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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by jwx, Mar 1, 2017.
00z GFS not on it.
Cut off .
Steady as she goes.
GFS has had it as a hot potato for the past week. Today's 18Z run wasn't far off EC's though.
Given it's now edging closer to 144 hours I reckon it's about 60% chance ATM. Next coupla days will make/break it IMO.
and they have guns to middle station so there's 1/2 decent run from there down goats to the bottom..
I think Happy Valley also , I don't pay much attention to it tho
GFS is a more traditional line with the low punching up into SA and then moving east.
Nice moisture stream from the EQ and also from SAfrica saturating the tasman.
Now that you mention it.
Look at Spag ...shows cut-off in between these 2 .
and you do have confidence in GFS. ?
I've been not so until we get closer in to 4 days 'ish ...
@nfip the forecast is usually somewhere in between the EC/GFS.
I lean towards the GFS solution atm. Any reason you see why i
I'm basing what i think on ens and cfs combo.
I'm well aware its sticking my neck out and there's no shortage of
It sucks living at the wrong end of the country
As they say QLDS is great for holiday but i would not want to live there. Dry season sucks.
I only ask out of interest as GFS seems to be not so reliable further out....
EC on the other hand more so can take it to the bank (mind you it is the weather).
My neck also on very same block many times here over the years.
The main point here is that it's now starting to show on all major models (The Canuck puts it somewhere between AXS & EC), so things are heading in the right direction IMO.
I lived up there for 10 years back in the late 80's - 90's.
(and a few years mid 70's )
Had to get back down South where I belong.
The Rain-Snow thicknesses seem to line up with the cut off pool on EC.
Cold temperatures during the period.
EC snow accum shows 40-50cm for the system.
Pretty amazing... I'd expect a downgrade though.
Both scenarios are win win.
Exactly, all models show it in some sort of snow event.
I'm working on a retirement plan and Queensland doesn't even rate a mention.
The 2 metre temps outlook seems in our favour as well (re snowfarming ) .
AXS coming into view. Good run up with long wave influence.
AXS seems half way between GFS and EC. Starts off nicely, but cuts off with possible wandering cold pools.
Anyway, if the charts look favourable tomorrow morning, it will be time for a new prediction thread.
GFS 06Z looking similar to the 00Z run. It risks warm air advection if it peaks in the bight as GFS suggests, would rather a AXS/EC scenario IMO.
IMO GFS is not great.
However, it is GFS.
Do you Spag ?
Yeah, probably refer to it once a day or two. Doesn't give me trends though. It's good for the big picture.
All over the place atm IMO.
I've always thought it very reliable.
Last week tho it was rather flat then we got this taster last night.
I see it, but I don't believe it
There is quite a difference between the modeled lows,
GFS looks more a surface low.Those tend to be more
unpredictable with intensity.
The access models cc posted also looks a surface low/trough.
Neither do I, 50 cm in three days.
Bad stream influence ?
Yep I am just going to forget I never checked GFS this arvo/evening. It went a bit whack IMO.
It's not 50cm at those temps, it's much much more
Will not happen - too good to be true
This morning's EC
EC looks more cutoff / ECL today, certainly not as nice as yesterday.
Lots of volatility with the models on this one, I wouldnt want to be making a call on this yet.
While GFS runs for president EC, AXS and The Canuck stay on track for the 5/6/7 JUN. BoM hinting it also likes it with the 7-day forecast.
Ignoring GFS for now, I think we can reasonably expect a snow bearing system in this date range. A cut off scenario looks likely IMO.
Looks tidy, maybe a season starter. Not quite a cut off says AXS, pulling up all that cold air, and a little earlier than GFS.
ENS still looking positive with a cutoff deepening low.
EC eps and GFS ens are in bed together on this system coming off
In case anyone's wondering what a wet dream cut off low potentially brings with it (exclusive of rain after WA advection). NB. This is not a prediction.
For those who can't bother to convert, that shows about 60-70cm for the Main Range area. I think that's pretty laughable. It all depends on the positioning of that low.
We are heading in the right direction
and (correct me if I'm wrong), a good chance of snow for the CT's
It could be yr 2000 all over again, or even better, especially given what is whirling around below Africa at the moment.
Brutally cold anoms this is getting boring now all ens +deterministics are
displaying a severe cold snap is brewing.Nothing more i can add here.
Way too far out to say at this point IMO. But as @jwx says above, all signs are pointing to a cold outbreak ATM. Wait until tomorrow when the pendulum swings a little less.
An hour until winter in Melbourne.
Been an excellent pre-season.
Hoping for a good winter