Mega Thread The Autumn, winter's not far away thread!

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by jwx, Mar 1, 2017.

  1. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    MOdels where like a yo- yo yesterday.
    I had my doubts , thinking it was going to get blocked despite what I could see in some.
    We're not there yet but good to see some weather.
     
  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    IMO it's pretty much locked in.
     
    #1202 POW_hungry, May 24, 2017
    Last edited: May 24, 2017
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  3. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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  4. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    Interesting post JB obviously has a pulse on this thread/board.
     
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  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    There's certainly indications to suggest falls greater than 5-10cm for 28/29 IMO. ;)
     
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  6. Cuddles

    Cuddles One of Us

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    10-15cm for a dusting? seems a lot? I was aware that precipitation was not measured at the Thredbo AWS , It has been down for some time, have they upgraded or installed the heated device? Still a bit early for the shot of the main range. Will check in later. The temp was a tad warm.
     
  7. Cuddles

    Cuddles One of Us

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    Jane you may miss something if you leave the release that late. Or have you had a bo-peep and don't see anything till after tha
    t time?
     
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  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Dusting? Dusting at top of Thredbo (2000m).
    I am simply suggesting heights above the Thredbo AWS may have seen something in the 10-15cm range. Gotta admit, I never saw +30mm falls in any of the models in the last week.
    Thredbo TS AWS actually never dipped into the negs (lowest temp 0.5C @ 4:35am), so I'd say it never had a chance to freeze over, hence no issue with collecting precip perhaps.
     
    #1208 POW_hungry, May 24, 2017
    Last edited: May 24, 2017
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  9. Xwing

    Xwing One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ah upgrade yes. One sees and begins to wonder - hmm, back a few days yes, and upgrade I said. Seems like it might be. Of course it was just my speculation, but hope could prevail. Hmm, tasty, like cheese, yes, hmm, makes me think of food it does.
     
  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'll be bold, but I reckon this is our season starter, ~5th. Just saying.
    LWT lines up perfectly across the majors for it.
    [​IMG]
     
    #1210 POW_hungry, May 24, 2017
    Last edited: May 24, 2017
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  11. fmdc9

    fmdc9 Hard Yards

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  12. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wow.
    A lot of change in last 24 hrs .
    BUT we talking 300 hrs here.
    Yesterday arvo it was a goner and a flat line beyond ??
     
  13. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    As i said earlier possibility.
     
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  14. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    500 vort could still do with improvement
     
  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    it's now looking better than the NOAA/NCEP you posted Monday, IMO. I hear you.
     
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  16. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    Agree Its showing a very broad elongated trough not tight and no closed isobar.
    Whats promising tbh is the A forecast for june..Extremly colder than the May forecast.
    The extending troughs/Cfronts should have bite.
    [​IMG]



    [​IMG]
     
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  17. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Whats your thoughts on a lesser chance of Lower Level Warm Air Advection with things as they stand ?
     
  18. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    There's always warm advection upwind of the trough axis
    in the -neg vort zones. Whats on those plots posted atm
    imo would rely on the pressure gradient for a worthwhile
    storm not of the the garden variety.
     
  19. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    And the rotten Canberra fog .
     
  20. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
    My new favourite parameter. The spag look-a-like ;)

    These lines are critical thicknesses and are used to represent the rain-snow line. The 540dm line is the white line and there are five other different thicknesses. Ideally you want all of those lines north of the Alps.

    You can see in the Bight, a developing cold front node at the end of the EC run. If it stays strong, it would match up with @POW_hungry's ~5 June LWT theory. EPS Control looks okayish... Best to wait for EC Deterministic to show this period before making any definite assumptions.
     
    #1220 Jellybeans, May 24, 2017
    Last edited: May 24, 2017
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  21. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nice . All on the one image.
     
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  22. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    EPS control runs were giving some weight to pow.

    [​IMG]
     
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  23. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Saw that just before. Changed post :)
    I think I will be using that critical thickness chart a lot now though!
     
  24. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    Don't think there is a better tool for locating upper-level troughs and temp then Geo heights.

    Some of the old spaghetti thickness plots were in use before the satellite era.:)
     
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  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Polar air injection anyone?
    N.B. EC Ensemble has it ridged and clipping at the moment.


     
    #1225 POW_hungry, May 25, 2017
    Last edited: May 25, 2017
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  26. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    V Niiiice.
    I'm liking the vibe over last two days runs where the ridging and blocker H's appear to be diminishing .
    LWT can come to the partay.
    edit : on my punter access level charts ;)
     
    #1226 nfip, May 25, 2017
    Last edited: May 25, 2017
  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    But it is only GFS and 300hrs out!;)
     
  28. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Copy that.
    Was the first , make that the second thing I looked at !
     
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  29. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I can only get to 240 hrs on my EC models.
     
  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  31. Arsas

    Arsas One of Us

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    Nothing better than waking up and seeing this on the MW Perisher forecast. Nice FL as well.
     
  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Couldn't think of a worse resource for snow forecasting IMO, but yeah, looks nice.
     
    #1232 POW_hungry, May 25, 2017
    Last edited: May 25, 2017
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  33. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Don't you get Weatherzone Pro? They have EPS to 360hrs
     
  34. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think it's based on GFS. But it's a bit basic.
     
  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    With a dash of Regae's Jindy bud.
     
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  36. Arsas

    Arsas One of Us

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    I am only a punter so it may be, but it works for me. I am starting to understand some of the charts you guys post and it is all slowly starting to make sense, but sometimes a few little icons is what is needed to help with the SDS.
    I flick between MW, YR, Snowatch, Weatherzone and this site, I can usually put all the pieces together and get a decent picture of the weather forecast.
     
  37. gareth_oau

    gareth_oau Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    A nice cool 6 degrees here this morning.

    I'm loving that my winter wardrobe is finally getting an airing
     
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  38. alexd

    alexd One of Us

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    I do enjoy the daily morning MW read once the Grasshopper forecasts start happening. Obviously not to be used as the only source but it's nice to have a single location detailed there as opposed to having to make sense of maps of the whole place. Good for a quick glance. These threads are much better for procrastinating/snow daydreaming.
     
  39. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes. true
    The Ens out to 360.
    Only get the 850 info no 500 or higher tho...
    ( edit might flick the an email ...why no 500 etc.)
    This region only , not all of Aus and surrounds
    MSLP / thickness / rainfall / wind and 850 as below ( to compare with #1230 ^^)

    ECMWF Det only out to 240.( makes sense)
    [​IMG]
     
    #1239 nfip, May 25, 2017
    Last edited: May 25, 2017
  40. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Would anyone have thoughts about Yr.no snowfall totals, compared to EC snow accum charts on AccuPro, etc?
     
  41. Roarkie

    Roarkie Addicted

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    BOM Climate Outlook for Winter 2017.
     
  42. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    With the current warm anoms off SA and the cool anoms off WA
    it already appears as a positive IOD. Pacific enso anoms along
    the EQ are also cooling not warming atm.

    [​IMG]

    edit fix typo.
     
    #1242 jwx, May 25, 2017
    Last edited: May 25, 2017
  43. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Positive IOD I think you mean. I think you are quite right about that. It will have at least some determental effect to our snow season.
     
  44. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    cheers typo:)

    Looking @plots using the 20th as pivotal point in the month
    all enso areas are cooling across EQ.
    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]

    No need to post 1.2 it don't matter but i assure you its well into the neg.
     
  45. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    You remember this post jelly last friday. One of the best now agrees with me.

    although PR is a little late to to party.its nice to see.



    [​IMG]
     
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  46. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Contrast for the 2 periods of interest.
     
  47. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Layer of ice on the car at 8pm in Canberra. :woohoo:
     
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  48. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    [​IMG]
    Model is starting to show what was to be expected with the forcing on the belt
    in swio from the mjo. Rolling systems from deformations in the jet. The longer
    the madden julian oscillation hangs in the indo the better.
     
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  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC putting the 5JUN into some context. No obvious agreement between EC and GFS as yet, with GFS going for a cut off low at this point.
    Looking a little drier than previous runs, but still looking to had big potential.
     
  50. Bien E

    Bien E Hard Yards

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    Can we expect mid station to be open after these initial falls?