3pm Sunday. ~15cm IMO.

     
    #1188 POW_hungry, May 24, 2017
    Last edited: May 24, 2017
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  39. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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  40. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    it's getting closer.
     
  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    And highly likely Kosciusko (or anything over 2000m) saw 10-15cm this morning alone with the fall rates that were accumulated between 2-5am!
    34mm in the can at Thredbo TS AWS at the moment and ALL of which fell after midnight.
     
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  42. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    First flake fell on the 23rd;)
     
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  43. Stephen James Allen

    Stephen James Allen Addicted

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    28 and 29 May looking good on a range of models (AXS, GFS) and possibly again 31 June.
     
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  44. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I am up at Falls Creek from the 27th-29th May and will post pics / updates as I can
     
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  45. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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  46. janesweather

    janesweather One of Us

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  47. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Awesome Jane!
    The more detail, the better...
    Would be nice to see your opinion.
     
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  48. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    @Hermon models not suggesting large scale subsidence over the early June,
    period..What the plot indicates is divergence (lift)

    [​IMG]
    very slow moving active mjo moving over to the east . Subsidence sinking air is displayed as
    yellow
     
    #1198 jwx, May 24, 2017
    Last edited: May 24, 2017
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  49. kimberlee81

    kimberlee81 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Don't worry about it - the FC Marketing Dept. will have it well under control! There'll be strategically placed shots showing chin-deep powder only minutes after the first four flakes have landed.
     
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  50. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'll provide the unbiased view ;)
     
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