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Mega Thread The Autumn, winter's not far away thread!

Discussion in 'Weather' started by jwx, Mar 1, 2017.

  1. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    00z GFS not on it.
    Cut off .
    Steady as she goes.
     
  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS has had it as a hot potato for the past week. Today's 18Z run wasn't far off EC's though.
    Given it's now edging closer to 144 hours I reckon it's about 60% chance ATM. Next coupla days will make/break it IMO.
     
  3. Cuddles

    Cuddles One of Us

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    mmm

    https://www.perisher.com.au/perisher-news/perisher-now/resort-videos
     
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  4. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    and they have guns to middle station so there's 1/2 decent run from there down goats to the bottom..
    I think Happy Valley also , I don't pay much attention to it tho
     
  5. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    GFS is a more traditional line with the low punching up into SA and then moving east.

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]





    [​IMG]




    [​IMG]
    Nice moisture stream from the EQ and also from SAfrica saturating the tasman.
     
    #1305 jwx, May 29, 2017
    Last edited: May 29, 2017
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  6. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Now that you mention it.
    Look at Spag ...shows cut-off in between these 2 .

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  7. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    and you do have confidence in GFS. ?
    I've been not so until we get closer in to 4 days 'ish ...
     
  8. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    @nfip the forecast is usually somewhere in between the EC/GFS.
    I lean towards the GFS solution atm. Any reason you see why i
    should not?

    I'm basing what i think on ens and cfs combo.

    I'm well aware its sticking my neck out and there's no shortage of
    choppers about.:)
     
    #1308 jwx, May 29, 2017
    Last edited: May 29, 2017
  9. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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  10. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    As they say QLDS is great for holiday but i would not want to live there. Dry season sucks.
     
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  11. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I only ask out of interest as GFS seems to be not so reliable further out....
    EC on the other hand more so can take it to the bank (mind you it is the weather).
    My neck also on very same block many times here over the years.
     
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  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    The main point here is that it's now starting to show on all major models (The Canuck puts it somewhere between AXS & EC), so things are heading in the right direction IMO.
     
  13. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Mate.
    I lived up there for 10 years back in the late 80's - 90's.
    (and a few years mid 70's )
    Had to get back down South where I belong.
     
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  14. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    4-7 June
    [​IMG]
    The Rain-Snow thicknesses seem to line up with the cut off pool on EC.
    [​IMG]
    Cold temperatures during the period.
    EC snow accum shows 40-50cm for the system.
    [​IMG]
    Pretty amazing... I'd expect a downgrade though.
     
    #1314 Jellybeans, May 29, 2017
    Last edited: May 29, 2017
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  15. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    Both scenarios are win win.
     
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  16. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Exactly, all models show it in some sort of snow event.
     
  17. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm working on a retirement plan and Queensland doesn't even rate a mention.
     
  18. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The 2 metre temps outlook seems in our favour as well (re snowfarming ) .
     
  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS coming into view. Good run up with long wave influence.

     
  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    AXS seems half way between GFS and EC. Starts off nicely, but cuts off with possible wandering cold pools.
     
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  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Anyway, if the charts look favourable tomorrow morning, it will be time for a new prediction thread.
     
  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS 06Z looking similar to the 00Z run. It risks warm air advection if it peaks in the bight as GFS suggests, would rather a AXS/EC scenario IMO.
    [​IMG]
     
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  23. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO GFS is not great.
    However, it is GFS.
     
  24. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  25. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Do you Spag ?
    [​IMG]
     
  26. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, probably refer to it once a day or two. Doesn't give me trends though. It's good for the big picture.
     
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  27. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    All over the place atm IMO.
     
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  28. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I've always thought it very reliable.
    Last week tho it was rather flat then we got this taster last night.
     
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  29. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    #snowinstrangeplaces?
     
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  30. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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  31. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    There is quite a difference between the modeled lows,
    GFS looks more a surface low.Those tend to be more
    unpredictable with intensity.

    The access models cc posted also looks a surface low/trough.
     
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  32. Stephen James Allen

    Stephen James Allen Addicted

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  33. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bad stream influence ?
     
  34. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep I am just going to forget I never checked GFS this arvo/evening. It went a bit whack IMO.
     
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  35. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's not 50cm at those temps, it's much much more

    Will not happen - too good to be true
     
  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    This morning's EC

    [​IMG]
     
  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC looks more cutoff / ECL today, certainly not as nice as yesterday.
    Lots of volatility with the models on this one, I wouldnt want to be making a call on this yet.
     
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  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    While GFS runs for president EC, AXS and The Canuck stay on track for the 5/6/7 JUN. BoM hinting it also likes it with the 7-day forecast.
    Ignoring GFS for now, I think we can reasonably expect a snow bearing system in this date range. A cut off scenario looks likely IMO.
     
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  39. Stephen James Allen

    Stephen James Allen Addicted

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    [​IMG]
    Looks tidy, maybe a season starter. Not quite a cut off says AXS, pulling up all that cold air, and a little earlier than GFS.
     
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  40. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    ENS still looking positive with a cutoff deepening low.


    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]
     
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  41. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    [​IMG]

    EC eps and GFS ens are in bed together on this system coming off
     
    #1341 jwx, May 30, 2017
    Last edited: May 30, 2017
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  42. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  43. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    In case anyone's wondering what a wet dream cut off low potentially brings with it (exclusive of rain after WA advection). NB. This is not a prediction.
     
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  44. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    For those who can't bother to convert, that shows about 60-70cm for the Main Range area. I think that's pretty laughable. It all depends on the positioning of that low.
     
  45. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    We are heading in the right direction
     
  46. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    and (correct me if I'm wrong), a good chance of snow for the CT's
     
  47. Stephen James Allen

    Stephen James Allen Addicted

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    It could be yr 2000 all over again, or even better, especially given what is whirling around below Africa at the moment.
     
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  48. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    [​IMG]



    [​IMG]

    Brutally cold anoms this is getting boring now all ens +deterministics are
    displaying a severe cold snap is brewing.Nothing more i can add here.
     
    #1348 jwx, May 30, 2017
    Last edited: May 30, 2017
  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Way too far out to say at this point IMO. But as @jwx says above, all signs are pointing to a cold outbreak ATM. Wait until tomorrow when the pendulum swings a little less.
     
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  50. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    An hour until winter in Melbourne.
    Been an excellent pre-season.
    Hoping for a good winter:thumbs: