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Mega Thread The Autumn, winter's not far away thread!

Discussion in 'Weather' started by jwx, Mar 1, 2017.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Where?
    Official opening isn't for another two weeks unless we see extraordinary falls. Too early to tell.
     
  2. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Even if the snow falls, the resorts won't have the staff to open them
     
  3. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nothing will be open until the long weekend regardless. The perisher staff will initially concentrate on getting Front Valley up and running. If Mid Station and Goats etc are operational that would be a bonus.
     
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  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    They certainly can/will if there's sufficient snow/weekend demand/media hype. As part of summer grooming crew we opened BB1 at buller a weekend early in 2002 IIRC. There are exceptions!

    It's a ski resort's wet dream to open ahead of the season, particularly if other resorts are unable to.
     
    #1254 POW_hungry, May 26, 2017
    Last edited: May 26, 2017
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  5. Stephen James Allen

    Stephen James Allen Addicted

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    Does anyone observe that the low pressure systems are a little stronger this year or the highs a little weaker, colder air and 540 line further north than usual, and cold fronts a little more frequent?
     
  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Evidence of a well established LWT IMO. Wouldn't say it's big anomaly though.
    [​IMG]
     
  7. Team Weasel

    Team Weasel One of Us

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    If the amount of snow in some forecasts falls, the BC might be on next weekend. Eastern aspects with wind transportation could be good to go.

    May take my rock skis up and suss it out.
     
  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Starting to see some agreement around the 4th JUN (for the 5th). Still waxing and waning through runs though.
    If the fetch mirrors the LWT it has potential to be a proper polar outbreak IMO.


    [​IMG]
     
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  9. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    IMO - chances of opening next weekend at PV are quite low.

    In 2015 there was already 20-30cm on the ground by early June - followed by 10+ days of super dry/cold nights to pump the snow out - probably the best machine snow ever made in Oz. And even then they only managed to open on the Friday of the LWE which was similar dates to this year

    That was an exceptional opening weekend. With V8/Carpet on the Friday. Then Quad to mid plus HV Tbar along with Mitchell T on PV and the carpets. The Friday was sensational - the rest of the weekend and even Monday until 2ish was just Pitt St with massive queues as the people really did come from everywhere.

    Whereas last year was a dog start and the carpark barely went back 6 rows all weekend - with the V8 only firing up on the Monday with half a slope open next to Mitchell. Ski Patrol were busy all day...

    2012 was the exception with the charity day the weekend before QBWE and becoming the whole weekend - Sat was June 2nd, and was an excellent day to kick start the modern season pass era. Whereas Sunday was damp and loveless reminder of our marginal conditions. And we hit a roo just below Wilson's Valley at 2ish

    All that said. When you look at the current forecast for the next week - the first weekend in June is showing stunning weather with good potential for some solid falls between now and then - with the machines probably on continuously from Sunday until Thursday mid morning.

    Surely they are working up a plan to turn this into marketing gold by opening a week early. Obviously it all depends on what falls on Sunday/Monday - if that's half a dump and the machines can run full time - then they could easily start work on prepping FV from Monday onwards.

    Highly doubtful they would bother opening Mid Station that weekend but if all this does happen then Mid will surely be open on QB as it's part of Peak Festival and ski in ski out at Mid really brings it all together to make it look and feel like a "snow resort" and get those advance bookings flowing. Kaching ....

    (ps - the Quad is almost always operating on the QBWE for foot traffic up to the top as well as Mid.)
     
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  10. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  11. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Might be some good precip
     
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  12. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Need an obs thread for 27-31May...

     
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  13. VSG

    VSG Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    10 degrees here on the lower north coast NSW last coupla nights. Cannot wait for that front to give us some cool days.. been mid twenties for about a week. :)
     
  14. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Heading up the hill this morning. Currently in Myrtelford and its a mild 7c, broken clouds.
     
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  15. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Some good ingredients in the POWmeister system atm. Is GFS.
     
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  16. stridercdh

    stridercdh Addicted

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    Hi All,

    I'm heading up to Buller and/or Stirling on Monday for a look around after the storm. Maybe some opportunistic snow play/ski etc if enough snow accumulates. If anyone is interested you're welcome to tag along. Heading up from Melb SE suburbs and can pick up/drop off en route. PM if interested.

    Cheers
     
    #1266 stridercdh, May 27, 2017
    Last edited: May 27, 2017
  17. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    [​IMG]
    @Kletterer a few - neg/c coolish mornings are forecasted for your neck of woods.
     
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  18. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Actually you just reminded me to get more work gloves. :thumbs:
     
  19. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Feed from Indian Ocean
     
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  20. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Oooh ^ that'll work!
     
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  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Gotta long way to go though unfortunately, I had thought it would be a little more locked in run to run by now, but GFS is lax on it and EC doesn't like it one bit.
    18Z GFS has it as good system but a clipper as a cut off into the Tasman. It might have to be fed to the dogs (NZ) ;).
     
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  22. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes last runs are sporiadic. Probably peak and slip early but you never know . Understandably with the wider spaced runs EC stays a little shy of Anomolies.
     
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  23. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  24. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    [​IMG]
    Worth watching 4/5/6,atm ec is showing a reasonable cold shot. Lets see how it looks
    on the model latter into the week.
     
  25. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
    Looks good on GFS too.
     
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  26. Cuddles

    Cuddles One of Us

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    Agree, Thredbo AWS no measures the precip, but it always freezes up, as does Perisher at round -5.. as do I.
     
  27. Cuddles

    Cuddles One of Us

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    No, maybe for opening.. Be exceptional
     
  28. stridercdh

    stridercdh Addicted

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    I have a day off tomorrow, perfect for exploring the hills. Can anyone tell me which had the better snowfalls today between Buller/Stirling and Baw Baw? Will head up in the morning.
     
  29. Charles

    Charles Addicted Ski Pass: Gold

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    I saw Baw Baw on the news and there was a nice little covering there. Is it tomorrow that snow will also be falling?

    UPDATE from Baw Baw twitter - 12cm and still falling.
     
    #1279 Charles, May 28, 2017
    Last edited: May 28, 2017
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  30. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    What have we here ? Gutters and strikes
     
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  31. stridercdh

    stridercdh Addicted

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    Thanks @Charles. Slight falls tomorrow I believe, but the next big front is due Tuesday. I was perhaps leaning towards Stirling with the hope that there is better coverage up top.
     
  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC for the 5/6JUN.
     
  33. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Quoting a mate in another Forum...

    "latest models showing some COLD SE air
    for wed
    with a huge hook over the alps (upper level low)
    ToTots for the alps look insane "

    [​IMG]
     
    #1283 nfip, May 29, 2017
    Last edited: May 29, 2017
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  34. Stephen James Allen

    Stephen James Allen Addicted

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  35. Stephen James Allen

    Stephen James Allen Addicted

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  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's all coming down to the placement of this high as it ebbs and flows through GFS & EC. EC & AXS seem to be alike. Needs more runs to survive IMO.
     
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  37. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    We're talking about 2 different systems. Scroll up and you'll see we're talking about the following week (5/6/7JUN).
    Yes, tomorrow's system is drrry by comparison to yesterday...
     
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  38. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    yeah just twigged !!!
    deleted post.
    was looking at a few models and ....wot dafuq ????
     
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  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    General alignment between GFS, EC & AXS today. Needs more though.
    Looking like a broad cut-off with more localised falls reliant on the onshore flow, on GFS's 18Z run.
    [​IMG]
     
  40. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    The 12Z EC Mothership.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]

    Nice looking models.Upper-level cut/off cyclone. EC keeps em rolling.
     
    #1290 jwx, May 29, 2017
    Last edited: May 29, 2017
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  41. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    This run looks rather Volatile .
     
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  42. cookieman

    cookieman One of Us

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    YR.No has gone mad for period 6-8 June for mt.Hotham
    Detailed long term forecast
    Date Time Forecast Temp. Precipitation Wind

    Monday05/06/2017 22:00–04:00 -4° 0 mm [​IMG]Light breeze, 2 m/s from north
    04:00–10:00 -3° 0 mm [​IMG]Light breeze, 2 m/s from north
    10:00–16:00 1° 0 mm [​IMG]Light breeze, 3 m/s from north-northwest
    16:00–22:00 0° 0 mm [​IMG]Gentle breeze, 5 m/s from north-northwest
    Tuesday06/06/2017 22:00–04:00 -2° 0.7 mm [​IMG]Moderate breeze, 7 m/s from north-northwest
    04:00–10:00 -3° 15.9 mm [​IMG]Moderate breeze, 6 m/s from north
    10:00–16:00 -5° 9.8 mm [​IMG]Moderate breeze, 6 m/s from north-northwest
    16:00–22:00 -6° 9.1 mm [​IMG]Moderate breeze, 6 m/s from north-northwest
    Wednesday07/06/2017 22:00–04:00 -5° 5.6 mm [​IMG]Moderate breeze, 7 m/s from northwest
    04:00–10:00 -5° 2.8 mm [​IMG]Gentle breeze, 5 m/s from northwest
    10:00–16:00 -5° 3.0 mm [​IMG]Moderate breeze, 7 m/s from northwest
    16:00–22:00 -5° 3.2 mm [​IMG]Moderate breeze, 6 m/s from northwest
    Thursday08/06/2017 22:00–04:00 -5° 1.7 mm [​IMG]Moderate breeze, 6 m/s from northwest
    04:00–10:00 -5° 3.1 mm [​IMG]Moderate breeze, 7 m/s from northwest
     
  43. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like EC got the @janesweather memo... Hot dang. Season starter is back on.
    [​IMG]
     
  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nup, it's progging a beast! oh snap.
     
  45. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    [​IMG]

    check the 534 line.
     
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  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Solid. Would like a tighter wrap for intensity but it'll do for now. Looking good.
     
  47. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    you mean gradient or shape ?
     
  48. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Guess what !!.
    Amazing what a few days , 20 cents and an outlook for plenty cold will do .
    https://www.perisher.com.au/plan-your-trip/activities/opening-weekend

     
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  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS gives green light again.
    Upper levels mapped quite broad on AXS, EC and GFS's 18Z run. Restricting vorticity/instability. Pressure gradient looks ok on EC. I'll take 2 pls!
     
  50. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    At this stage, I reckon the V8 will be open on opening weekend. Probably 20ish cm this week + whatever falls on the 4-6 June period + snowmaking (which will be decent). I reckon Perisher can open the V8 fairly easy if we don't get a sudden large blocking high (which charts don't currently show)